Challenges Ahead for Kim Jong-un

Many refuse to believe that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will actually denuclearize his country as he has agreed with United States President Donald Trump.

AFP PHOTO/ED JONES

A conductor changes the newspaper to the latest edition showing images of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore, at a news stand on a subway platform of the Pyongyang metro on June 12, 2018. United States President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un became on June 12 the first sitting US and North Korean leaders to meet, shake hands and negotiate to end a decades-old nuclear stand-off.

Many refuse to believe that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will actually denuclearize his country as he has agreed with US President Donald Trump. Kim’s father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il, met with two South Korean presidents and committed to denuclearize North Korea in return for economic aid. As it turned out, however, the country continued its nuclear weapons program until Kim Jong-un stepped into power.

Several Western media have stated that Trump might have made a mistake for agreeing to meet with Kim Jong-un. In other words, the Singapore summit may very well be remembered as a historic event without any meaningful, positive impact.

On the other hand, considering that the Singapore summit was the fruit of long preparation – including Kim’s two talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, his two meetings with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, US State Secretary Mike Pompeo’s two visits to Pyongyang and a series of other meetings between high-ranking officials – many are optimistic that, this time around, Kim may be serious about his denuclearization pledge.

In order to understand this, we need to look at Kim’s speech in April at the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. He said at the time that the country had finished developing nuclear weapons in 2017, after which the country was “officially” a nuclear power and so no further nuclear testing would be needed. Kim said that, once North Korea became a nuclear power, it could concentrate its development efforts on social welfare. North Korea’s ruling party also stated that the cessation of nuclear testing was the path towards global denuclearization (xinhuanet.com, Apr. 21, 2018).

AFP PHOTO/POOL/ANTHONY WALLACE

President Donald Trump (right) walks out with North Korea\'s leader Kim Jong-un (left) after taking part in a signing ceremony at the end of their historic US-North Korea summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore on June 12, 2018.

It is not easy to discern what these statements mean. However, let us not forget that North Korea may be the world’s last closed communist country – the last remaining piece of the Cold War and post-World War II ideological warfare to still exist. The Soviet Union has collapsed; Cuba has begun to open up and China has become an economic giant with numerous start-ups.

In this context, it is understandable that the current North Korean leadership is facing difficulties in positioning the country amid global geopolitics. Its leader will eventually need to decide whether to allow his country to live in the decaying Cold War atmosphere or to breath in the jubilantly fresh air of the new millennium.

Nevertheless, it will not be easy for North Korea to change. First, the country must obtain a guarantee that it will not be attacked by the United States. On the other hand, North Korea must change without shifting its geopolitics: Pyongyang remains a friend of Beijing. In addition, any change must not lead to domestic destabilization.