If the scenario goes, the rice surplus will reach 10.46 million tons this year

This year, the rice surplus is estimated to reach 10.46 million tons. The limited stock of rice in modern retail is being handled.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Jika Skenario Berjalan, Surplus Beras Capai 10,46 Juta Ton Tahun Ini

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO (PRI)

Notice regarding the restriction of the number of purchases of premium rice at a retail supermarket in the Kebayoran Lama area of South Jakarta on Sunday (11/2/2024). The restriction is suspected to be due to a shortage of rice stock during the January-February 2024 period.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Indonesia is estimated to have a rice surplus of 10.46 million tons this year. In order for such a large surplus to be realized, the potential for crop failure and rice planting disruptions needs to be anticipated and addressed. Apart from that, rice imports also need to be realized.

This emerged at the Regional Inflation Control Meeting held by the Ministry of Home Affairs in a hybrid manner in Jakarta, Monday (12/2/2024). The meeting chaired by the Minister of Home Affairs Muhammad Tito Karnavian was also attended by Deputy III for Economic Affairs Presidential Staff Office (KSP) Edy Priyono.

Deputy for Consumption Diversity and Food Safety National Food Agency (Bapanas) Andriko Noto Susanto said, Bapanas has prepared a National Food Balance Prognosis for the January-December 2024 period. There are 11 basic food commodities covered in it based on stock scenarios, production estimates, import plans and annual needs.

Also read: Potential Rice Surplus Haunted by Flood and Rice Risks

For example, rice. The remaining stock from last year, which became the beginning stock for this year, is 7.3 million tons. Domestic rice production is estimated to be 31.93 million tons, and there are plans to import 2.44 million tons. With an annual need of 31.21 million tons, the year-end stock will have a rice surplus of 10.46 million tons.

"The estimated surplus can be realized if all of those scenarios run smoothly. In addition, for import procurement, it must be in the right amount and at the right time so that the government's food reserves, in addition to domestic procurement, can be fulfilled," he said.

On that occasion, Edy reiterated the importance of anticipating potential crop disruption and crop failure in a number of areas due to the impact of weather changes. This disturbance could be due to flooding, minimal rainfall, and high grain water content due to high rainfall and high frequency of rain.

KSP noted that in February 2024, for example, there were 19 regions at high risk of crop disruption and 50 regions at high risk of harvest disruption. Some regions at high risk of harvest disruption include Sambas, Sanggau, Malang, Pasuruan, Demak, Agam, and Kudus.

"Therefore, each region must mitigate and manage the risk to avoid disruption in food production," said Edy.

In the past two weeks, floods have hit several rice-producing areas in Indonesia, particularly in Demak, Grobogan, and Kudus districts in Central Java. The Ministry of Agriculture noted that floods affected 7,026 hectares of agricultural land in Demak, Kudus, and Grobogan.

The estimated surplus will be realized if all scenarios run smoothly.

In Demak, floods inundated 1,657 ha of rice crops and 126 ha of corn crops. In Kudus, 489 ha of agricultural land was flooded. The land is planted with rice, chilies, melons and kale. Meanwhile in Grobogan, floods inundated 4,754 ha of agricultural land, including rice fields, in 15 sub-districts (Kompas, 10/2/2024).

Also read: Floods during rice deficit trigger higher grain prices

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Female Islamic boarding school students who had to stop their studying activities while crossing the floods in Gubug District, Grobogan Regency, Central Java, on Tuesday (6/2/2024). The floods caused by the overflow of Tuntang River that occurred since dawn disrupted road access, breached river embankment, and inundated settlements and public facilities.

Floods in the region began on February 5th, 2024. The floods were caused by the breach of the Wulan and Jratun River embankments in the areas of Demak and Grobogan, as well as the overflow of the Tuntang River in Grobogan. The floods occurred amidst a rice deficit of 2.83 million tons in January-February 2024, causing the prices of rice and paddy to rise.

According to the Bapanas Food Price Panel, as of February 12, 2024, the national average price for dry-harvested rice grains (GKP) at the farmer level is Rp 7,060 per kg. This price has increased by 3.82 percent on a monthly basis and 22.66 percent on an annual basis.

The average price of medium-grade rice in the country is Rp 13,840 per kg. The essential food commodity has seen a monthly increase of 3.83% and an annual increase of 15.02%. The price is also higher than the government's designated maximum retail price (HET) based on zoning, which is Rp 10,900-Rp 11,800 per kg.

Also read: Floods in Grobogan have not subsided, agricultural land is also affected

Modern retail

The rice deficit in January-February 2024 is also starting to affect rice stocks in modern retail. Several minimarkets and supermarkets have recently begun to experience a shortage of both medium and premium rice stock.

On February 11-12, 2024, supplies of premium rice and the Stabilization of Food Supply and Price (SPHP) program in several minimarkets and supermarkets in Tangerang Selatan, Banten, have depleted, and some have even run out. If available, purchases are limited to 1 package for 10 kg packaging and 2 packages for 2.5 kg, 3 kg, and 5 kg packaging.

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO (PRI)

Officials arrange rice at a retail shopping center in the Karang Tengah area of ​​Tangerang City, Banten, on Thursday (8/2/2024). Rice has become one of the commodity contributors to inflation in January 2024.

The Chairman of the Association of Indonesian Retail Entrepreneurs (Aprindo), Roy Nicholas Mandey, stated that modern retailers are having difficulty in obtaining supplies of rice, especially local premium rice in 5 kg packaging. This situation has led retailers to temporarily limit the purchase of premium rice.

In addition, the rice program SPHP from Bulog has not yet been widely distributed. "The imbalance between supply and demand has also triggered an increase in rice prices, both in modern retail and traditional markets," he said.

The Bapanas Food Price Panel indicates that the national average price of premium rice as of February 12, 2024 reached Rp 15,790 per kg. The price increased by 4.23 percent monthly and 15.08 percent annually.

To overcome this, the government through Perum Bulog continues to intervene in the rice market amidst the temporary suspension of rice assistance for 22 million low-income families. As of February 11, 2024, the realization has reached 220,475 tons.

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO (PRI)

Residents carried donated rice that was received through the Kreo Selatan Sub-district Office, Larangan, Tangerang City, Banten on Wednesday (7/2/2024). The government has started distributing rice aid in 2024.

Head of Operational Planning and Public Services Division of Bulog, Epi Sulandari, stated that the government's rice stock at Bulog has decreased to 1.187 million tons on February 11, 2024. Bulog is still making efforts to import rice to increase stocks before the harvest season takes place.

The government has asked Bulog to temporarily suspend the distribution of rice aid to 22 million beneficiary families from February 8-14, 2024. This is purportedly to respect the election. At the same time, Bulog has been assigned to supply twice as much rice from its SPHP program as usual to the Cipinang Rice Market, modern retail markets, and traditional markets.

Also read: President promises to immediately realize BLT Puso so there won't be a lot of rice imports

In addition, Bulog is also requested to sell rice at the appropriate price to the public through the cheap food movement in cooperation with local governments. The sale of SPHP rice is also conducted by Bulog to a number of partner warung networks.

"On February 11th, 2024, we have distributed 220,475 tons of rice through the SPHP program. On work days, the average distribution ranges from 8,000-13,000 tons per day, while on holidays it is below 3,000 per ton," he said.