Regardless of Donald Trump or Joe Biden winning the US presidential election on Tuesday (3/11/2020), both options will similarly be advantageous for Indonesia.
By
KRIS MADA
·5 minutes read
AP PHOTO/STEVEN SENNE
Election officer Doreen Manzi (right), assists voters in an initial direct vote at several polling stations in the basement of Saint Anthony of Padua Church, in Revere, Massachusetts, Monday (19/10/2020).
JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Regardless of Donald Trump or Joe Biden winning the US presidential election on Tuesday (3/11/2020), both options will similarly be advantageous for Indonesia. This is because the US still urgently needs Indonesia’s ability to maintain a dynamic balance in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, Habibie Center ASEAN studies head Ahmad aseanIbrahim Al-Muttaqi in Jakarta is of the opinion that Indonesia may prefer a Republican government. This is because Republicans are more open to free markets, are not fussy about environmental and human rights issues and can relate to the conservatism embedded in Indonesia’s governance. Having a Republican government therefore could ease Indonesia-US relations.
“Unfortunately, Trump is often considered very un-Republican and over the past four years has only caused a lot of disruption, not only for the US, but for the rest of the world too, including Indonesia,” said Ibrahim.
On the other hand, under Biden, according to Ibrahim, there is the assumption that he will have to restore global relations. However, some Indonesians are not very fond of Democratic governments.
US-Indonesia relations
Regarding US-Indonesia relations, Ibrahim said that the Trump administration had only recently paid attention to Indonesia. Siswanto, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) US foreign policy expert, did not deny that there was the impression that Trump had ignored Indonesia and much of Southeast Asia recently. However, there were indications that Trump attempted to amend that policy, as the global situation has called for the US to lobby Indonesia. “If not, Indonesia could grow close to China, which would be unfavorable for the US,” he said.
Neither Biden nor Trump want to lose Indonesia amid the US-China rivalry. There are at least three reasons why Indonesia has become a struggle for the two large countries.
Volunteer election poll worker Cecilia Chaboudy-Dow joins demonstrators as they stand across the street from the federal courthouse in Houston, Monday, Nov. 2, 2020, before a hearing in federal court involving drive-thru ballots cast in Harris County. The lawsuit was brought by conservative Texas activists, who have railed against expanded voting access in Harris County, in an effort to invalidate nearly 127,000 votes in Houston because the ballots were cast at drive-thru polling centers established during the pandemic.
First, Indonesia is the most populous Muslim-majority country in the world and the country’s stance can help amend the images of Washington and Beijing in the global Muslim community. Second, Indonesia is considered ASEAN’s traditional leader, whereby Indonesia’s attitude is often reflected as the overall attitude of the region.
“Other ASEAN members may lean towards China or the US, but ASEAN will still be considered neutral. It’s a different story if Indonesia takes a stand,” said US international relations lecturer Faisal Karim at Bina Nusantara (Binus) University.
Another reason that Indonesia is being contested by both the US and China is the practice of free and active politics, which is then translated into maintaining a dynamic balance in the region. Amid increasing tensions, Jakarta and its ASEAN partners have to continue seeking ways to defuse the situation.
Regional and global
Despite being beneficial for Indonesia, according to Sisanto, Trump’s victory could negatively impact regions and the globe. Regionally, tensions due to the US-China rivalry will only increase. During Trump’s administration, Washington had publicly invited a number of countries to become hostile to China. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent visit to Asia over the past month had been part of those efforts.
Globally, Trump’s victory would only hamper global economic recovery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump is considered a fierce protectionist and continues to pull the US away from multilateral mechanisms. In fact, a number of parties have already agreed that recovery from the pandemic would require global cooperation.
AP PHOTO/ ANDREW HARNIK
Silhouette of the United States presidential candidate from the Democratic Party and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a drive-in campaign at Broward College, Coconut Creek, Florida, Thursday (29/10/2020).
Siswanto said it was not certain that Biden could immediately correct Washington’s attitudes towards Beijing. However, there is still a chance that Biden could attenuate tensions compared to the Trump era.
Regarding the US presidential election, Biden, Trump and nine other candidates need to win at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes. A series of polls have shown that Biden only really has a chance of winning 111 electoral votes, while Trump has a chance of winning 66. As for the other 183, the results are not yet known. Meanwhile, both Biden and Trump have a slim chance of winning the remaining 178 votes.
The results of the opinion polls for the 178 electoral votes were slightly above the margin of error, indicating that there are chances for change to occur. Meanwhile, for the 183 votes, the results of the polls were almost equivalent to the 3 percent margin of error. As a result, it is too difficult to predict who will win the 183 electoral votes.
Trump still has the chance of winning in dozens of states with less than 10 electors.
Opinion polls do indicate, however, that Biden has a better chance of winning more votes. In fact, Biden has a chance of winning in states with many House votes, such as California and New York with 84 House votes. However, Trump still has the chance of winning in dozens of states with less than 10 electors. It is important to note that the US presidential race takes place at the electoral level, as opposed to winning votes nationally like in Indonesia or many other countries.
This system then allows candidates who nationally get fewer votes to still have a chance at winning the elections and be elected as President, as supporters’ votes are spread across a number of electoral colleges.
This, among others, was seen when Trump won the presidential election in 2016. At that time, Trump’s national vote was far behind Hillary Clinton’s, but Trump won more support from the electoral colleges, which allowed him to assume the seat at the White House.
