Anticipating Surge of Traffic During ‘Mudik’

An advertisement in the Batavia Centrum newspaper, on 2 December 1937, reads: Hari Raja Aidilfitri, Setahoen Sekali Moesti Perloekan Tengok Familie. Itoe Soeatoe Kewadjiban! Goenakanlah Kereta Api SS. Sentausa, Senang, dan Moerah!(Idul Fitri Holiday, It’s Once a Year, We Need to Visit Our Family. It’s an Obligation! Get on the SS Trains. Comfortable, Happy and Inexpensive!).

The mudik (homebound) tradition has grown and developed since the Dutch East Indies colonial era. The growth of this tradition was supported by the development of rail-based mass transportation, especially in Java, pioneered by the NISM (Nederlansch Indiche Spoorweg Maatschapij) and SS (Staatspoorwegen) railroad, after the First Industrial Revolution in Europe.This year, the holiday of Idul Fitri comes earlier than last year, namely in April 2023. The preparation time is noticeably less, while the number of homebound travelers is certain to increase.

The travel costs for this year's Idul Fitri mudik are certain to be higher than last year's.

The potential for colossal mobility increases and the "demand" for mudik this year is driven by two factors. First, the imposition of restrictions on community activities (PPKM) has been lifted since the end of 2022; travel requirements are approaching those in normal times. Second, the economy has started to recover since 2022; the coffers of workers, both formal and informal, have begun to be replenished. People's purchasing power is thereby strengthened, increasing the number of potential travelers.

However, the travel costs for this year's Idul Fitri mudik are certain to be higher than last year's. The prices for Pertalite gasoline, diesel and Pertamax gasoline have gone up since September 2022. This means anyone using private or public vehicles that use petrol is faced with rising travel costs or fares.

Explosion in number of travelers

Even though travel costs have risen, the public's enthusiasm for mudik is increasingly unstoppable. The results of a survey by the Transportation Policy Agency (BKT) of the Transportation Ministry show out of a sample of 69,511 respondents, 45.8 percent of Indonesia's population will be going home this year, up 31.6 percent from last year. Based on these parameters, BKT predicts the number of potential travelers this year will reach 123.8 million people.

The Jabodetabek (Greater Jakarta) mega-urban area as the center of urbanites will continue to be the center of mudik and a national barometer for smooth mudik traffic this year. The greatest mobilization of vehicles and people comes from this area, and is expected to book a record high compared to previous years. This year, 18.3 million people or 54.31 percent of the Jabodetabek population will return home. This figure is higher than in 2022 (42 percent) and before the 2019 pandemic (44.1 percent).

The most popular destinations for Jabodetabek travelers are Central Java (34.19 percent), followed by West Java (31.01 percent) and East Java (9.87 percent). Other destinations include Yogyakarta (5.98 percent), Banten (4.61 percent), Lampung (3.09 percent) and South Sumatra (1.53 percent).

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Modes of transportation include private cars (24.11 percent), buses (22.65 percent), trains (17.65 percent), motorbikes (12.45 percent), rental cars (6.32 percent) and airplanes (5.5 percent).

The preferred homebound route for Jabodetabek travelers with private cars is still the Trans Java Toll Road (JTTJ). The potential for travellers going by private car amounts to 4.41 million people. If an average private car icarries three to four passengers, then 1.1 million-1.47 million private cars will leave Jabodetabek during the 2023 Idul Fitri mudik season. This figure does not include rental cars, buses, taxis, travel vehicles and others, as well as non-mudik traffic.

Notes from the success of the 2022 Idul Fitri mudik season, the number of cars leaving Jabodetabek during the Idul Fitri season period 22 April-2 May 2022 (H-10 to H-0) amounted to 1.92 million vehicles (cars) passing the toll road and as many as 1.9 million pass through non-toll routes.

Meanwhile, the amount of traffic passing through non-toll roads in 2019 during the same period (D-10 to D-0) was 2.2 million, and around 2 million on toll roads. In the D-7 to H-1 2019 homebound trip period, the volume of traffic passing through JTTJ was recorded at 1,216,859.

