Parliamentary Support Determines the Fate of Democracy

The political stance of a number of political parties regarding their support for the next government will greatly determine the course of democracy.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

The elected president and vice president in the 2024 Presidential Election, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, attended the Nahdlatul Ulama 2024 Halalbihalal at the PBNU Headquarters in Jakarta on Sunday (28/4/2024).

Governments formed from a democratic process, especially since the Reformation era, have always been unable to escape the need for majority support in parliament. It is not surprising that the coalition formed in elections is not always directly proportional to the coalition in government.

This symptom is likely to be continued by the pair Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka who have been appointed as president and vice president-elect as a result of the 2024 Election by the KPU on April 24 2024.

It is not surprising that the president-elect has communicated with the general chairman of a political party who was not his supporter in the election. Among these were Prabowo's meeting with the General Chair of the Nasdem Party, Surya Paloh and the General Chair of the National Awakening Party, Muhaimin Iskandar. These two meetings gave a signal that the new government in the future still needs more parliamentary support from the political parties that support it in the presidential election.

The Prabowo-Gibran coalition supporters have prepared ministerial seats for political parties who join after the 2024 Presidential Election, including Nasdem and PKB.

Also read: PKS Political Position Has Not Been Decided, Salim Segaf Emphasizes Togetherness

This was further strengthened by Surya Paloh's statement which was delivered after the meeting with Prabowo. The General Chair of the Nasdem Party stated that his party would join the ranks of Prabowo-Gibran supporters by creating a coalition of political parties supporting the new government to control more than half of the seats in the DPR for the 2024-2029 period (Kompas, 26/ 4/2024).

Next, Prabowo also met with the Chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB), Muhaimin Iskandar, on April 28th. In this meeting, Muhaimin stated that PKB has entrusted eight change agendas to the Prabowo-Gibran pair.

The meeting clearly signals that Prabowo-Gibran is attempting to open the door for the inclusion of Nasdem and PKB, political parties supporting the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar presidential and vice-presidential candidates, in its government for the next five years. Not only that, the Prabowo-Gibran supporting coalition has also prepared ministerial positions for the political parties that join them after the 2024 Presidential Election, including Nasdem and PKB.

If the scenario of Nasdem and PKB joining forces, it will further strengthen the thesis which has stated that coalitions in presidential election contestations are always not directly proportional to coalitions in government. This can be seen when referring to the simulation results R&D Kompas regarding the potential for political parties to gain seats in the DPR from the results of the 2024 elections.

From the simulation results, the first scenario can refer to the coalition design in the presidential election, where the pair of Prabowo-Gibran will only control 280 seats or equivalent to 48.3 percent. This number of seats is an accumulation of seats won by four political parties that support Prabowo-Gibran who passed the parliamentary threshold, namely the Golkar Party (102 seats), Gerindra (86 seats), the National Mandate Party (48 seats), and the Democratic Party (44 seats).

If this first scenario happens, political parties that control seats outside the Prabowo-Gibran coalition in the presidential election will hold more seats in the DPR. They are PDI-P with 110 seats, Nasdem (69 seats), PKB (68 seats), and PPP (53 seats). The total number of seats in the DPR from these four parties reaches 300 seats, equivalent to 51.7 percent of all DPR seats.

Also read: Considering Various Inputs, PDI-P Holds National Working Meeting to Formulate Political Direction

Scenario without PDI-P

Of course, if following this scenario, Prabowo-Gibran have not yet gained a majority of the national parliament. Therefore, efforts to establish communication with Nasdem and PKB need to be woven more quickly after the announcement of the elected presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

If Nasdem and PKB join forces, the strength of the Prabowo-Gibran government will increase to 417 seats or equivalent to 71.9 percent of the total seats in the DPR (parliament). The remaining seats will be outside the government, leaving PDI-P and Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) with 163 seats or equivalent to 28.1 percent. This is the second scenario if the government operates without involving PDI-P and PKS.

Referring to past election experiences, the government is usually supported by 70-80 percent of parliamentary power. This scenario has a greater chance of happening with several considerations, including "sufficiency". With a total of 71.9 percent of the coalition that supports the government in parliament, it will be relatively more stable as they have the majority of seats in the DPR. This means that government policies will be more guaranteed to receive support in parliament.

KOMPAS/FAKHRI FADLURROHMAN

The chairman of the Golkar Party Airlangga Hartarto (front, second from left) held a press conference together with the chairman of the Gelora Party Anis Matta (left), the chairman of the Gerindra Party and presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto (third from left), the chairman of the PAN Zulkifli Hasan (fourth from left), and the chairman of the Crescent Star Party Yusril Ihza Mahendra (fifth from left) at the Golkar Party DPP office, Jakarta, on Thursday (14/9/2023).

Another consideration is the matter of "appropriateness". This means that by leaving the power of political parties outside the government, namely PDI-P and PKS with a total of 28.1 percent of the seats, the Prabowo-Gibran government still opens up space for balancing forces to maintain a democratic climate with the function of checks and balances. .

Finally, the third scenario is the same condition as the second scenario, but with the addition of one political party, either PDI-P or PKS. This is not separated from the discourse that is growing that these two parties have the opportunity to communicate with the elected president, Prabowo.

On one occasion, there was a discussion regarding the plan for a meeting between Prabowo and the Chairperson of PDI-P, Megawati Soekarnoputri. This also includes PKS which is attempting to arrange a meeting with Prabowo. To what extent these two parties can join the Prabowo-Gibran government, remains dependent on the political psychology of both parties.

For PDI-P, the relationship with President Joko Widodo which has become increasingly cold following the political configuration changes during the presidential election, will bring a political burden when the door to join the Prabowo-Gibran government is opened.

Also read: PDI-P Not Abandoned, Gibran: Joining the Government is the Party's Decision

Political burden

The political psychology referred to here is the potential political burden carried by PDI-P and PKS. For PDI-P, their relationship with President Joko Widodo, which has become somewhat chilly following the political configuration change during the presidential election, will bring political burden when the door is open to joining the Prabowo-Gibran government.

The same thing will be faced by PKS. The existence of the Gelora Party, which is a part of the Prabowo-Gibran supporters, certainly brings a political burden of its own for PKS because the history of Gelora's birth is inseparable from the history of internal "conflicts" in PKS as many PKS figures exodused to the Gelora Party.

However, regardless of the political burden, it doesn't mean that this third scenario is closed to opportunities even though the path is still not easy. The relationship between PDI-P and Jokowi is indeed cold. However, this party's relationship with Prabowo is relatively problem-free. Moreover, history records that Megawati and Prabowo were once presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the 2009 election.

ARSIP PDI-P

The Secretary General of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Hasto Kristiyanto, gave direction during a coordination meeting held by the Majalengka Branch Executive Board in West Java on Saturday (27/4/2024).

The efforts of PDI-P, which will determine its political stance at the national working meeting forum in May 2024, will certainly provide certainty as to the direction of the party for the next five years. The same applies to PKS.

If the third scenario happens, namely one of them, either PDI-P or PKS, joins the government, the opposition's power will decrease and weaken even more. The weakening of opposition power in parliament linearly weakens democracy itself.