Get Ready for Record Heat in 2024

The extreme heat hitting Asia is predicted to continue and reach a record high in May 2024.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

The cloudy sky in the Manggarai area of Jakarta is seen before a heavy rain on Wednesday (17/4/2024). The extreme shift of weather from scorching heat to rain still frequently occurs in the Jabodetabek area. This extreme weather transition condition needs to be anticipated by the community, both in terms of disaster and health.

Extremely hot temperatures and high humidity have baked several countries in Asia, causing the closure of thousands of schools and increasing the risk of death. The rising temperature trend that has occurred since the last year is a combination of the impact of El Nino and global warming which is predicted to reach a record high globally in 2024.

Exposure to hot temperatures is more felt in our neighboring country. On Sunday (28/4/2024), the Philippines announced the suspension of face-to-face classes in all public schools for two days after a record-breaking hot day. The Philippine Meteorology Agency warned that the heat index had reached 45 degrees Celsius, categorized as "dangerous", and potentially causing heat-related illnesses such as heatstroke.

In Thailand, temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius have occurred in Bangkok and other central and northern regions, prompting urgent warnings for people to limit outdoor activities. According to a report from the Thai Ministry of Health, last month saw 30 deaths due to heatstroke.

Also read: Extreme Rain Hits Africa, Asia is Roasting Hot

In Vietnam, residents seek refuge in air-conditioned shopping centers amidst the scorching heat. The local national weather agency warns of the risks of forest fires, dehydration, and heat-related illnesses. The maximum temperature in northern and central Vietnam is reported to have reached 44 degrees Celsius.

The Malaysian Meteorology Department has issued a heat warning for 16 regions with temperatures ranging from 35-40 degrees Celsius for three consecutive days. Meanwhile, the Singapore Meteorology Service predicts that the temperature will be higher in 2024 compared to the previous year, which was the fourth hottest temperature record in the country since 1929. The hottest recorded day in Singapore was on May 13, 2023, when the temperature peaked at 37 degrees Celsius.

AFP/EARVIN PERIAS

A man douses his body with water during extreme hot weather in Manila, Philippines, Sunday (28/4/2024)

The exposure to high temperatures also affects Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh, with maximum daily temperatures reaching up to 45 degrees celsius. Bangladesh is among those hit the hardest by the heat.

The issue of air pollution is not new. The community has long been threatened by air pollution. There is no shortage of research evidence indicating the threat of the impacts of air pollution. However, it has not yet led to significant efforts in controlling air pollution. Consequently, residents now suffer even more in the midst of air pollution. In late April, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department extended its warning that the current heat wave may continue. This has led to the closure of all primary and secondary schools for the following week after the nationwide closure the previous week. A Save the Children report from Dhaka stated that the heat wave has caused around 33 million children in Bangladesh to miss school because the temperature has soared past 42 degrees Celsius.

Warming trends in Indonesia

Even though not as hot as neighboring countries, temperatures in Indonesia this year have also significantly risen compared to the annual average. Head of the Public Meteorology Center of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Andri Ramdhani, stated that the highest maximum air temperature in the last week was recorded at the Deli Serdang Geophysics Station in North Sumatra, measuring 37.3 degrees Celsius on April 28, 2024.

The Asian continent is warming faster than the global average.

The previous week, the maximum air temperature in Indonesia exceeded 36.5 degrees Celsius, which was also recorded in several areas. On April 21 in Medan, North Sumatra, the maximum temperature was recorded at 37 degrees Celsius, while in Saumlaki, Maluku, it reached a maximum temperature of 37.8 degrees Celsius. On April 23 in Palu, Central Sulawesi, the temperature reached 36.8 degrees Celsius.

BMKG

The highest maximum air temperature in the past week was recorded at the Deli Serdang Geophysical Station, North Sumatra, reaching 37.3 degrees Celsius on April 28, 2024.

