Raisi, Conspiracy, and the Middle East

The tragic death of President Iran Ebrahim Raisi as a result of the crash of the helicopter he was traveling in with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and his entourage, 19 May 2024 , clearly shook the world at a time when the Middle East situation was also still worrying.

Iran was the only country that was at the forefront of resisting Israel's massacre and clean sweep of Gaza, and even directly exchanged drones and missiles with the Jewish state. In the never-ending Israel-Hamas war, Raisi's role was so central that his death gave rise to suspicions of a conspiracy.

The death of Raisi adds to the growing list of presidents, prime ministers (PM), or leaders who have died due to a plane/helicopter accident since 1940 until 2024, which amounts to a total of 18 people.

Also read: Iran's Resilience During Grief

Among them, Philippine President Ramon Magsaysay (1957), UN Secretary General Dag Hammarskjold (1961), Lebanese President Rashid Karami (1987), Pakistani President Zia Ul-Haq (1988), Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana (1994), and Polish President Lech Kaczynsky (2010) (The Daily Star, 5/20/2024). All these accidents were also overshadowed by political conspiracies.

Conspiracy theory

Conspiracy theory is perhaps one of the most widely used references to various abnormal phenomena (read: conflict or war), apart from the theory of Balance of Power or Game Theory.

Conspiracy theories have a long history, but in the United States (US) it is claimed that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) coined the term in 1967 to disqualify those who questioned the official version of the assassination of John F Kennedy in 1962 and doubted that the killer, Lee Harvey Oswald, acted alone (The Conversation, 3/16/2020).

According to Britannica, conspiracy theories are an attempt to explain sad or tragic events as the result of the actions of a small group of powerful people. Such an explanation rejects the accepted explanation of events even though the official version may lend credence to the conspiracy.

The prevalence of conspiracy theories increases during times of anxiety, uncertainty, or difficulty, such as during wars, economic depressions, and after natural disasters, like tsunamis or pandemics.

The meaning of "conspiracy theory" can shrink and expand. This phrase is often used to describe fringe views that do not involve allegations of conspiracy.

On the other hand, the use of the phrase tends to be avoided when describing conspiracy claims held by the mainstream. Regarding acts of terrorism, gangs, or "religious" movements, the popular narrative of conspiracy theories is more marginal, the plot is non-existent or the scary picture of Pulp Fiction (cheap sensational fiction).

Conspiracy theories may not necessarily answer or shed light on an event, and that's where the uniqueness of a theory that is close to speculation lies. This fact is proven by the numerous conspiracy theories that emerged after the 9/11 (2001) and John F. Kennedy assassination events, which are compiled in thousands of volumes of books and remain mysteries until today.

What is certain is that Raisi has opened the eyes of the world community to the suffering, fate and future of the Palestinian people.

There are two versions of this conspiracy theory, namely the extreme version which claims that the CIA really created the term, where the words "conspiracy" and "theory" had never been used together before.

While the moderate version admits that the term appeared in 1870, it became popular in the 1950s. This version claims that the CIA deliberately created a negative connotation and turned it into a tool of political propaganda that is increasingly widely used, as revealed by Lance DeHaven-Smith in his book, Conspiracy Theory in America (2014).

Raisi's death conspiracy

Raisi is the first Iranian President to die in office since 1981. Meanwhile, Mohammad-Ali Rajai was killed by a bomb just a month after taking office and was replaced by Ali Khamenei.

When Raisi, who is described as ultra-conservative and very close to Ayatollah Khomeini and Khameini, replaced Hassan Rouhani, the world was anxiously awaiting his attitude in dealing with US President Donald Trump, who is close to the far right. .

The indication is that a series of negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been stymied so far because US President Joe Biden has instead continued Trump's policy of completely overhauling the agreement.

Raisi leads Iran at a very difficult time, both at home and abroad. Therefore, conspiracists (conspiracists) put forward a number of speculations. Among them, the first and most frequently expressed is the conspiracy to revive the monarchy system under Ali Reza Pahlavi, son of Shah Reza, who was removed in the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

This revolution caused the Pahlavi family and cronies to scatter to a number of countries, such as Egypt, the US and a number of Western European countries.

