Two Waves of Return to Eid 2024

It is estimated that there will still be many travelers who will return overseas until a week after Eid 2024.

KOMPAS/ALBERTUS KRISNA

The current condition of the Cikatama Toll Gate towards Jakarta on Monday (15/04/2024). There has been a buildup of vehicles since daylight. The government predicts that this Monday will be the peak of the Lebaran 2024 homecoming traffic.

In accordance with the Ministry of Transportation's predictions, the peak of the return flow will begin to be seen from April 13 2024. However, it is estimated that many travelers will still return to their overseas countries until a week after Eid al-Fitr 2024. This estimate needs to be anticipated because it will most likely lead to a peak in the second wave of backflow.

The government finally decided to implement a combined work pattern of Work From Office (WFO) and Work From Home (WFH) for ASN on Tuesday (16/4/2024) and Wednesday (17 /4/2024). The WFH work pattern is intended for agencies with government administration and leadership support services of a maximum of 50 percent of the number of employees. This policy was implemented to break up the density of the return flow for Eid 2024 which began to crowd the streets after Eid.

The reason is, until H+2 of Eid 2024, namely last Saturday, the mobility of travelers has increased again. Data from the Ministry of Transportation's Siasati page shows that after Eid H+2, 1.98 million Eid transport passengers had departed with the highest number reaching 1.1 million passengers. This data represents passenger movements from five modes of transportation, namely buses, ferry transportation, ships, planes and trains.

The website does not provide any differentiation between passengers who are going home for the annual exodus or those returning from their hometowns to their places of work and residence. Nevertheless, people's mobility using holiday transport increases again after the Idul Fitri holiday subsides. It was noted that on the first day of Lebaran 2024, there were 643,000 passengers traveling, and on the second day of Lebaran, the number increased to 811,000 passengers.

Also read: Backflow, Hundreds of Thousands of Vehicles Have Not Returned Via Pantura Cirebon

The increasing number of passengers is in line with the start of the post-Eid al-Fitr exodus in 2024. Looking at the trend during the two days after the holiday, there are still many travelers who have not returned from their vacations. Compared to the homecoming flow, the number of passenger movements during the return flow is only 36 percent of the number of passengers during the homecoming flow. This comparison is based on the assumption that the number of passengers during the homecoming flow is not much different from the number of passengers during the return flow as it occurred in previous years.

Based on the experiences during Eid in 2019 and 2023, where this holiday occurred before and after Covid-19, the number of passengers during the H+1 to H+2 return period was only about 28 percent of the total number of passengers during the return period. After that, the number of travelers increased significantly to return to their hometowns. This is likely to also occur during this year's Eid holiday. For the next few days, various modes of transportation and roads will still be crowded with homecomings and travelers during Eid 2024.

Two peak waves of Eid 2024 return flow

Based on the passenger data for the 2019 and 2023 Eid holiday transportation, the peak of the return flow does indeed occur starting from H+2 of Eid. However, it is not impossible for there to be an increase in passengers after H+2, as was the case in the 2023 return flow.

Last year, the peak of the homecoming season occurred on H+2 with the number of passengers reaching 1.1 million people. However, on H+6, the number of passengers using transportation during Lebaran surged again to 1.02 million people. On H+7, it increased again to 1.1 million people. This is in line with the prediction of the Ministry of Transportation stating that H+6 will be the second peak of the homecoming season during Lebaran in 2023.

Also read: At the peak of the reverse flow, residents are advised to postpone their return home to avoid traffic jams

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

The heavy traffic flow returns on the Cikampek Toll Road at Km 59 in Karawang Regency, West Java, on Sunday (14/4/2024) at 11:30 AM. It is predicted that around 1.87 million vehicles will be returning to Jabodetabek during the period of 10-18 April 2024. Jasa Marga is applying a 20% toll discount for all types of vehicles on the return flow passing through the Trans-Java Toll Road from Semarang to Jakarta. Starting from Saturday (13/4/2024) at 3:00 PM, a one-way traffic system is put in place from Kalikangkung or Kilometer (Km) 414 Toll Gate towards the west to the main Cikampek Toll Gate at Km 72. KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO (AGS)

It is highly likely that a similar situation will occur this year. There are two peaks of the homecoming traffic within a period of one week after Eid al-Fitr. According to the Eid al-Fitr Transportation Movement Potential Survey 2024 conducted by the Ministry of Transportation, the first peak of homecoming traffic occurs on the third day after Eid al-Fitr with an estimated 21.16 percent of travelers. Then, the second peak of homecoming traffic occurs starting from the seventh day after Eid al-Fitr with an estimated 10.68 percent of travelers.

The first wave of post-holiday traffic has already been seen on several Trans Java toll roads. On Sunday (14/04/2024), there was congestion on the Solo-Semarang toll road. The obstruction of vehicle movement on this toll road was caused by a buildup of vehicles on the road. This was also evident on the toll road towards Jakarta, which was observed to be crowded at the Cikatama Toll Gate.

Data from the Siasati Ministry of Transportation website shows that the number of vehicles entering Jakarta via toll roads has drastically increased since H+1 of Eid al-Fitr. One day after Eid al-Fitr, the number of incoming vehicles reached 141.8 thousand units. This number continued to increase until H+3, reaching 174.4 thousand units.

Travel time considerations

It should be noted that the direction of the return flow after Eid al-Fitr is dominated by the movement of vehicles and travelers towards Jabodetabek. This is because the majority of homecoming travelers, or 14.68 percent of travelers during Eid al-Fitr 2024, come from the Jakarta area and its surroundings. This means that around 28.43 million travelers are estimated to return to the region during the return flow of Eid al-Fitr. Toll roads, land routes, trains, ships, and flights will be jam-packed with travelers heading towards Jabodetabek.

Also read: Reverse Flow of Sea Transport Begins to Arrive in Jakarta

KOMPAS/ADRYAN YOGA PARAMADWYA

The queue of vehicles waiting to board the ferry at Bakauheni Port in Lampung on Sunday (4/14/2024). The peak of the Lebaran holiday traffic heading back home is predicted to occur on Sunday, April 14th, 2024 at Bakauheni Port. During the three days before, from April 11th to 13th, 2024, as many as 226,169 people have crossed from Bakauheni Port in Lampung to Merak Port in Banten. KOMPAS/ADRYAN YOGA PARAMADWYA (YGA)

Therefore, homecoming travelers, especially those heading to the Jabodetabek area, need to prepare a special strategy for choosing the right time to avoid traffic congestion during the return flow. The policy of joint leave and WFH for some ASN can be a consideration in determining the time to return to their hometowns. Timing can also be adjusted based on projections of the peak flow of return traffic, which show high mobility at the beginning and end of the return flow.

Apart from that, homecoming travelers and travelers are expected to follow developments in engineering information carried out by the government. This is because the government has planned a number of traffic techniques such as contra flow, one way and odd-even, the implementation of which can change depending on field conditions. It is also hoped that traffic density will be reduced with the participation of homecoming travelers and travelers by ensuring that their vehicles are filled with fuel, toll cards and good body condition throughout the journey. In this way, the journey back to Tanah Rantanuan will be safe until the destination. (R&D COMPAS)