In East Java, the current seat map has the potential to change compared to 2019

In East Java, the 2024 elections will produce different configurations of candidates for DPR members and the winning party.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Di Jatim, Peta Kursi Saat Ini Berpotensi Berubah Dibanding 2019

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

Residents received ballots to be cast in the re-voting (PSU) at Polling Station 02, in Ketintang Village, Gayungan Subdistrict, Surabaya, on Saturday (24/2/2024).

The 2024 General Election will produce a different configuration compared to the 2019 edition regarding the House of Representatives from East Java. The number of representatives increased from 85 seats to 87 seats. The political party that wins the most votes has the potential to change.

From the KPU's electoral website, on Sunday (25/2/2024) at 20.00, the preliminary vote count placed nine political parties from Bumi Majapahit, the nickname for East Java, able to pass candidates into the House of Representatives.

Each in sequence according to the number of votes obtained while the most are the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Golongan Karya Party (Golkar), National Democratic Party (Nasdem), Democratic Party, National Mandate Party (PAN), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and United Development Party (PPP).

Data has been received from 88,800 polling stations (TPS) or 73.6 percent of the 120,666 TPS in Jatim. So far, PKB is in the lead with more than 2.631 million valid votes or 19 percent. Next is PDI-P with more than 2.269 million valid votes or 16.4 percent. Gerindra received more than 1.945 million valid votes or 14 percent. Golkar received more than 1.889 million valid votes or 13.6 percent. Nasdem with more than 1.1 million valid votes or 7.9 percent. Next, with less than 1 million valid votes, are Demokrat, PAN, PKS, and PPP.

East Java, with 38 districts/cities, is divided into 11 electoral districts (dapil). The highest representation with 10 seats is in East Java I (Surabaya and Sidoarjo) and East Java VIII (cities and regencies of Mojokerto, Madiun, Jombang, and Nganjuk). The representation of 9 seats is in East Java VI (cities and regencies of Blitar, Kediri, and Tulungagung). The representation increased from seven seats to eight seats in East Java IV (Lumajang and Jember). In East Java X (cities and regencies of Gresik and Lamongan), the representation increased from five seats to six seats.

Also read: Many legislative candidates claim victory, how much does one DPR seat cost?

East Java I

By province, the highest number of votes in 2024 so far is held by PKB. However, the situation changes when looked at in the eleven electoral districts in this province with a population of 40 million people. For example, in Jatim 1, the lead is held by Gerindra with more than 229,000 votes. Next is PDI-P with 169,000 votes, PKB with 131,000 votes, PAN with 105,000 votes, Golkar with 99,000 votes, Nasdem with 82,000 votes, PKS (not translated as per instruction) with 68,000 valid votes, and Democrat with 54,000 valid votes.

In East Java I, the Indonesian Solidarity Party surpassed PKS and Demokrat with almost 69,000 votes. However, on a national level, PSI did not meet the parliamentary threshold and thus failed to send representatives from East Java to the DPR.

The determination of seats in the DPR uses the Sainte Lague method in accordance with Article 415 Paragraph (2) of Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections. In this law it is stated, in terms of calculating the acquisition of DPR seats, the valid votes of each political party that meets the vote acquisition threshold are divided by the divisor number 1 and followed sequentially by the odd number 3 , 5, 7, and so on.

From this method, the candidates for the DPR who have the chance to pass are those who receive the most votes in their political party's column. In East Java I, each political party column on the ballot paper contains ten candidate names or according to the maximum number of seats being contested.

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

Citizens cast their presidential election ballots during the rerun voting (PSU) for the 2024 Presidential Election at Polling Station (TPS) 21 in Menanggal Village, Gayungan District, Surabaya, on Saturday (24/2/2024).

Furthermore, from the results of the votes which were then converted using the Sainte Lague method, the first seat was for Gerindra and the votes were then divided by 3 to become 76,333 votes. The second seat was for PDI-P and the vote share was divided by 3 to 56,333 votes. The third seat is for PKB, fourth for PAN, fifth for Golkar, sixth for Nasdem, and seventh for PKS. The eighth seat is for Gerindra, ninth for PDI-P, and tenth for the Democrats.

However, this is still a preliminary calculation. In East Java I, the vote count was obtained from 8,898 polling stations or 64.8 percent of the 13,733 polling stations in Surabaya-Sidoarjo. The calculation still has the potential to change, including in the determination of political party seats.