Thirdly, the Sunni Arab world is attempting to prevent the expansion of Shi'a influence in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Shi'a groups have already existed in several Arab countries, such as Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, even before the revolution.

Fourth, Israel has never been comfortable with Iran and still carries out former President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's threat to "wipe Israel off the map" (wipe Israel off the map) even though this threat was only made once in 2005.

The religious elites in Israel seem to want a "perpetual enemy" to maintain their power since Arab countries have not been seen as a threat since the Arab Spring.

Fifth, there is internal competition among religious leaders in Iran considering that Ayatullah Khameini is 85 years old. Raisi is known to be close to various levels of the legislative government, the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guard and the theocratic elite. He has long been predicted to replace (natural successor) Khamenei; while other groups are supporting Mojtaba Khameini (Ali Khameini's son).

The sixth point is that Israel does not like to see close relations between Azerbaijan and Iran. Azerbaijan, one of the Islamic countries in the Caspian region, has a close diplomatic relationship with Israel. About 60 percent of its main weaponry system (alutsista) is supplied by Tel Aviv (SIPRI, 2021).

In the never-ending Israel-Hamas war, Raisi's role was so central that his death gave rise to suspicions of a conspiracy.

Under President Ilham Aliyeh, Azerbaijan has established close relations with Raisi, among others, through joint projects such as the Qiz Qalasi dam on the Aras River at the border between the two countries, which was inaugurated before the helicopter crashed.

The world is now waiting for the results of the Iranian Aviation Safety Agency's investigation. However, this conspiracy theory will not disappear even if, for example, it is proven that the cause of the crash of the helicopter carrying Raisi was purely an accident. In the world of aviation, it is recognized that a loose screw or a slight crack (metal fatigue) on a plane/helicopter can have fatal consequences.

The future of Gaza and the JCPOA

Raisi's tragic death clearly leaves a number of very important pending matters for the Middle East, including the fate of the Palestinian people in Gaza and the continuation of JCPOA negotiations. According to Hamidreza Azizi and Erwin van Veen from Clingendael (5/3/2024), under Raisi, Tehran has achieved three regional security goals simultaneously.

First, maintaining prevention against potential direct US/Israel attacks. Second, increase the costs of Israel's military campaign in Gaza to the US and at the same time avoid a high-intensity regional conflict. Third, strengthen the coherence of the axis of resistance (Axis of Resistance) in the face of US and Israeli counteraction.

The involvement of Iran in the Hamas-Israel war has significant implications for Iran's already difficult economy, marked by currency devaluation, decreased government revenue, high inflation, decreased oil exports, and weakened gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Through its support for Hamas in Gaza, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Iran will experience a 5 percent contraction in GDP.

However, the large costs incurred by Iran to help Hamas turned out to have "sweet" results so that the Geopolitical Monitor (13/12/2023) stated that Iran was the one who actually benefited from the Gaza conflict (the real beneficiary of the Gaza conflict i>).

Raisi's firm stance on the Gaza issue has thwarted the acceleration of normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as a major shift in world public opinion towards Tel Aviv. In addition, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, who has conducted a series of regional tours as part of "Resistance Diplomacy", has balanced the same tours by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in the region to seek support for Israel.

The future of the JCPOA itself is still uncertain due to the lack of political will of the signatories. As a result, Raisi announced that Iran would increase its nuclear program even though it was still not interested in building a bomb (Chronicle, 20/5/2024).

President Biden has indeed attempted to revive the JCPOA even though it has been overshadowed by "delays and miscalculations".

To create new momentum in the summer of 2023, an "unwritten understanding" (unwritten understanding) has been reached that the US will unfreeze (unfreeze) 6 billion US dollars of Iranian assets and soften the amount sanctions, and in return Iran will halt the expansion of its nuclear program and reduce tensions in Iraq and Syria.

However, Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 caused this agreement to be "thrown into the trash".

Raisi once said, "It is my honor to fight against hypocrisy" (It is my honor to fight against hypocrisy), therefore conspiracies will continue to exist. What is certain is that Raisi has opened the eyes of the world community to the suffering, fate and future of the Palestinian people.

Dian WirengjuritIndonesian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (LBBP) to the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkmenistan (2012-2016)

TRIBUNNEWS.COM

Dian Wirengjurit