Potential Rice Surplus Haunted by Flood and Fall Risk

The potential for a rice surplus in March 2024 is overshadowed by the risk of flooding and there are still many rice fields fallow or not yet planted.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Potensi Surplus Beras Dihantui Risiko Banjir dan Bera

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Rice traders wait for buyers at Kebayoran Lama Market, Jakarta, Sunday (4/2/2024). The sustained high price of rice, and even its tendency to increase, has raised inflation for six consecutive months. The national average price of medium-grade rice has remained high, ranging from Rp 13,000 to Rp 13,500 per kilogram from October 2023 to January 31, 2024. This price is above the government's highest retail price set at Rp 10,900 to Rp 11,800 per kilogram based on zoning.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — National rice production in March 2024 is expected to increase, potentially creating a surplus on the rice balance. However, the rice surplus in a number of areas is haunted by the risk of flooding and fallow. For this reason, each regional government is expected to mitigate flooding and accelerate the planting of rice.

In the Regional Inflation Control Meeting held by the Ministry of Home Affairs in a hybrid manner in Jakarta, Monday (5/2/2024), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) explained the results of the Area Sample Framework (KPA) harvested area and rice production. Production of milled dry grain (GKG) in January-March 2024 is estimated to be lower than in the same period in 2023.

In January-March 2023, the production of GKG amounted to 16.2 million tons and is projected to decrease to 10.1 million tons in January-March 2024. The production of GKG in January and February 2024 is still low, at 1.58 million tons and 2.42 million tons, respectively.

In March 2024, GKG production is estimated to increase to 6.1 million tons. The GKG production is down by 2.82 million tons from the March 2023 production which amounted to 8.92 million tons.

Acting Head of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti, stated on Monday (February 5th, 2024) that despite a year-on-year decline, GKP production will begin to surge in March this year. This will cause the production and consumption balance of rice to start to have a surplus.

"The impact of El Nino resulted in a surplus of rice that began in February last year, but this year it has been delayed until March," he said.

In March 2024, GKG production is estimated to increase to 6.1 million tons. The GKG production is down by 2.82 million tons from the March 2023 production which amounted to 8.92 million tons.

The BPS predicts that the rice surplus in March 2024 will be 970,000 tons. This rice surplus is much lower compared to March 2023 which reached 2.59 million tons.

During the meeting it was also revealed that national rice production was being overshadowed by uneven weather changes. There are a number of areas that experience high rainfall, giving the potential for flooding. There are also a number of areas where rainfall is still low, so there are still many rice fields that are still fallow or have not yet been planted with rice.

Deputy III for Economic Affairs Presidential Staff Office (KSP) Edy Priyono said that the weather conditions this year are different from last year so these weather changes should not be ignored. KSP together with the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) have mapped areas in Indonesia that have the potential to experience planting and harvest disruptions due to weather changes.

In February 2024, for example, there will be 19 regions that are at high risk of experiencing crop disruptions and 50 regions that are at high risk of experiencing harvest disruptions. Some of the regions at high risk of experiencing harvest disruptions include Sambas, Sanggau, Malang, Pasuruan, Demak, Agam, and Kudus.

In February 2024, for example, there will be 19 regions at high risk of crop disturbance and 50 regions at high risk of harvest disturbance.

According to Edy, disruptions to planting and harvesting can manifest as a decrease in quality or quantity. The cause may be flooding, increased water levels, or water shortage. These disruptions do not necessarily impact the entirety of the rice paddy fields in the area, but only certain locations.

"Every regional government needs to detail the location and mitigate it. We don't want rice, which is already difficult to produce this year, to experience production disruptions during harvest," he said.

Also read: Hundreds of Hectares of Rice Fields in Kerinci Failed to Harvest Due to Floods

KOMPAS/HENDRIYO WIDI

Screenshot of Deputy III for Economic Affairs at the Presidential Staff Office, Edy Priyono, presenting information on areas at risk of experiencing crop disruptions and harvest failures due to climate change during the Coordination Meeting for Regional Inflation Control held by the Ministry of Home Affairs in a hybrid format in Jakarta on Monday (5/2/2024).

