Prabowo Cabinet Coalition Direction

Our future will be influenced by the face of the future cabinet.

KOMPAS/HERYUNANTO

Illustration

After the Constitutional Court decided the election dispute case, public attention shifted to the formation of the cabinet. In practice, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka still have four months left to prepare the cabinet before the swearing-in of the president-vice president on October 20, 2024.

The priority agenda and organization of the new government cabinet will determine our future for the next five years. With domestic and global challenges predicted to become increasingly difficult in the future, the composition of the Prabowo cabinet will affect public trust and economic conditions moving forward.

With the main supporting parties in parliament (Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, and Democrat) only reaching 48.28 percent of the total strength, elected president Prabowo Subianto will surely be realistic.

Conditions where there is not yet a majority will make it difficult for the stability of the government in the future. The options currently available are of course inviting other parties, both in coalition 1 and 3, to join the cabinet. Prabowo has signaled to the public several times that he is open to forming coalitions and communicating with any party. Most recently, the idea of ​​a presidential club has emerged, a kind of forum with presidents and former presidents.

Also read: For the Effectiveness of Government, LAN Reminds of Signs for Forming a Cabinet

What should the ideal future cabinet formation look like, how big will the cabinet be, and what factors will affect coalition and cabinet stability?

The stability of coalitions in the presidential system, which involves multi-party and cabinet formations, has long been a topic extensively discussed by researchers in Indonesia. Some studies have concluded that the stability of a multi-party presidential coalition is influenced by political and economic concessions and accommodations (Hanan, 2014; Mietzner, 2024).

The pattern of creating cabinets has undergone changes over time. In President Joko Widodo's cabinets, both in the first and second terms, to ensure the stability of the government, coalition formation not only accommodates party officials but also non-party figures of the coalition from the military/police, bureaucrats, entrepreneurs, and others (Mietzner, 2024).

In general, although political parties have already been granted concessions in the form of ministerial seat allocations, the elected president still feels worried about the coalition's solidarity and discipline. The presidents elected since 2004 have shown a trend of needing to add party support to ensure government stability.

Post-election coalitions (post-electoral coalitions) are becoming commonplace. If we look at the period from Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) to Jokowi, the president's post-election political support was above 65 percent.

In fact, at the end of his reign, President Jokowi formed an oversized cabinet with parliamentary political support reaching 91.3 percent and leaving only one of the nine parties in the DPR not joining the cabinet.

Cabinet stability

In the case of Indonesia, cabinet stability is influenced by political and economic concessions agreed upon by coalition members, before or after the election. Political concessions in pre-election coalitions can take the form of cabinet allocations, policy concessions, or funding/program concessions (Raile et al., 2011).

Several studies, particularly in Latin America, have shown that political agreement among coalition members built before elections can determine cabinet stability (Albala, et al., 2021). Pre-election coalitions can be more stable because there is trust among coalition members and agreement on the allocation and portfolio of the cabinet.

This provides a strong incentive for parties to work together (Borges, et al, 2020).

Also read: Waiting for the Birth of the "Zaken" Cabinet

The number of political support in parliament also affects the stability of the cabinet. This has prompted the elected president to multiply political support in parliament. In the history of cabinet formation after the direct presidential election in 2004, the elected president has always sought to increase political support in parliament.

In 2004, for example, the political support of SBY's coalition party in parliament increased from 39.45 percent (pre-election coalition) to 65.09 percent (post-election coalition). The same goes for Jokowi's first term in 2009, where political support in parliament increased from 36.96 percent (pre-election coalition) to 68.93 percent (post-election coalition).

As the transition of government approaches from President Jokowi to the elected President Prabowo Subianto, the internal political dynamics within the Prabowo coalition are relatively well-maintained. Currently, the coalition is quite solid, formed due to similarities in platform and future government agendas.

Solidarity can also be formed due to agreements related to the formation and composition of the cabinet. However, political instability can also occur, for example, there may be sharp differences in ideology or policy platforms between parties in the coalition, both pre-election and post-election coalitions.