Also read: Misguided Thinking of Legislative Candidates Leading Up to the Election

ANTARA/RIZAL HANAFI

Officers of the Satpol PP took down campaign paraphernalia (APK) that was still put up in Surabaya, East Java, on early Sunday morning (February 11th, 2024).

In 2019, Gerindra only placed Rahmat Muhajirin from East Java I. However, for this period, Gerindra's representation could potentially be occupied by Bambang Haryo Soekartono (84,708 votes) and Dhani Ahmad Prasetyo (54,883 votes). Rahmat, for now, has obtained 28,480 votes.

In the previous term, PDI-P placed three individuals from East Java I, namely Puti Guntur Soekarno, Bambang DH, and Indah Kurnia. However, this time around, the ones with the potential to pass are Puti (with 48,116 votes) followed by Indah (with 30,107 votes). Bambang, in the meantime, received 20,016 votes.

Representation from PKB also has the potential to decrease from two seats to one seat. This is being contested by two incumbents, Syaikhul Islam (29,018 votes) and Arzeti Bilbina (30,196 votes) who are currently leading in the vote count.

Also read: The Steep Road for Non-Parliamentary Parties to Win Legislative Seats

Next, PAN will be filled by the incumbent, namely Sungkono (31,803 votes). Similarly, Golkar has the opportunity to return with Adies Kadir (58,224 votes). The position for Nasdem is still being contested by Lita Machfud Arifin (30,280 votes) and Ipong Muchlissoni (26,175 votes).

Seat competition is also experienced in PKS between the incumbent Sigit Sosiantomo (17,076 votes) and the Deputy Speaker of the Surabaya City DPRD, Reny Astuti (16,884 votes). The Democrat party may once again place Lucy Kurniasari (20,043 votes).

KOMPAS/YUNIADHI AGUNG

The poster of a legislative candidate (caleg) who is a participant in the 2024 Election was placed on the wall in TPS 17 of Pondok Karya Village, Pondok Aren, South Tangerang on Wednesday (14/2/2024).

Fat

Representing 10 seats in East Java VIII, PKB is leading and predicted to push through two new representatives, namely Rusdi Kirana, LionAir boss, and Abdul Halim Iskandar, Minister of Villages, Disadvantaged Regions, and Transmigration. Other new faces include Muhammad Habibur Rochman (Nasdem), Mochamad Irfan Yusuf (Gerindra), and Meitri Citra Wardani (PKS). Incumbents include Sadarestuwati (PDI-P), Yahya Zaini (Golkar), Abdul Hakim Bafagih (PAN), Guntur Sasono (Demokrat), and Ema Umiyyatul Chusnah (PPP). Please note that the words PKS and PPP are not to be translated.

In Jatim VI, there are 9 seats available. PDI-P is the front runner here and is predicted to pass two representatives, namely Pulung Agustanto and Sri Rahayu. This is a decrease compared to the previous period, which had three seats. PKB still holds steady with two predictions to pass two incumbents, namely Anggia Erma Rini and An’im Falachuddin.

One seat in Golkar has been added, namely with the incumbent Sarmuji and new face Heru Tjahjono, former Regent of Tulungagung and former Secretary of East Java Province. Furthermore, the incumbent line-up consists of Endro Hermono (Gerindra) who is still competing with Mohammad Mahardhika Suprapto, Nurhadi (Nasdem), and Ahmad Rizki Sadig (PAN).

In East Java IV, representation increased from seven seats to eight seats. Here, PKB is leading and has gained two seats, and is predicted to endorse new candidates, Rivqy Abdul Halim and Ach Ghufron Sirodj. Gerindra endorsed incumbent Bambang Haryadi. PDI-P only endorsed incumbent Arif Wibowo from two seats. Golkar also sent incumbent Muhamad Nur Purnamasidi. Incumbents Charles Meikyansah (Nasdem) and Amin (PKS) have a similar situation. The new seat is likely to be filled by Lucita Izza Rafika (PPP). Please note that no translation is required for PKS, PPP, or PBB.

Representation of eight seats is also present in Jatim V (City and Districts of Malang and Batu), Jatim VII (Pacitan, Ponorogo, Trenggalek, Magetan, and Ngawi), and Jatim XI (Bangkalan, Sampang, Pamekasan, Sumenep in Madura Island). In Jatim V, it is predicted that those who will succeed are Hasanudin Wahid and Ali Ahmad from PKB, Ahmad Basarah from PDI-P, then Andreas Eddy Susetyo or singer Kris Dayanti, Moreno Suprapto and Ma’ruf Mubarok from Gerindra, Ahmad Irawan (Golkar) and Gamal (PKS).

