Voters Finalizing Decisions on Political Parties

Billboards about Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidate Pair number 01 Joko Widodo-Ma\'ruf Amin and Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidate Pair number 02 Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno are installed on Jl. Arteri Permata Hijau, Kebayoran Lama, South Jakarta, Wednesday (20/3/2019). The latest survey conducted by Kompas R&D from Feb. 22 to March 5 shows that the electability of Joko Widodo-Ma\'ruf Amin is 49.2 percent, while Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno 37.4 percent.Choosing political parties has decidedly caused less excitement than choosing the presidential candidate pair. Less than a month before the 2019 election, swing voters have remained relatively stagnant in deciding their choice of political party. On the other hand, the political parties associated with the presidential candidates have benefited from this year’s simultaneous election.

Greater public attention on the presidential election has neglected the contest of political parties and legislative candidates. Even now, in the final phase of the legislative campaign, voters remain unenthusiastic in following the intricacies of the legislative election. It is no wonder, then, that many voters remain undecided and others even clueless about whom to vote for at all legislative tiers.

This indicates that political parties have plenty of work left to do, especially in drawing voters’ attention amid the focus on the presidential election. The results of the March 2019 Kompas survey show no significant changes in voters’ choices for the legislative election. The number of undecided voters has remained stagnant since last October.

However, comparing the results of the October 2018 and March 2019 surveys reveal a change in vote distribution among political parties, especially regarding the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar. Incidentally, both these parties are part of the coalition backing the Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin pair. The March 2019 survey recorded a 26.9 percent electability rate for PDI-P, 3 percent lower than its electability rate of 29.9 percent in the October 2018 survey. Nevertheless, PDI-P still has the highest electability rate among political parties. If its electability is maintained over the next month, PDI-P will be the first political party to win two consecutive elections in the Reform Era.

However, other parties are beginning to encroach on PDI-P’s chances, especially Gerindra and Golkar, which have been in tight competition with each other just below PDI-P. In the two Kompas surveys, Gerindra’s electability rate has hovered at 16-17 percent. Meanwhile, Golkar recorded an electability rate of 9.4 percent in the March survey, 3.2 percent higher than in the October 2018 survey.

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

The General Election Commission (KPU) validates and approves documents ahead of the 2019 elections at the KPU building, Jl. Imam Bonjol, Jakarta, Friday (4/1/2019). The ballot validation and approval was led by chairman of the KPU, Arief Budiman, and was attended by representatives of the campaign team of the presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs as well as the political parties participating in the election. The validation and approval was carried out to ensure the names and photos of election participants were correct.

Electoral threshold

Based on the electability rates in the March survey, political parties separate into three categories regarding the 4 percent legislative threshold for the 2019 election. First are the parties with electability rates above the legislative threshold. Included in this category are PDI-P (26.9 percent), Gerindra (17 percent), Golkar (9.4 percent) and the National Awakening Party/PKB (6.8 percent). Second are the parties with electability rates that meet the minimal legislative threshold, taking into account the survey’s +/- 2.2 percent margin of error. In this category are the Democratic Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and Nasdem.

Third are the parties with electability rates below the minimum legislative threshold, even with the +/- 2.2 percent margin of error. In this category are Hanura, the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), and the four new parties – the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), Berkarya and Garuda.

The accuracy of these three categories will be tested on Election Day, April 17. Less than one month remains until the polls, which still offers a chance for all parties to change their electability.

Increasing certainty

If the March survey showed no significant changes in the general electability of political parties from the previous survey, it showed differences in the "quality" of voter preferences. This was seen in two key parties of the coalitions backing opposing camps, PDI-P and Gerindra. As much as 76.5 percent of voters have made up their minds to vote for PDI-P on April 17, an increase of nearly 30 percent since October.

A similar increase in certainty was seen among Gerindra voters, of which 80.8 percent had made up their minds. In addition to the increased certainty among their voters, PDI-P and Gerindra have also benefited from the coattail effect of the presidential candidates they are backing, respectively Joko Widodo and Prabowo Subianto.

Loyal voters of PDI-P and Gerindra are also supporting the parties’ respective presidential candidates. As much as 95.0 percent of PDI-P voters intend to vote for Jokowi-Ma\'ruf in the election, while 92.4 percent of Gerindra voters intend to vote for Prabowo-Sandiaga.

This indicates that PDI-P and Gerindra will benefit the most from the 2019 election, which will hold the legislative and presidential polls simultaneously.

Those political parties that are not as fortunate as PDI-P and Gerindra have been forced to think about the actual incentives they are gaining from their presidential candidates in the legislative election. Some of these parties have decided to take the “middle way” in overcoming their situation. One such means is by allowing their legislative candidates the freedom to campaign for the presidential candidate they prefer, particularly for those candidates competing in electoral districts that have a strong voter base for the opposing presidential candidate.

Finally, political parties are making concerted efforts to convince voters and solidify their choices so that voters will not change their minds. Therefore, nurturing voter loyalty is the more effective strategy as the electoral contest grows in intensity, while political parties remain divided in their attention between the presidential and legislative elections.

(YOHAN WAHYU/Kompas R&D)