Big Zero Carbon Ambition, Bigger Fossil Energy Production

Coal production is more than the production figure to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Ambisi Nol Karbon Besar, Produksi Energi Fosil Lebih Besar

KOMPAS/PRIYOMBODO

Barges loaded with coal pass through the Mahakam River in Samarinda, East Kalimantan on Monday (8/3/2021). According to data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia's coal production as of March 8, 2021 reached 93.42 million tons, equivalent to 16.99 percent of the production target of 550 million tons in 2021.

The impact of climate change is evident in various parts of the world in the form of heatwaves, droughts, forest fires, storms, and floods. The world cannot mitigate the disasters caused by climate change without addressing the root cause, which is dependence on fossil fuels.

The translation is as follows: Fossil fuel emits large amounts of carbon dioxide when burned. These emissions trap heat in the atmosphere, causing the Earth's temperature to rise over time. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) notes that nearly 90 percent of global carbon dioxide comes from fossil fuels.

However, the world's commitment and ambition in realizing the carbon neutral target is in contrast to the facts which show that the production of coal, oil and gas in various parts of the world is still carried out on a massive scale.

In the Production Gap Report for 2023 released by UNEP in November, it was revealed that there is a discrepancy between the production of coal, oil, and gas in 20 major producing countries, including Indonesia, and the global production limit that corresponds to the Paris Agreement targets.

Globally, coal production is estimated to exceed the allowable production limit by 460 percent in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The gap in the production of fossil fuels emitting carbon in 2030 is projected to be 110 percent higher than what is required to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 69 percent higher than using a scenario of limiting the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. Forbidden words not applicable.

Twenty countries, namely Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, and the United Kingdom, are also considered to still provide significant policy support for fossil fuel production.

UNEP highlights Indonesia as one of the countries that has very high economic dependence on fossil energy sources. The oil and gas industry contributes up to 12 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Apart from that, Indonesia is still active as the third largest coal exporter in the world.

If further investigated, the impact of energy policies from the governments of 20 countries has the potential to increase global coal production by 2030, and global production of oil and gas by 2050. Globally, coal production figures are estimated to increase by more than 460 percent by 2030. Overproduction also occurs in gas commodities (82 percent) and crude oil (29 percent).

This certainly further widens the gap between fossil fuel production and the commitment to achieve carbon neutrality over time.

The continuing gap in fossil energy production globally shows that the world's ambition to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to a neutral point is not in line with the commitment between each country in carrying out the energy transition.

Also Read: Level of Dependence on Fossil Energy Still High

For this reason, the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference, or what is more popularly called COP28, which will be held 30 November-12 December 2023 in Dubai, must create world understanding that the era of fossil energy is approaching. end.

The understanding created needs to be followed up with consistent policies to increase the use mix of renewable energy, reduce the use of fossil fuels, and increase energy efficiency. However, these three factors can only work if the energy transition can be carried out fairly and evenly.

Generally, developed countries already use energy mix of renewable energy which tends to be greater than developing countries. The relatively large use of renewable energy sources is in accordance with the characteristics of developed countries, the majority of which have shifted their economic focus to the service sector.

The condition and economic structure enable developed countries to have ample space to develop renewable energy sources on a massive scale. In addition to being able to more effectively reduce carbon emissions, the development of renewable energy sources further strengthens energy resilience in wealthy countries.

The characteristics of developed countries are vastly different from developing countries that are actively building their economies by creating industrial sectors. This, of course, requires a significant energy supply to support the maximum production of goods and services.

In fact, the use of fossil energy is crucial in supporting the success of industrialization development. The need for fossil energy, whether it be crude oil, natural gas, or coal, in several developing countries, including Indonesia, is still significant in creating a better welfare for the society. During this phase, carbon emissions produced will generally increase and become more polluting.

However, the world must work together in pursuing and realizing the target for renewable energy as the transition to clean energy is now a necessity. This is not only to reduce carbon emissions but also to protect other developing countries from global pressure caused by fluctuations in fossil fuel prices.

Because, another negative effect of high dependence on fossil energy is that energy security and the economy are relatively vulnerable to global energy situations. This is especially true for countries with minimal fossil energy resources, which must continue to import energy on a large scale.