Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised the risk of a nuclear war. This risk has increased in recent times. All parties have been urged to hold back.
By
BONIFASIUS JOSIE SUSILO HARDIANTO
·4 minutes read
RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY PRESS SERVICE VIA AP
In this handout photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022, a Russian warship launches a cruise missile at a target in Ukraine.
NEW YORK, SUNDAY – Concern amongst the international community is mounting as the threat of using nuclear weapons increases. This was triggered by Russia’s move to station its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The United States and its Western allies, even China, slammed Russia’s move on Saturday (1/4/2023).
“This is a blow to the architecture of arms control, strategic stability in Europe and international peace and security,” said France’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Nicolas de Riviere.
“Let us be clear, no country has raised the prospect of using nuclear [weapons] in this conflict. Nothing is threatening Russian sovereignty,” said United Kingdom deputy permanent representative to the UN, James Karikuki.
On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would station its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Russia will begin training of personnel on April 3 and complete construction of a tactical nuclear storage facility in Belarus by July 1. Russia also helped modernize 10 Belarusian warplanes to be capable of firing nuclear weapons.
There were at least two reasons that prompted Putin to take these measures. First, Britain decided to provide Ukraine with steel-piercing bullets containing depleted uranium. According to Putin, these shells pose further danger to civilians and can pollute the environment.
The second reason concerns the balance of power. According to Moscow, the US has stationed nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey in recent decades. Putin believes that Russia’s move did not violate international agreements that prohibit the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Moscow argued that Washington had violated the pact by placing nuclear weapons in NATO territory.
Every day, as the West supplies weapons to Ukraine, it brings the nuclear apocalypse closer and closer.
Additionally, stationing tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus will also allow Russia to expand its capabilities to target several NATO members in eastern and central Europe. Some argue that Moscow might use tactical nukes if Kyiv retakes the territory currently occupied by Russia.
Russia’s Security Council deputy head Dmitry Medvedev said attempts to regain control of the Crimean Peninsula was a threat to Russia’s existence. This threat, in Russian doctrine, can be responded with nukes. “Every day, as the West supplies weapons to Ukraine, it brings the nuclear apocalypse closer and closer,” said Medvedev.
AP PHOTO/GARY FIELDS
In this handout photo taken on October 22, 2022, one of the air-to-air missiles named The Douglas Genie is currently housed in the Air Force Museum in Dover, Delaware, United States of America. Although relatively small, missiles in the 1960s were capable of carrying a nuclear warhead weighing 1.5 kilotons, having an explosive power equivalent to 1000 TNT bombs.
It is this sort of development that many fear the increasing risk of using tactical nuclear weapons. In a debate at the UN Security Council, China demanded that all countries in possession of nuclear weapons refrain from deploying them overseas.
“We call for the abolition of nuclear-sharing arrangements and advocate for no overseas deployment of nuclear weapons by all countries that own nuclear weapons, as well as the withdrawal of nuclear weapons stationed overseas,” said Geng Shuang, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN.
The UN representative for disarmament, Izumi Nakamitsu, called on all countries to avoid any actions that could trigger escalation, mistakes or miscalculations.
Tactical nuclear
Unlike strategic nuclear weapons, which have massive destructive power, tactical nuclear weapons are smaller and have a range of less than 500 kilometers. Even though it has a strength of up to 100 kilotons, its destructive power is relatively limited.
The US suspects that Russia currently owns about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons. Russia’s two newest missiles capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads are Iskander and Kalibr. Meanwhile, the US is estimated to have about 230 tactical nuclear weapons.
As quoted by Eurasianet, Cynthia Roberts, a professor at Hunter College in New York and an international security expert, said Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has brought “the prospect of nuclear war back into the realm of possibility.”
Charles Glaser, a professor at the George Washington University, said various scenarios could result in the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. According to Glaser, if Putin feels that Russia has suffered a major setback, such as the loss of Crimea, he may be tempted to use tactical nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip to force a peace settlement aimed to avert disaster.
Nonetheless, the situation remains very dangerous. Tactical nuclear use can trigger strategic nuclear use.
In a simulation studied by the Princeton University Global Science and Security Program in 2019, known as “Plan A,” it was stated that if a nuclear war broke out in Europe, starting with the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as many as 34.1 million people could die within the first hour after the first bomb is dropped.
“The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the US and Russia abandoned the nuclear arms control treaty, began development of a nuclear weapon type and expanded the circumstances in which they can use nuclear weapons,” the Princeton researchers wrote on their official website. (AP/AFP/REUTERS)