Thus, the likelihood that traffic will break the 2 million mark, both on the toll road and non-toll roads that exit Jabodetabek in the H-10 to D-0 period in 2023, is quite large.

On the air route, more than 900,000 travelers from Jabodetabek are expected to travel by plane. This figure is more or less the same as the number of airplane passengers departing from Soekarno-Hatta Airport during the H-7 to D-1 period of the 2019 Idul Fitri mudik season, or before the pandemic. For the record, 2019 was an era of expensive airfare plus paid baggage, so the number of air travelers at that time was lower than in previous years.

It is possible the number of air passengers from Jabodetabek during the D-7 to D-1 period of the 2023 Idul Fitri season will exceed 1 million, which is quite a large number. This is because apart from travelers, there are also international passengers and non-travelers. This needs to be anticipated by using wide-body aircraft at Soekarno-Hatta or Halim Perdanakusuma.

Better connectivity

It is hoped this year's Lebaran mudik season will be even better than in 2022. In terms of infrastructure, including JTTJ, the favorite route, in addition to connecting all backbone sections from Jakarta/Merak to Probolinggo, there have also been many new non-backbone sections, which can be operational/functional during homebound trips.

For the record, JTTJ's final segment, namely Probolinggo-Banyuwangi, 175 kilometers long, has only been partially completed. The new sections that become JTTJ's "fins" are relatively short, but are vital to improve connectivity and support the smooth flow of traffic during mudik.

On the Cisumdawu Toll Road, for example, sections 6A and 6B (Ujung Jaya-Dawuan) are 5.1 km, sections 4A and 4B (Cimalaka-Legok) are 8.2 km and sections 5A and 5B (Legok-Ujung Jaya) are 14.9 km. Likewise in the Greater Jakarta area, including the South Jakarta-Cikampek II Toll Road, the Kutanegara-Sadang segment is 8.5 km, the Serpong-Cinere Toll Road section 2 (Pamulang-Cinere) is 3.64 km, the Cibitung-Cilincing Toll Road section 4 (Taruma Jaya-Cilincing) is 7.29 km and Serpong-Balaraja Toll Road section 1B (CBD-Legok) is 5.4 km.

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JTTJ in East Java will also have functional new sections during the 2023 Lebaran mudik season, such as the Pasuruan-Probolinggo segment section 4A (East Probolinggo-Gending), which measures 8.55 km. The Ciawi toll gate, Jagorawi Toll Road, has been connected with the Ciawi-Sukabumi Toll Road and will operate section 2 (Cigombong-Cibadak) for 11.9 km. Before this toll road existed, the Ciawi-Sukabumi route was known to be prone to severe traffic jams. Apart from that, there are still many other new sections connected to the JTTJ backbone line, including in the Greater Jakarta area.

For the Trans Sumatra Toll Road (JTTS), until this year's Idul Fitri, there is still the last unfinished segment to connect all backbone routes from Lampung to Special Region of Aceh. This last segment will connect the Betung (South Sumatra)-Jambi-Rengat (Riau)-Pekanbaru sections. However, the existence of JTTS, both in northern Sumatra and southern Sumatra, has provided great benefits from socioeconomic aspects, including tourism, the smooth flow of Lebaran mudik traffic and logistical efficiency.

Apart from toll roads, the readiness and stability of non-toll arterial roads, such as the northern coast route, the pansela (south coast) route and the Sumatran crossroads need to be ensured. The large potential for motorized travelers needs to be anticipated with more health posts and rest areas, especially along the West Java coast route where the density will be very high due to the Idul Fitri mudik.

The large potential for motorized travelers needs to be anticipated with more health posts and rest areas.

In order to reduce the potential for accidents, the free homebound program needs to be improved, including one that also transports motorbikes for travelers. This free homebound program needs to involve all parties, including the government, BUMN and private corporations. The Transportation Ministry, for example, has prepared free transportation for these motorbike travelers.

This free homebound program uses trains, buses and ships.

