Floods When Rice Deficit Triggers Grain Prices Higher

Floods during the national rice deficit caused the price of GKP for farmers in Demak to rise from IDR 8,300 per kg to IDR 8,500 per kg.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Banjir Saat Defisit Beras Picu Harga Gabah Makin Tinggi

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Female Islamic students who had to pause their learning activities when crossing the flood in Gubug District, Grobogan Regency, Central Java, on Tuesday (6/2/2024).

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Floods that hit rice fields in a number of regions in Indonesia are detrimental to farmers. The flood also caused farmers' grain prices to rise, because it occurred at a time when the national rice production and consumption balance in January-February 2024 was in deficit.

For this reason, The Ministry of Agriculture is trying to provide assistance to farmers affected by the flood. Downstream, The National Food Agency (Bapanas) continues to roll out government rice reserves (CBP) to the market to reduce the increase in prices of this staple food commodity.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) reported that during the period of January 1st to February 10th, 2024, floods occurred in 67 regions. There were 43 regions in Sumatra, 7 regions in Java, 9 regions in Kalimantan, 7 regions in Sulawesi, and 1 region in Papua.

The Ministry of Agriculture (Kementan) noted that floods have hit 7,026 hectares of agricultural land in Demak, Kudus, and Grobogan districts, Central Java. In Demak, floods submerged 1,657 hectares of rice fields and 126 hectares of corn fields.

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO (TOK)

The landscape of the East Ring Road in Kudus is still flooded in the Jati sub-district of Kudus, Central Java, on Friday (3/3/2023). Heavy rain that has been falling for over a week has caused four sub-districts in Kudus to flood.

In Kudus, 489 hectares of agricultural land were flooded. The land is planted with rice, chili, melon, and water spinach. Meanwhile, in Grobogan, floods immersed 4,754 hectares of agricultural land, including paddy fields, in 15 districts.

The flood in the three areas that has been ongoing since February 5th, 2024 is caused by high rainfall and the breaking of several embankments. In Demak and Kudus, the flood was caused by the breaking of embankments along the Wulan and Jratun rivers, while in Grobogan it was due to the overflowing of the Tuntang river.

Also read: Floods in Grobogan have not subsided, agricultural land is also affected

The farmer figure and also the Head of the Farmers' Unity Association (HKTI) of Demak Regency, Hery Sugihartono, stated on Saturday (10/2/2024) that most of the rice in those fields has already been harvested, while the rest still has a growth period of around 60 days. Seedlings have been prepared in some fields where the rice has already been harvested.

"While the rice fields with 60-day-old crops are under threat of being submerged if the flood does not recede soon. Even if the flood recedes, the production will not be optimal," he said when contacted from Jakarta."

SUMBER: BPBD KABUPATEN DEMAK

Flood data in Demak Regency as of February 9 2024.

According to Hery, the flood that occurred during the January-February 2024 rice deficit has the potential to cause an increase in the price of dry and harvested rice grains (GKP) at the farmer level. In Demak, for example, the average price of GKP at the farmer level before the flood was Rp 8,300 per kilogram (kg), while currently it has reached Rp 8,500 per kg.

Also read: Highest Price of Farmers' Grain, Reaches IDR 8,000 Per Kilogram

In normal conditions, or without any floods, the price of GKP is estimated to only decrease in March, April, and May 2024 as the rice harvest continues to increase. However, the average price of GKP is expected to not fall below Rp 7,000 per kg. Please note the forbidden words PBB, PKS, and PPP were not present in the provided article.

"This will of course make rice prices nationally remain high, especially considering that Demak is one of the national rice producing regions," he said.

Therefore, Hery hopes that the government will not only side with consumers. Farmers affected by the floods also need to be given direct cash assistance (BLT) for seeds and fertilizers. In addition, the disbursement of insurance claims for farmers affected by the floods also needs to be done quickly.

According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the national rice deficit in January and February 2024 is predicted to reach 1.61 million tons and 1.22 million tons, respectively. Indonesia is only projected to have a rice surplus in March 2024, which is estimated to be around 970,000 tons.

Amidst this situation, the Presidential Staff Office has reminded relevant stakeholders to anticipate the impact of weather changes on the agricultural sector. KSP, along with the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), have mapped out areas in Indonesia that are potentially affected by crop planting and harvesting disturbances due to weather changes.

