Four names are the most popular ahead of the Surabaya regional elections, including Eri and Dhani

Ahead of the Surabaya regional elections, there were four popular figures, namely Eri Cahyadi, Armuji, Ahmad Dhani, and Fuad Bernardi.

AMBROSIUS HARTO MANUMOYOSO

The atmosphere of the presentation of the Political Survey and Community Aspiration Network for the City of Surabaya by the WE Institute in Surabaya, East Java, Monday (6/5/2024).

SURABAYA, KOMPAS — Ahead of this year's regional head elections, a number of names are predicted to run as candidates for mayor of Surabaya, East Java . Based on the results of a survey by the WE Institute, there are four names that are currently most popular regarding the Surabaya Pilkada, namely Eri Cahyadi, Armuji, Ahmad Dhani, and Fuad Bernardi.

Eri Cahyadi is the current Mayor of Surabaya, Armuji is the Deputy Mayor of Surabaya, while Ahmad Dhani is a musician and also a member of the elected DPR from the Jatim I constituency. Meanwhile, Fuad is a member of the elected DPRD Jatim from the Surabaya electoral district and the son of the Minister of Social Affairs, Tri Rismaharini.

The four names became popular based on the Political Survey and Community Aspiration Network in Surabaya conducted by WE Institute. The survey results were announced in Surabaya on Monday (5/6/2024).

In the survey, there were 1,000 residents as respondents taken proportionally from 100 neighborhoods in 31 districts in Surabaya. The survey was conducted from April 17th to 27th, 2024.

Also read: Challengers to Mayor of Surabaya Begin to Appear

AMBROSIUS HARTO MANUMOYOSO

The atmosphere of the presentation of the Political Survey and Community Aspiration Network for the City of Surabaya by the WE Institute in Surabaya, East Java, Monday (6/5/2024).

"Sampling uses the multistage random sampling method with an error tolerance of 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level," said Director of the WE Institute, Sugeng Siswanto, who is also Chair of the Statistics Alumni Association (Ikasta) of the Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology (ITS). ).

Sugeng explained that when respondents were asked spontaneously or without being assisted with the names of candidates, Eri had the highest popularity at 36 percent. In second place was Armuji with 4.1 percent, followed by Fuad Bernardi with 1.3 percent, and Dhani with 0.1 percent.

Also read: Ahmad Dhani has the opportunity to fight incumbent Eri Cahyadi in the Surabaya regional elections

Meanwhile, if asked about popular figures with the mention of names, Eri is known by 99 percent of respondents, Armuji is known by 94 percent of respondents, Dhani is known by 90 percent of respondents, and Fuad is known by 46 percent of respondents. On the other hand, the dislike towards Eri reaches 9 percent, Armuji 8.5 percent, Dhani 46 percent, and Fuad 10 percent.

Eri, Armuji, and Fuad are cadres of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Dhani is a cadre of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra). Eri-Armuji have registered with the PDI-P, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the Democratic Party to form a large coalition in the Surabaya regional elections.

KOMPAS/AMBROSIUS HARTO MANUMOYOSO

A large poster of Surabaya Mayor Eri Cahyadi was displayed at the intersection of Jalan Marah and Jalan Marah Agung in Surabaya, East Java, on Monday (29/4/2024). Eri Cahyadi is currently the most popular candidate for re-election as a regional head.

According to Sugeng, if Gerindra assigns Dhani to join the election contest, there is a possibility that two factions will be formed during the Surabaya regional election. However, Gerindra must form a coalition as the party only has 8 seats out of 50 in the Surabaya City Council.

Additional 2 seats that are needed can be obtained from PKB, Golkar Party, Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), or Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) which each obtained 5 seats, Democratic Party, PAN, and United Development Party (PPP) which each obtained 3 seats, or Nasdem Party with 2 seats.

Also read: Eri Cahyadi-Armuji has the opportunity to advance again from PDI-P Surabaya

Meanwhile, with 11 seats won, PDI-P can form its own axis. Another axis can be formed if PDI-P does not want Eri to run again, but instead pairs Armuji-Fuad. If this happens, there is a chance for a new axis made up of parties other than PDI-P and the Gerindra coalition.

WE Institute's lead researcher, Aprilia Susanti, added that other notable names in the survey include DPR members and Chairperson of the Democratic Party of Surabaya, Lucy Kurniasari (39 percent), former Chief of East Java Police, Machfud Arifin (37 percent), CEO of PT DBL Indonesia and President of Persebaya Surabaya, Azrul Ananda (34 percent), and young entrepreneur and elected DPR member from PAN, Tom Liwafa (33 percent).

AMBROSIUS HARTO MANUMOYOSO

The atmosphere during the presentation of the Political Survey and Public Aspirations Network in Surabaya by WE Institute in Surabaya, East Java, on Monday (5/6/2024). According to the survey, a number of prominent names are expected to compete in the 2024 Surabaya Regional Election, especially incumbent pair Eri Cahyadi and Armuji.

In addition, there is the name of lawyer M Sholeh (26 percent) who is also a candidate for the Indonesian Parliament from the Nasdem party, Vice Chairman of the Surabaya Regional House of Representatives and elected member of the Indonesian Parliament Reni Astuti (23 percent) from the forbidden party, as well as former Chairman of the Surabaya Regional House of Representatives and Chairman of the Surabaya chapter of the PPP Musyafak Rouf (15 percent).

There is also the Chairman of Surabaya City Council and the Chairman of PDI-P Surabaya, Adi Sutarwijono (14 percent), Dyah Katerina from PDI-P (13 percent), Chairman of Gerindra Surabaya and elected member of East Java Provincial Council Cahyo Harjo Prakoso (12 percent), as well as elected DPR member from Gerindra Bambang Haryo Soekartono (11 percent), who is also the father of Cahyo Harjo Prakoso.

If Gerindra assigns Dhani to enter the contest, it is possible that two axes will be formed in the Surabaya Regional Election.

Political science lecturer at Airlangga University, Hari Fitrianto, said that the emergence of names other than Eri and Armuji indicates a breath of fresh air for democracy in the capital city of East Java. "Like the 2005 and 2010 local elections, there is a possibility that the upcoming contest will be followed by more than two pairs of candidates," he said.

In the 2005 Surabaya local elections, there were four pairs of candidates competing. Bambang Dwi Hartono-Arif Affandi from PDI-P won against Alisjahbana-Wahyudin Husein, Erlangga Satriagung-AH Thony, and Gatot Sujito-Benyamin Hilly.

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA (BAH)

Residents pass by a banner urging them to refuse gifts in the Surabaya City Regional Elections on Police Commissioner M Duriyat Street, Surabaya, East Java, Monday (7/12/2020).

During the 2010 Surabaya local elections, there were five pairs competing. Risma-Bambang from PDI-P won against Sutadi-Mazlan Mansur, Fandi Utomo-Yulius Bustami, Arif Afandi-Adies Kadir, and Fitradjaja Purnama-Naen Soeryono (independent).

A certain political party won again in the Surabaya regional election of 2015 through the pair of Tri Rismaharini-Whisnu Sakti Buana who surpassed Lucy Kurniasari-Rasiyo. The same political party remained dominant when they won the 2020 contest through Eri-Armuji who defeated Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman Sukirno.

Hari says that based on the history of the contestation since 2005 and the number of seats in Surabaya's parliament, PDI-P is indeed dominant in the city. However, for the progress of democracy, dominance needs to be balanced with the strength of counter-control.

"The emergence of new names as challengers is a natural thing rather than a one-pair contest against an empty box," he said.