The Pantura non-toll road will again be filled with hundreds of thousands of motorcycle travelers. The potential for motorized travelers from Jabodetabek is estimated at 12.34 percent, or 2.28 million people. If each motorbike carries two people, then, without any intervention policy, as many as 1.14 million motorbikes will crowd the arterial routes, especially the north coast.

De-bottlenecking

One of the most critical points as a bottleneck on the homebound route is Merak Harbor to Bakauheni.

In the 2022 mudik season, there will be severe traffic jams along the 20 km from the Merak Port entrance to the Tangerang Km 90 toll road. Therefore, alternative routes are being prepared, namely Ciwandan (Banten)-Panjang Port (Bandar Lampung), Indah Kiat Port (Banten)-Panjang, Bojannegara Port-Bandar Bakau Jaya and possibly Tanjung Priok-Panjang, accompanied by the addition of ferries, as an effective traffic de-bottlenecking strategy to reduce the burden on Merak Port and its "sister", Bakauheni Port, during the Idul Fitri 2023 mudik season.

Meanwhile on toll roads, the blockage points will mainly occur on the Cikampek Toll Road (especially Main GT) and Cipali Toll Road. The potential for traffic build-up on these toll roads, like in previous years, will be managed by traffic rearrangement. With this, it is expected the road capacity (V/C ratio) on the Cipali Toll Road will be 0.6.

In addition, to reduce the potential for traffic build-up, both on toll roads and non-toll roads, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo approved a proposal to add two days of collective leave from the SKB 3 Joint Ministerial Decree from April 21-25 to April 19-25, so travelers will have a longer window of time to go home in, starting April 18 in the afternoon until April 21, and returning on April 26. Some travelers are advised to return on April 30.

There are still other issues that need to be highlighted for the 2023 mudik season. These issues are travelers with electric vehicles (EVs), inflation and control of pre-endemic COVID-19. Travelers using electric vehicles need prepared charging stations at various strategic locations, and awareness of the existence of these charging stations must be raised. If possible, a mobile charging station can be an alternative. As an incentive, because the number is relatively small, homebound travelers' EVs (pure, not hybrid) may be exempt from toll fees during the Lebaran mudik season.

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Increases in public transportation fares, such as airplane, train and AKAP/AKDP bus tickets, during the mudik season, need to be controlled by the participation of all relevant parties so as not to contribute significantly to inflation in April/May 2023. This is to support the national inflation target, a maximum of 4 percent this year.

For the record, during the 2019 Lebaran mudik season, monthly inflation was recorded at 0.68 percent (May) and 0.55 percent (June), which was mainly due to increased consumption during the month of Ramadan and transportation tariffs. The annual inflation rate in 2019 was only 2.72 percent. Meanwhile in 2022 the inflation rate shot up to 5.51 percent due to the increase in fuel prices in September 2022 and increases in transportation fares, both during the 2022 Idul Fitri mudik season and after the increase in fuel prices.

To maintain the pre-pandemic situation, travelers need to complete booster vaccines before going home. As a precautionary measure, at strategic points, such as main toll road rest areas and control posts on non-toll arterial roads, it is necessary to provide places for booster vaccinations.

All tourist spots along the mudik routes have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of travelers, replete with much better facilities/infrastructure. Borobudur, Prambanan, Malioboro, Lake Toba and others are now more and more enchantingly beautiful. Moreover, there exist tourist areas with impressive uniqueness, such as the Dieng Plateau, which has begun to offer a rare view of Dieng-style "snow" (frost) in the morning, when the cold temperatures reach their peak in June/July.

We hope the 2023 mudik season will be successful, safe, comfortable and sustainable with a low number of traffic accidents, smooth traffic, controlled inflation rate, "greener" and maintained pre-endemic situation. Networks of social relations and trust that may have weakened during the pandemic can be nurtured and strengthened again through friendship, starting at the level of family and relatives and expanding outward to the community. Accelerating economic recovery requires social capital in the spirit of Indonesia Incorporated.

FEB UGM

Wihana Kirana Jaya

Wihana Kirana Jaya, Special staff of the transportation minister

This article was translated by Kurnia Siswo.