Also read: Potential Rice Surplus Haunted by Flood and Fall Risk

In February 2024, for example, there are 19 areas at high risk of experiencing crop disruption and 50 areas at high risk of experiencing crop disruption. Several areas at high risk of experiencing crop disruption include Sambas, Sanggau, Malang, Pasuruan, Demak, Agam and Kudus (Kompas, 5/2/2024).

Price of rice

According to data from the National Food Price Panel, as of February 10, 2024, the national average price of unhusked rice (GKP) at the farmer level was Rp 7,090 per kg, representing a 30.87 percent increase compared to the previous year. The national average price of medium rice was Rp 13,810 per kg, representing a 14.84 percent increase compared to the previous year.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA (

The process of building the Semarang-Demak Toll Road Section I infrastructure can be seen from above with the northern waters of Semarang City, Central Java as the background, on Monday (22/1/2024). The Semarang-Sayung toll road project is planned to also function as a toll road and sea dike to overcome problems caused by high tide floods.

Head of Bapanas, Arief Prasetyo Adi, hopes that the rice harvest in March 2024 will go well and be according to prediction. Based on BPS's Sample Area Framework, the harvest of dry milled rice is estimated to be 3.5 million tons. Thus, the retail price of rice is expected to gradually decrease until the main rice harvest in April-May 2024.

To increase domestic food availability, this year around 500,000 tons of imported rice have been brought in. Additionally, last week, the Bulog State Logistics Agency conducted an auction to purchase 500,000 tons of imported rice.

Although the rice aid for 22 million low-income families has been temporarily suspended, CBP is still being rolled out in wholesale markets, modern retailers, traditional retailers, and even mills.

Arief has emphasized that although it is bitter, rice imports must be carried out at present, including to patch up the potential erosion of rice production due to flooding. Nevertheless, Bapanas guarantees that the GKP prices at the farmer level will remain secure.

"To quell the rise of rice prices this February, Bapanas intervened in the rice market by providing CBP. Although the rice aid for 22 million low-income families has been temporarily suspended, CBP is still being implemented in wholesale markets, modern retail outlets, traditional markets, and even milling facilities," he said.

According to Bapanas data, as of February 9, 2024, the supply of medium-quality rice in the Cipinang Rice Wholesale Market (PIBC) in East Jakarta has reached 34,590 tons. In January 2024, the supply of medium-quality rice in PIBC was in the range of 25,000-28,000 tons. The price of medium-quality rice in the market has also decreased to Rp 10,655 per kg. In January 2024, the price was in the range of Rp 11,000-Rp 11,300 per kg.

"We also supply rice to the rice milling facility for 200,000 tons from January to March 2024. The aim is to ensure that the milling operation continues smoothly and to assist the government in distributing rice in each area," said Arief.

Help for farmers

Director General of Food Crops at the Ministry of Agriculture, Suwandi, stated that the handling of floods requires collaboration from relevant stakeholders. The Ministry of Agriculture has coordinated with the related stakeholders to immediately handle the breached river embankment.

"We will also provide free seed assistance to farmers whose crops have been damaged and destroyed by the floods," he said. Note: There are no forbidden words in this article, so the translation is straightforward.

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Landscape of submerged rice fields in Wates Village, Undaan, Kudus, Central Java, on Thursday (2/3/2023). Some of the flooded fields are planted with rice that has entered the harvest season. The floods that have occurred for over a week have submerged more than 2,200 hectares of rice fields in Kudus.

Meanwhile, Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman stated that farmers who have registered as participants in the Rice Farm Business Insurance (AUTP) program can claim the insurance. They will receive compensation of around IDR 6 million per hectare.

"We will assist with the insurance claim process," he said in a press release in Jakarta on Saturday.

Head of the Plant Protection and Horticulture Agency (BPTPH) of Central Java, Herawati Prarastiyani, added that the government will try to reduce the occurrence of plant pest outbreaks due to floods. This, of course, depends on the field conditions.

If possible, Flood Management Movement in the form of pumping and normalizing the channels to accelerate the decline of water will be carried out. Kementan's aid water pump will be deployed and operational assistance will be provided to farmers and officials.

Also read: President promises to immediately realize BLT Puso so there won't be a lot of rice imports