Fierce Contest Among Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates
The surge in Prabowo Subianto's electability is attributed to the accumulation of numerous strategies. Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan are both optimistic about reversing the situation.
Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo dan Anies Baswedan.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The competition among three potential presidential candidates (capres) for the upcoming 2024 presidential election, namely Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, is intensifying. The electability of several potential vice-presidential candidates (cawapres) is also fiercely contested. With none of the presidential candidates commanding a dominant electability exceeding 50 percent, the selection of the vice-presidential candidate is poised to play a crucial role in determining the election outcome.
Referring to the survey results conducted by Kompas Research and Development (Litbang) from 29 April to 10 May 2023, Prabowo Subianto, the potential presidential candidate from the Gerindra Party, has once again emerged with the highest electability as the public's preferred choice for president, with a percentage of 24.5. His electability has shown a significant increase of over 6 percent compared to a similar survey conducted in January, which reported 18.1 percent. This notable achievement places Prabowo in close pursuit of Ganjar Pranowo, the potential presidential candidate from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the United Development Party (PPP), who obtained an electability rating of 22.8 percent. However, it should be noted Ganjar's electability has experienced a decline from the January survey, when it stood at 25.3 percent.
Despite fluctuations, it is worth mentioning the difference in electability between Prabowo and Ganjar still falls within the margin of error range of +/- 2.83 percent.
As for the potential presidential candidate from the Coalition of Change for Unity (KPP) consisting of the Nasdem Party, Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Anies Baswedan, he currently holds the third position with an electability of 13.6 percent, showing a slight increase of 0.5 percent compared to the previous survey.
In simulated face-to-face matchups among the potential presidential candidates, Prabowo consistently outperforms both Ganjar and Anies. When matched against Ganjar, Prabowo garners support from 51.1 percent of respondents. In a hypothetical matchup against Anies, the support for Prabowo amounts to 62 percent. Conversely, Ganjar only manages to secure a victory in a simulated battle against Anies, achieving an electability of 59.9 percent.
However, in closed-ended questions involving 10, five and three candidates, Prabowo consistently falls behind Ganjar.
The evaluation results called for greater mobilization of Gerindra members who actively engaged with the public.
Member of the Board of Trustees of the Gerindra Party, Andre Rosiade, has revealed the surge in Prabowo's electability can be attributed to strategic measures implemented by the party. He disclosed in November 2022, Gerindra conducted a comprehensive evaluation that emphasized the need to optimize the party's machinery. "The evaluation results called for greater mobilization of Gerindra members who actively engaged with the public, highlighting the significance of Bapak Prabowo's candidacy," he stated during a conversation from Jakarta on Tuesday (23/05/2023).
Furthermore, Gerindra members were required to maintain an active presence on social media, with a specific focus on disseminating positive news and rectifying any misinformation pertaining to their party chairman. "Additionally, I must be candid and acknowledge starting from late November and December, President Joko [‘Jokowi’] Widodo openly endorsed Bapak Prabowo," added Andre.
BPMI SEKRETARIAT PRESIDEN/ LAILY RACHEV
President Joko Widodo with Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo while observing the rice harvest and having dialogue with farmers in Lajer Village, Ambal District, Kebumen Regency, Central Java Province, Thursday (9/3/2023).
There is still time
I perceive this as motivation to work harder, engage with everyone and compete based on our track record, ideas and accomplishments.
Despite being overtaken by Prabowo, Ganjar acknowledges he does not view it as a problem. His rationale is Prabowo is a more experienced figure in the presidential contest.
However, in the period leading up to the election, the situation remains dynamic. Ganjar believes there are external factors that can change the situation. "There will be catalysts that can reverse the situation. Some surveys conducted outside of Kompas indicated a decline in Ganjar's electability in the past, but now it has rebounded significantly and turned around," he stated.
As for Anies, the survey results serve as a motivation to work harder. With approximately nine months remaining until voting day, there is still ample time to persuade the voters. He also expresses familiarity with survey results consistently placing him in third position. "I perceive this as motivation to work harder, engage with everyone and compete based on our track record, ideas and accomplishments," Anies remarked.
Crucial determining factors
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) politics and social change head Arya Fernandes, predicts a 2024 presidential election will be fiercely contested if Anies, Ganjar and Prabowo participate. The survey results indicate no candidate has dominant electability. The marginal difference in their popularity suggests any of them can still overcome another. With these circumstances, it is highly likely the presidential election will require two rounds.
In the context of this fierce competition, Fernandes believes the candidates must also optimize their choice for the vice-presidential candidate. The position of the vice-presidential candidate is crucial as it plays a role in boosting electability or ensuring the preservation of the candidate's votes. Therefore, the selection of the right vice-presidential candidate is highly important.
Referring to the latest survey conducted by Kompas, there are 12 figures who are considered suitable vice-presidential candidates by the public. The difference in electability among these figures is not significant. The two figures with the highest electability are the Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (11.9 percent) and the Governor of West Java Ridwan Kamil (9.3 percent). They were also chosen by a larger number of respondents as suitable figures to accompany Ganjar and Anies. Regarding Prabowo, Ganjar is considered the most suitable candidate to accompany him, followed by Sandiaga and Kamil.
In addition to the importance of selecting the vice-presidential candidate, Arya further emphasizes the candidate's proposed programs were crucial factors that could influence public choice. These proposed programs should be relevant and capable of addressing current issues such as global economics, geopolitics, health, democracy and anticorruption efforts. The competition of ideas is crucial due to the significant number of young and discerning voters in the 2024 Election.
This article was translated by Tenggara Strategics.