In East Java VII, the Secretary General of the Democratic Party, Edhie Baskoro Yudhoyono, will once again run and be accompanied by Sartono. PDI-P will introduce new faces, Budi "Kanang" Sulistyono, former two-term regent of Ngawi, and Novita Hardini. After that, there are Iman Sukri (PKB), Supriyanto (Gerindra), Ali Mufthi (Golkar), and Misbahul Huda (not to be translated).

In East Java XI, the vote counting data only covers 27 percent. In the constituency with representation of eight seats, it is still difficult to predict which candidates will pass as people's representatives.

Also read: The “Ninja” Way for Kere Legislative Candidates with Kengkul Capital

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Billboards showing the faces of parliamentary candidates from various political parties were removed from different locations during the quiet period in Ungaran, Semarang Regency, Central Java on Sunday (11/2/2024).

Edge

The electoral district with representation of seven seats is located in Jatim II (Pasuruan City and Regency and Probolinggo City and Regency) and Jatim III (Banyuwangi, Bondowoso, Situbondo). Meanwhile, there are six seats of representation in Jatim IX (Bojonegoro and Tuban) and Jatim X, which has just gained an additional seat.

In East Java II, the PKB is predicted to pass two candidates, namely incumbent Faisol Riza and Mohammad Irsyad Yusuf, former Regent of Pasuruan for two periods. Each will occupy a seat, with Anwar Sadad (Gerindra), Vice Chairman of the East Java DPRD, incumbent Mufti Anam (PDI-P), Mukhamad Misbakhun (Golkar), and Moh Haerul Amri (Nasdem), as well as new face Syaiful Nuri (PAN).

In East Java III, the majority is dominated by the incumbent party. Nasim Khan and Nihayatul Wafiroh from PKB, Sonny Tri Danaparamita (PDI-P), Zulfikar Arse Sadikin (Golkar), Sumail Abdullah (Gerindra), and Anas Thahir (PPP) are all in the running. The new face is actress Dina Lorenza Audria (Democrat).

It is predicted that Haeny Relawati Rini Widyastuti and Eko Wahyudi (Golkar), Ratna Juwita Sari and Anna Mu’awanah (PKB), Wihadi Wijanto (Gerindra), and Abidin Pikri (PDI-P) will pass Jatim IX. In Jatim X, PDI-P can send two of its representatives, namely Nasyirul Falah Amru and Nila Yani Hardiyanti. Additionally, there are Jazilul Fawaid (PKB), Ahmad Labib (Golkar), Khilmi (Gerindra), and Jiddan (Nasdem).

Also read: Costs Billions to Penetrate Senayan

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Residents crossed a banner calling to reject money politics in the 2024 election, installed by the Bawaslu on Margonda Main Street, Depok, West Java, on Tuesday (13/2/2024).

According to senior lecturer of political communication at the Trunojoyo University in Madura, Surokim Abdussalam, the recent election results show that familiarity is an important factor for candidates' success, especially for celebrities from East Java. However, this factor is not an absolute determinant as some celebrities who ran for office did not succeed.

"The main thing is how political parties can be more accepted by society," said Surokim.

In 2019, the number of members of parliament from East Java was 85. At that time, PDI-P was in the lead with 19 seats, followed by PKB with 18 seats and 11 seats each for Gerindra and Golkar. However, this period, PDI-P's vote count has decreased, resulting in their representation in parliament also dropping to 13 seats. PDI-P lost 6 seats while representation from East Java increased by 2 seats.

The main priority is how political parties can be more accepted by the public.

According to Surokim, traditionally, PKB (National Awakening Party) is still strong in East Java even though its chairman, Muhaimin Iskandar, lost in the presidential and vice presidential election. Muhaimin was paired with presidential candidate Anies Baswedan (number 1 on the ballot).

For the presidential election in East Java, the vote count for Anies-Muhaimin is currently trailing behind Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka (number 2) and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD (number 3). The PKB voters for the legislative elections (DPR, DPRD Jatim, and DPRD regencies/cities) are still strong although they do not necessarily manifest in the presidential election.

Gerindra is boosted by Prabowo-Gibran. Despite losing in the 2014 and 2019 legislative elections to PKB and PDI-P and Prabowo's defeat to President Joko Widodo, Gerindra's position remains strong. However, the party's vote base from those two periods has been maintained well by party members and supporters, as evidenced by their recent performance in the elections.