BMKG also noted the occurrence of warmer temperature anomalies throughout March 2024. Based on analysis from 115 observation stations, the average air temperature in Indonesia in March 2024 was 27.43 degrees Celsius. However, the normal climatological air temperature for March during the period of 1991-2020 was 26.63 degrees Celsius.

Based on the data, the average air temperature anomaly in March 2024 showed an increase of 0.8 degrees Celsius from the average. This air temperature anomaly in Indonesia in March 2024 is the second highest during the observation period since 1981.

According to BMKG data, the highest anomaly was recorded at the Gusti Syamsir Alam Meteorology Station in Kotabaru Regency, South Kalimantan. The temperature increase was recorded to be 2.1 degrees Celsius higher than its climatological average.

BMKG

Based on the analysis of 115 observation stations, the average air temperature in Indonesia in March 2024 is 27.43 degrees Celsius. The anomaly of the average air temperature in March 2024 indicates a 0.8 degree Celsius increase from the average.

Asia is heating up faster

The heat disaster that is scorching parts of Asia reinforces the report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) this week, which warns that Asia is the "most vulnerable region in the world to disaster due to weather, climate, and water-related hazards by 2023."

The report "State of the Climate in Asia 2023" highlights the acceleration of key indicators of climate change, such as surface temperature, glacier shrinkage, and sea level rise that will have significant impacts on the community, economy, and ecosystem in this region.

According to this WMO report, the continent of Asia is experiencing faster warming compared to the global average. The warming trend has increased almost twofold since the period of 1961-1990.

WMO

The continent of Asia experiences faster warming compared to the global average. The warming trend has increased almost twice as much since the period of 1961-1990.

The average annual near-surface temperature in Asia in 2023 reached its second-highest record, 0.91 degrees Celsius above the average from 1991-2020 and 1.87 degrees Celsius above the average from 1961-1990. The exceptionally high average temperature was recorded from western Siberia to central Asia and from eastern China to Japan.

"The conclusion of this report is truly saddening. Many countries in this region (Asia) experienced record high temperatures in 2023, accompanied by a series of extreme conditions, ranging from droughts and heat waves to floods and storms," said the Secretary-General of WMO, Celeste Saulo.

Last year, a severe heat wave in India in April and June resulted in around 110 reported deaths due to heat stroke. "Extended and massive heat waves affected most of Southeast Asia in April and May 2023, spreading west to Bangladesh and East India, and north to southern China, with record-breaking temperatures," wrote the WMO.

See also: Extreme Rain, 169 People Killed in Kenya in the Last Month

The situation in 2024 is expected to be even worse. New statistical analysis on the interaction between El Nino and global temperature rise due to climate change concludes that the temperature and humidity in tropical regions in 2024 are predicted to break the highest records.

The predictions, made by climate scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, apply to most of the equatorial region of the world, including India and much of Africa, Central and South America and Australia, as far away as Florida and Texas. The analysis was published in Geophysical Research Letters on April 5, 2024.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Pedestrians use their umbrellas when crossing the sidewalk of Jalan MH Thamrin, Jakarta, during heavy rain, Sunday (31/3/2024).

The researchers concluded that a strong to very strong El Nino is expected to occur at the end of 2023, with a rating of 2.0 on the Oceanic Nino Index, indicating that the maximum wet bulb temperature on tropical land in 2024 will reach 26.2 degrees Celsius, with a 68 percent chance of breaking existing records.

This analysis is based on the current understanding of scientists regarding the impacts of El Nino on tropical heat and humidity, particularly how the atmosphere's temperature several kilometers above the ground controls the heat and humidity on the ground's surface. This upper-level temperature reaches its hottest point around five months after the peak of El Nino, which occurred in December 2023.

Based on this study, the temperature anomaly that occurred throughout April 2024 is very likely to continue in May 2024. The earth's temperature this month is predicted to continue breaking records for the hottest trend, which has been going on since mid-2023.