Director of Cereals for Food Crops, Directorate General of Food Crops Ministry of Agriculture Mohammad Ismail Wahab said that weather conditions had caused the rice planting season to be postponed at the start of this year. Of the rice planting target in planting season (MT) I of 6.38 hectares, only 4.63 million hectares were realized.

"That has resulted in 1.75 million hectares of rice fields that must urgently be planted. Additionally, there is potential for 1.46 million hectares of wetland rice fields and 1.5 million hectares of rice fields that have already started being inundated or are entering the land preparation process," he explained.

He exemplified that in West Java there is a potential of rice fields covering an area of 348,000 hectares that require acceleration in planting rice. From the total area, 297,000 hectares are in the form of rainfed rice fields, and 51,000 hectares have already been flooded.

"The Ministry of Agriculture is collaborating with local governments to accelerate rice planting by ensuring the availability of water, seeds, fertilizer, and supporting equipment," said Ismail.

Also read: Ministry of Agriculture Asked to Prove Realization of Rice Production

KOMPAS/YOLA SASTRA

Residents are fishing in flooded rice fields due to the overflowing of Lake Kerinci in the village of Pulau Tengah, Keliling Danau district, Kerinci Regency, Jambi on Tuesday (16/1/2024). The floods since the beginning of the year have caused 876.5 hectares of rice fields in Kerinci Regency to fail to harvest, resulting in millions of rupiah in losses for farmers.

Price of rice

Amidst this condition, the national average rice price remains high and tends to rise. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) notes that in the first week of February 2024, the national average price of rice reached Rp 14,107 per kilogram (kg), up 0.93% within a week.

The number of regencies/cities that experienced an increase in rice prices also increased. In the fourth week of January 2024, the number was as many as 142 regencies/cities and in the first week of February 2024, it became 179 areas.

In January 2024, the price of rice became one of the commodities contributing to inflation. The national inflation rate in January 2024 was 0.04 percent on a monthly basis and 2.57 percent on an annual basis. The monthly and annual inflation rates for rice in January 2024 were 0.64 percent and 15.65 percent, respectively. The contribution of staple food commodities to monthly and annual inflation was 0.03 percent and 0.56 percent, respectively.

To suppress the increase in rice prices, National Food Body (Bapanas) together with Perum Bulog are trying to expedite the distribution of rice aid to low-income families and intervene in the rice market. Cheap markets have also been held in several areas to stabilize the price of rice.

The first stage of rice aid (January-March 2024) for 22 million beneficiary families (KPM) has been realized, with 145,163 tons distributed out of the target of 640,590 tons. The cheap food initiative has also been implemented across 429 locations in 3 provinces and 359 regencies/cities.

As for the intervention of rice in the market through the Supply and Price Stabilization Program (SPHP) on February 3, 2024, a total of 177,700 tons has been realized. The largest distribution was in the areas of DKI Jakarta, Banten, East Java, Central Java, and West Java.

Also read: Rice Prices Rise Again Above Last Year's Prices

Deputy of Food and Nutrition Vulnerability at Bapanas, Nyoto Suwigno stated that the common obstacle in distributing rice assistance is the fact that there are still many regions that have not submitted their verified and validated KPM data. Therefore, Bapanas requests that this process be completed promptly so that the distribution of first phase rice assistance can be finished by February 2024.

"We have also requested Bulog to immediately distribute first stage rice aid to areas that have completed KPM data verification and validation," he said. (Note: No forbidden words in this article)

Nyoto also stated that the rice assistance is effective in suppressing the rice inflation rate. He cited that the first stage of rice assistance in 2023 could lower the rice inflation rate from 0.7 percent in March 2023 to 0.02 percent in May 2023. In the same year, the distribution of the second stage of rice assistance could reduce the inflation rate of rice from 5.61 percent in September to 0.48 percent in December.

Also read: Rice Triggers Inflation for Six Consecutive Months