How Does Climate Change Play a Role in Deadly Forest Fires like the one in Chile?
The ever-warming earth could turn remaining forests into fuel.
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The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Bagaimana Perubahan Iklim Berperan dalam Kebakaran Hutan Mematikan seperti di Chile?
Extreme heat waves and droughts have hit several South American countries, causing forest and land fires. In Chile, forest fires have spread to urban areas, claiming at least 112 lives and leaving 200 missing, raising concerns about the adverse effects of global warming.
A massive fire that broke out since Friday (2/2/2024) has burnt 110,000 hectares of forests, including the historic botanical garden in the tourist city of Viña del Mar, Chile.
According to a report from AP news agency, as of Monday (5/2/2024), a total of 112 people were found dead due to being trapped in a fire and smoke that engulfed their homes, with 200 people reported missing.
A fire broke out when many people were on summer vacation in Viña del Mar, a city with a population of around 330,000, and swept through smaller neighboring cities such as Quilpué, Limache, and Villa Alemana.
In several hillside areas, many elderly residents were unable to save themselves. At least 1,600 people have lost their homes.
Also read: Fire Rages in Chile, 112 People Killed
Chile's Minister of the Interior, Carolina Toháoha, said that this event is undoubtedly the deadliest fire disaster in the country's history. With hundreds of people still missing, she expressed that the number of fatalities will "reach much higher numbers."
The fire in Chile occurred amidst a heat wave that raised temperatures in the capital city of Santiago to around 37 degrees Celsius. This heat wave also sparked forest fires in several other countries in South America, such as Colombia, Ecuador, and Argentina.
Climate change factors
The El Nino phenomenon that is still occurring until early 2024 has caused South America to experience a hotter summer after a cool winter in 2023. Meanwhile, the northern hemisphere experienced record-breaking heat waves at that time.
Climate change that causes heat waves and droughts, currently affecting South America, has contributed to forest fires by drying out plants that become sources of flames. Climate change has made the world warmer, which means that plants evaporate more water through them and the soil becomes drier.
This event is undoubtedly the deadliest fire disaster in the history of the country.
The devastating wildfire that struck Chile is reminiscent of the tragic forest fire that spread to the historic town of Lahaina on Maui Island, Hawaii, killing 106 people in August 2023, at the onset of El Nino. Like in Chile, drought and scorching heat also hit Maui at that time.
Also read: Forest fires hit West Australia, residents asked to evacuate
In 2023, we witnessed a massive forest fire ravage Canada. More than 15 million hectares of land were burned across the country last year, breaking the previous record of 7.6 million hectares in 1989 and an average of 2.5 million hectares in the last 10 years.
Using satellite data, World Resources Institute (WRI) has calculated that current wildfires destroy approximately 2.9 million forests worldwide each year, which is equivalent to the size of Belgium and twice the size of forests 20 years ago.
Meanwhile, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also found that globally, extreme heat waves occur five times more frequently due to human-caused global warming. Fire seasons are becoming drier and hotter, creating ideal conditions for forest fires to occur.
Risk increases
Report by W. Matt Jolly from the US Forest Service and his team in the journal Nature (2015) shows that the fire season is on average 18.7 percent longer due to climate change. This means that there is an increased likelihood of fires occurring, which can bring catastrophe.
Reports from several countries also indicate that forest fires have become more extreme. For example, Yizhou Zhuang's study from the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California in the PNAS journal in 2021 concluded that climate change has become the main driver of increased wildfire weather in the western United States.
Drought and continuous heat have triggered an unprecedented forest fire season from 2020 to 2022 in many western states, with the average annual fires during the three-year period far surpassing the average 1.2 million hectares burned since 2016.
The extreme fire behavior during this period has surprised the firefighting team. Flames have been burning for months, other fires have razed entire communities, and others occur during nocturnal winds, when firefighters usually rely on extinguishing the fires.
This research indicates that climate change creates warmer and drier conditions, which result in longer and more active wildfire seasons. Rising temperatures and drought in the atmosphere, caused by human-induced climate change, increase the potential for forests to become fuel.
Also read: Earth's increasingly ambiguous climate
This driving factor is responsible for over half of the decline in tree water levels in western US forests from 1979 to 2015, and a doubling of the area burned by wildfires during the 1984-2015 period.
In most of the western regions of the United States, projections show that a 1 degree Celsius increase in average annual temperature will increase the median area burned per year by 600 percent in some types of forests.
The United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) program in "Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires" in March 2022 has warned that the global community must prepare for a sharp increase in forest fires in the coming decades as a consequence of global warming.
In this report, UNEP also urges countries that are prone to forest fires, including Indonesia and South America, to allocate two-thirds of their forest fire management budget for planning, prevention, preparedness, and restoration, and the remaining one-third for response.
This report concludes that by the end of this century, the likelihood of forest fires disasters will increase by a factor of 1.31 to 1.57. Even under the lowest emission scenarios, we are likely to see a significant increase in forest fire events.
Forest fires in Chile this time, and a series of similar disasters that have affected various countries, are a warning of the danger that we all face. A warming Earth could turn the remaining forests into fuel.
On the other hand, forest fire disasters can worsen climate change by contributing significant greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, which ultimately adds to the pace of global warming.