The restored ties between Saudi and Iran could not only alter the geopolitical security map in the Middle East, but could also stop conflicts in a number of countries. However, the US and Israel will not remain silent.
By
Musthafa Abd Rahman from Cairo, Egypt
·5 minutes read
AP/XINHUA/LUO XIAOGUANG
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, at right, shakes hands with Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, at left, as Wang Yi, China's most senior diplomat, looks on, at center, for a photo during a closed meeting held in Beijing, Saturday, March 11, 2023. Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed Friday to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after seven years of tensions. The major diplomatic breakthrough negotiated with China lowers the chance of armed conflict between the Mideast rivals, both directly and in proxy conflicts around the region.
The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was brokered by China and announced in Beijing on Friday (10/3/2023), has been the most surprising development in the Middle East in the first quarter of 2023. It was certainly an unexpected development in the region.
The restoration of ties between the two countries has been deemed to be on a par with other major events in the Middle East in recent decades, such as the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel in 1979, the Oslo Accords between Palestine and Israel in 1993, the Arab Spring of 2010-2022 and Saudi Vision 2030.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been tense since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The leader of the Iranian Revolution, Imam Khomeini, often talked about exporting the Islamic revolution. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, as an absolute monarchy, had been cautious about Iran following the 1979 revolution.
Tensions between the two countries peaked in January 2016, when Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic relations with Iran following the mass attacks on the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran and the Saudi Arabian consulate in Mashhad by Iranian people, who were protesting Saudi Arabia’s move to execute a Shiite figure, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, in that country.
Thanks to China’s mediation, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties by resuming operation of the Saudi embassy and consular offices within the next two months. Saudi Arabia and Iran even agreed to revive the security pact between the two countries signed in 2001, as well as agreements on economic, investment, cultural, sports, youth and technology cooperation made in 1998.
Saudi Arabia and Iran even agreed to revive the security pact between the two countries signed in 2001.
This reconciliation hosted in Beijing is surprising because Saudi Arabia and Iran have thus far been rivals, adhering to a foreign policy of enmity, whether through military, intelligence or political means in places like Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and even as far as Africa.
The Saudi-Iran rivalry also extended to their internal affairs. Saudi Arabia frequently accused Iran of being complicit in supporting and funding the Shiite opposition based in eastern Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Iran accused Saudi Arabia of supporting and funding the Sunni opposition in Iran, particularly in the city of Ahvaz, Khuzestan province.
Gulf security
Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablishing diplomatic ties will significantly change the geopolitical and security map in the Middle East, both current and future. This will include Iran’s aspiration for countries in the Persian Gulf to control the region’s security. Iran’s security concept aims to reduce the role and presence of foreign forces in the Persian Gulf, especially the US military.
Iran has been most exasperated by Western military presence, especially from the US, in the Persian Gulf (see infographic).
However, Iran’s security concept still needs the approval of Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia agrees, other smaller Arab Gulf states will also agree, marking a significant change in the map of the Middle East.
AFP/ATTA KENARE
Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023. - Riyadh and Tehran announced on March 10 that after seven years of severed ties they would reopen embassies and missions within two months and implement security and economic cooperation agreements signed more than 20 years ago.
If Iran’s security concept is realized, tensions in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf will dissipate, which is understandable, given that Saudi-Iran tensions have been the biggest contributor to unrest in the Middle East in the last few decades.
Consequently, the US will no longer have a role in the Persian Gulf. US military bases in the region were established over the last three decades since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990, to ward off the threat of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq and from Iran’s Mullah regime.
Saddam Hussein’s regime fell in 2003. However, Arab states in the Persian Gulf still fear the threat of Iran, which is why US bases are still in the region to this day. However, the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran will eliminate this fear. It would be even more surprising if Iran’s security concept in the Persian Gulf is realized.
Of course, it won’t be easy, as the US and Israel oppose Iran’s security concept in the Persian Gulf. This is why it will be tough on Saudi Arabia, which must maintain good relations with the US. The challenge that Saudi Arabia faces is to play nice on all fronts: the US, China and Iran.
End of conflict
The Saudi-Iran reconciliation is also expected to help end the civil war in Yemen and reduce political tensions in Lebanon and Iraq. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting a direct war in Yemen since 2015. It is hoped that the Iran-aligned Houthi group, which controls the capital Sana’a, will reconcile with other groups to end the civil war.
It is possible that Saudi Arabia is willing to mend ties with Iran to end the war in Yemen, which has been exhausting and costly for the country. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants his country to focus on implementing the Saudi Vision 2030, which requires a huge budget.
It is hoped that the Saudi-Iran reconciliation will also help defuse political tensions in Lebanon. It is known that Saudi Arabia supports the Sunni camp in Lebanon, while Iran supports the Shiite camp.
The reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is geostrategically detrimental to Israel.
Even in Iraq, the relationship between the Shia majority and the Sunni minority could improve and even develop cooperation following the Saudi-Iran reconciliation. The majority of Shia political forces in Iraq are Iranian loyalists, while the Sunnis are loyalists to Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.
On the flipside, the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is geostrategically detrimental to Israel. Israel’s geopolitical and security policy, which relies on forming an Israeli-Arab alliance to fight and isolate Iran, will fail in the face of the Saudi-Iran reconciliation. In fact, the strategic value of the Abraham Accord in 2020, established with US mediation, has taken a nosedive after Saudi Arabia and Iran mended their ties.
