Israel's air power contest with Iran, who is superior?

With its long-range weapons, Iran's military power cannot be underestimated by the Israeli military.

AP PHOTO/TSAFRIR ABAYOV

Aircraft F-35 belonging to the Israeli Air Force performed aerobatics in the air during the inauguration of new fighter pilots at Hatzerim Military Airbase in Beersheba, Israel, on Thursday (June 29, 2023). The Israeli Air Force has purchased 25 new F-35 fighter jets from the United States.

Iran's missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli territory on Saturday (13/4/2024) marked a new chapter in the superpower conflict in the Middle East region. This attack raised geopolitical tensions and risked pushing open war between countries. If this really happened, what would the image of Israel's military strength look like vis-à-vis Iran's military?

The two countries currently in tension generally have similar experiences in fighting. Iran or Israel in the past have gone through wars with neighboring countries. During the reign of Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran's first supreme leader after the revolution, Iran once confronted Iraq under the command of Saddam Hussein. Border disputes became the trigger for the conflict.

The confrontation between Iran and Iraq lasted for eight years, starting from September 22, 1980, and ended with a ceasefire in 1988. The conflict continued for a relatively long period of time because the fighting was carried out statically, using trenches, artillery bombardment, toxic gas attacks, and simultaneous attacks with large numbers of soldiers. The methods of warfare used by Iran and Iraq were similar to the strategies used during World War I, and can be considered conventional if viewed in the context of the 1980s.

Meanwhile, there are two significant experiences of Israel's conflict with neighboring countries, namely the Six-Day War (June 5-10, 1967) and the Yom Kippur War (October 6-25, 1973). The Six-Day War occurred when Israel launched a sudden and massive air attack targeting the Egyptian Air Force base known as Operation Focus. At the same time, Israel invaded the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula. In this war, Israel faced Egypt, Jordan, and Syria.

The Six Day War was won by Israel, which succeeded in seizing the Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights. After the war, the territory of Israel increased to approximately three times its previous size.

Six years later, the Yom Kippur War broke out, coinciding with the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. The attack was launched by Egypt and Syria, with the main mission of reclaiming the territory that Israel had captured during the Six-Day War.

The end result of the Yom Kippur War was won by Israel who successfully pushed back their enemy but had to relinquish the Sinai Peninsula back to Egypt.

Also read: Ayatollah Khamenei: Iran Shows Its Strength Against Israel

AFP/GABRIEL DUVAL

The Israeli forces positioned themselves with anti-aircraft weapons in the Golan Heights, Syria during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War on October 12, 1973. On October 6, 1973, during the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, a coalition of Arab military led by Egypt and Syria launched a simultaneous surprise attack on the Sinai Peninsula and Golan Heights, areas occupied by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

Drawing lessons from history, the determinants of the final outcome of military campaigns are supported by many factors. In the current modern military context, the element of surprise remains one of the important ones. Finding the enemy's weakest point, then attacking suddenly or without detection.

Then, modern warfare also relies on coordination between the air force, ground troops, and navy as a unified force. Looking at the history of armed conflicts in the Middle East, air power plays an important role in launching surprise attacks. These attacks are aimed to weaken the enemy's defense while simultaneously gaining dominance in the enemy's airspace.

So, how do you see the position of Iran and Israel when you compare their two currently available military strengths?

Air force power

Air power is often the spearhead when carrying out military aggression, at minimum for an opening strike and causing an extraordinary shock effect. Airplanes can quickly penetrate enemy airspace and attack targets. This was demonstrated by Israel's attack on the Egyptian airbase during the Six Day War.

Referring to military strength data compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), at the end of 2022, Israel has 315 operational fighter jets, while Iran has 289 fighter jets. In terms of quantity, Israel appears to be superior. Not only in terms of quantity, but Iran's defense equipment is also lagging behind in terms of quality.

For the record, reported by Reuters, at the end of 2023 Iran announced its agreement with Russia to purchase Su-35 jets which are 4 plus generation fighter aircraft. This aircraft is predicted to be able to compete with the United States' most sophisticated fighter bird, namely the F-35. Currently the only Middle Eastern country that operates the F-35 in its arsenal is Israel.

However, until now it is not clear whether the Su-35s ordered by Iran have been delivered by Russia, or whether they are even operating under the Iranian flag. The latest news from The Washington Post (15/4/2024) shows that there is no clarity regarding the whereabouts of the Su-35 ordered by Iran. Therefore, comparisons of Iranian and Israeli air forces still do not include the Su-35 as a key factor.