Cabinet formation

Domestic and global challenges that will only increase in difficulty demand that the elected president truly pays attention to the competence, capabilities, experience, and networks of potential cabinet members. Such considerations are important so that the formation of the cabinet is not just a mere distribution of power.

The allocation of ministerial seats to political parties should not solely be based on the strength of the party's representation in parliament. It could also take into account agreements made between parties before the elections or the electoral workload of the party in the presidential elections.

Research on coalition and cabinet formation shows that the determination of the cabinet should not only be based on the proportional distribution of seats in parliament, but also on the size and strategic roles of the ministries (Junior and Pareira, 2020), as well as political negotiations agreed between parties before the elections (Bucur, 2020; Borges, et al., 2020).

Domestic and global challenges that will become increasingly difficult demand that the elected president truly pay attention to the competence, capability, experience, and network of the potential cabinet members.

Another model for determining the cabinet can also be based on the president's influence and power (presidential power) or depending on the strategy and policies that the president will pursue while leading (Bucur, 2020).

In practice, the party of the president's origin usually receives a larger portion among other coalition members. This, for example, happened in Brazil during President Lula da Silva's term (2003-2011) as well as during President SBY's coalition in the first (2004-2009) and second (2009-2014) periods.

In the first period of SBY's administration, for example, the Democratic Party received a large allocation in the cabinet despite only getting 10 percent of seats in the parliament. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle also gained a large portion, both in the first and second terms of Jokowi's presidency (2014-2024).

Another model that could be considered is dividing cabinet portfolios based on the size of ministries. Indicators that can be used are to look at the amount of State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) funds managed by the ministry and the strategic aspects of the ministry in managing the economy and the lives of many people and how broad the ministry's coverage is.

Main supporting political parties, or parties with significant support in parliament, may have the opportunity to fill strategic ministerial positions or, in some cases, occupy ministerial positions that oversee large national budget funds.

Effective cabinet

The choice for President-elect Prabowo in the future, will he form a fat cabinet or an effective one? Building an effective cabinet formation with strong internal trust, in my opinion, is much more important than building an oversized cabinet.

With the severity of impeachment, especially after the constitutional amendments, in my opinion the president does not need to create an oversized cabinet. The president only needs to make a minimum majority in the range of 65-70 percent. Super-majority cabinet will make it difficult for the president to make quick decisions because he has to communicate with many parties.

A bloated cabinet certainly poses risks in several aspects, such as difficulties in managing internal conflicts and ensuring coalition members' discipline, as well as coordination difficulties and lengthy decision-making processes.

As an example, during the first period of SBY's presidency (2004-2009), despite being supported by 65.09 percent of the strength in the DPR, government instability still occurred, as evidenced by the high number of hak angket submissions compared to other governments. In fact, in the case of the Century hak angket, the hak angket promoter actually came from coalition members. This means that a fat coalition does not necessarily lead to coalition discipline.

Apart from an effective coalition, the elected president also needs to consider ministerial candidates from technocratic and professional groups.

In the future, to reduce the risk of coalition members breaking up, the president-elect could consider a slim and effective cabinet, with not too much support, but enough to secure policies in parliament. A slim coalition can provide fair allocations for pre-election coalition members compared to a fat coalition.

If the current support for Prabowo's coalition members is 48 percent, Prabowo only needs to complete support in the range of 65-70 percent. With that support, the elected president will easily manage the coalition's internal affairs and make measured policies.

In addition to an effective coalition, the elected president also needs to consider ministerial candidates from technocratic and professional groups. In several recent cabinets, strategic ministries that manage large amounts of public funds were generally filled by non-partisan technocrats or professional groups, such as the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Health, Ministry of SOEs, and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

Our future will be affected by the complexion of the future cabinet, whether the elected president will form an effective or bloated cabinet.

ARSIP CSIS

Arya Fernandes

Arya Fernandes, Chair of the CSIS Department of Politics and Social Change