Without the presence of Su-35, the Iranian air force on paper is inferior in quality compared to Israel. Iran's fighter jets so far only consist of two generations. The first generation was obtained from the United States during the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty, then in the post-revolution era were filled by aircraft from Russia and China.

The Iranian aircraft, which were manufactured in the United States and still in service, include the F-14A Tomcat, F-5E Tiger, and various variants of the F-4 Skyhawk. These aircraft are struggling to stay operational as Iran is under an arms embargo sanction and cannot obtain spare parts for US-made aircraft, except through the black market.

Also read: US and G7 Impose More Sanctions on Iran

AFP/ATTA KENARE

On Wednesday, April 17th, 2024, the Air Force Commander of Iran, Hamid Vahedi, warned Iran's enemies not to make mistakes in responding to Iran's attack on Israel. Vahedi emphasized that the Iranian Air Force was 100% prepared in all aspects.

The generation of Russian aircraft released is relatively old, including the Sukhoi Su-24 and Mikoyan MiG-29 which both began serving in the Iranian Air Force since 1990. These aircraft are of the same generation as the 17 Chengdu F-7 aircraft from China that are still active to this day.

On the Israeli side, their fighter jets are fully supported by the US. Israel's oldest fleet consists of 58 active F-15s ranging from variants A to D. These aircraft have been in service since 1976 and have undergone upgrades to enhance their combat capabilities.

Then, in the 1980s, the Israeli air force was supported by F-16s of various types. The most recent variant of the F-16 operated by Israel, namely Type I, is nicknamed "Sufa". The aircraft is an upgrade of the F-16D which was carried out independently by Israel, which means that a number of its components were made independently within the country.

The latest and most advanced aircraft fleet of Israel is the Lockheed F-35I, which has been equipped with stealth capabilities and can eliminate several targets simultaneously, both in the air and on the surface.

Israel versus Iran

If faced on the battlefield, Israel's F-35I is only closely matched by the Su-35. Even then, the Su-35, a fourth-generation plus jet, would have to struggle hard to match the technological capabilities of the F-35. However, there is still uncertainty over whether Iran's ordered Su-35 fighter jets have been deployed to Iranian airbases.

Therefore, Israel's F-35 is unmatched in the air if both countries engage in an open war. The F-35I is a fifth-generation aircraft with stealth capability that makes it difficult for opponents to detect and has a wide range of attack capabilities. The F-35I can track and attack non-stealth targets up to a range of 200 kilometers.

The description depicts the superiority of the Israeli air force on paper when fighting against Iran. Depending on relatively aged Iranian fighter jets, such as the F-14A Tomcat, F-5E Tiger, F-4 Skyhawk, Sukhoi Su-24, Mikoyan MiG-29, and Chengdu F-7, Iran must struggle extra hard to face the combat capabilities of Israel's aircraft. With Israel's fighter squadrons also reinforced by the latest F-16 fleet, the air battle will be particularly burdensome for Iran.

Also read: When Iranian "Drones" and Missiles Attack Israel...

AP PHOTO/VAHID SALEMI

A military exhibition was held by the Iranian Government to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Islamic Revolution, which overthrew the US-backed shah, at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran, on Sunday (2/3/2019). Since 1992, Iran has developed its own military weapons, producing everything from mortars to missiles.

This illustration shows that the current condition of Iran's air defense equipment can be said to be relatively weak when faced with Israel. However, the chance of this air battle occurring is relatively small because the borders of Israel and Iran are blocked by several countries so that a direct dog fight will be difficult to occur. Unless it has received approval from countries around Israel-Iran, such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The greatest possibility of combat is using airborne weapons, such as rockets or missiles launched via multiple launch rocket projector (MLRS) combat vehicles. Apart from that, they also use drones equipped with destructive missiles. Currently, production of long-range missiles and also drone is being increased in Iran. This can be seen from the military parade held by Iran on April 18 2024, several days after Iran's attack on Israeli territory.

With these airborne weapons, Iran can no longer be underestimated by Israel. This long-range defense equipment capability increases Iran's level of deterrence effect to be very significant. Moreover, Iran is known as one of the countries capable of enriching uranium to convert it into very deadly nuclear weapons.

Therefore, Iran as a whole cannot be considered a small opponent by Israel. In fact, the world also assesses Iran's overall combat readiness to be higher than Israel's. This is evident from the Global Firepower data, which places Iran at 14th in the world, three levels above Israel, which ranks 17th in the world.

For the current feud, it is Israel that should be worried if it has to launch an open war against Iran. (R&D COMPAS)