The Earth and Its 8 Billion Inhabitants
World-population growth is actually under control. However, due to very-rapid population growth before 1960, a population-growth momentum was created in the long term.
The United Nations projected that on 15 November 2022, the world's population would amount to 8 billion people.
It took only 12 years (2010-2022) to increase by 1 billion people. Over the past 12 years, the world's population has increased by almost 3 people per second, more than 228,000 people per minute and 83 million people per year. In the past, it took 123 years (1804-1927) for the population to increase from 1 billion to 2 billion.
However, in the last 60 years, the 1-billion population-change increment has been achieved in an increasingly short time. The world's population has continued to increase to 3 billion (1960), 4 billion (1974), 5 billion (1987), 6 billion (1998), 7 billion (2010) and 8 billion (2022). In 95 years, the world's population has grown from 2 billion to 8 billion!
After 1960, the world population growth rate (LPP) tended to decline. In fact, the world's LPP is currently the lowest since 1950. The UN revealed that two-thirds of the world's population live in countries with a total birth rate of under 2.1 babies per woman.
World-population growth is actually under control. However, due to very-rapid population growth before 1960, a population-growth momentum was created in the long term. A large population will result in a large birth rate. At the same time, mortality rates are falling and life expectancy is rising, causing a large increase in the world's population.
In fact, physically, the Earth never gets bigger.
This population-growth momentum creates population pressure on the Earth, giving rise to various global challenges. The population's need for food, clothing, shelter, clean water, land and energy is increasing rapidly. In fact, physically, the Earth never gets bigger.
Also read:
> Global Population Amounts to 8 Billion
> Indigenous People Have Not Been Recognized
Population numbers and behavior contribute to the increase in Earth's temperature, creating climate change. In addition, waste as a residue of population consumption continues to swell. The World Bank (2018) estimates that the waste per-capita of the global population amounts to 0.74 kilograms per day, varying from 0.11 to 4.54 kg per day. With a population of 8 billion people, the world produces almost 6 million tonnes of waste per day, equivalent to 2.16 billion tonnes per year.
Population pressure and climate change
There are at least three direct impacts of population pressure on human life in the future. First, the impact on the environment. In 2010, when the world's population reached 7 billion, the BBC made the documentary How Many People Can Live on Planet Earth? to show how big the implications of population growth are on the environment.
Competition in obtaining resources has the potential to create conflict and threaten world peace. Massive use of natural resources (SDA) to fulfill human needs accelerates environmental damage. Climate change is a real consequence of population pressure.
Second, environmental damage and climate change due to population pressure also threaten public health.
Experts warn that increasing Earth's temperature and environmental damage are forcing some wild animals to migrate to their homes. Human interaction with wild animals increases, poses a risk of virus transmission and has the potential to create a pandemic.
Floods pose a risk of spreading waterborne diseases, such as cholera and hepatitis. Decreased air quality increases the risk of lung and respiratory-tract infections. The Lancet (2022) in one of its articles explains that an increase in Earth's temperature is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and heatstroke.
The decline in food production will trigger inflation due to increasing food prices.
Third, climate change as a consequence of population pressure threatens world-food security. Increasingly frequent extreme-weather events, including floods and droughts, have a negative impact on food production. The Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future warns of the potential decline in food production in some areas due to climate change. The decline in food production will trigger inflation due to increasing food prices. Poverty and hunger are challenges amid the world's efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Thomas Robert Malthus (1798), an English economist, political and demographer, in his book An Essay on the Principle of Population predicted that the world would experience a food problem as the population grew geometrically and food grew arithmetically.
Malthus' concerns were not fully proven because the industrial revolution and technological advances were able to encourage an increase in food production. However, Malthus' thoughts, written when the world had a population of 800 million people, are still principally relevant -- the principle that the world has physical limitations to accommodate a rapidly growing population.
Indonesia's Role
Climate change is inextricable with the rapid increase in the world's population. The United Nations Climate Change Convention (UNFCC) produced in New York, the United States, and signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992, became a global effort to respond to climate change and save the Earth.
As a follow-up, since 1995, the first conference of the parties (COP) was held in Berlin, until COP27, which took place in Egypt in November. Various global and Indonesian agreements were produced, including by the ratifying countries. As the 4th-most populous country and the 15th-largest area in the world, Indonesia clearly plays an important role in controlling the rate of population growth and climate change.
In terms of population control, Indonesia continues to perform well via the Family Planning program. But, in fact, Indonesia's population-growth rate is still above the world’s. In fact, Indonesia Statistics (BPS) projects that the total fertility rate (total birth rate) in Indonesia in 2020 to 2045 will already be low, stagnating at 2.1 babies per woman (reaching the replacement level).
In 2020, the world's population-growth rate is below 1 percent, while Indonesia's is at 1.25 percent (2010-2020 average). Therefore, the issue of controlling the population size is still relevant for Indonesia, although it must avoid “too low” birth rate.
The electric-vehicle ecosystem continues to be developed, including concrete steps in using electric cars at the Group of 20 Bali Summit.
In its commitment to achieving world net-zero carbon emissions, Indonesia has managed to significantly reduce the rate of deforestation, from 0.93 million hectares (ha) (2016) to 0.20 million ha (2021), the lowest in the last 20 years. Indonesia has also restored more than 3 million ha of critical land and rehabilitated 600,000 mangrove forests by 2024. Indonesia's commitment is also realized through the transformation of new and renewable energy. The electric-vehicle ecosystem continues to be developed, including concrete steps in using electric cars at the Group of 20 Bali Summit.
However, in the midst of fulfilling global commitments, we must also be able to respond to domestic challenges. Population pressure creates pressure on national-food production.
Indonesia Statistics data (2022) show that during 2018-2021, the area of our harvested rice field has fallen sharply, from 11.38 million ha to 10.41 million ha. The causes are, among others, conversion of permanent rice fields for non-agricultural purposes, temporary land conversion and the impact of wet drought or flooding (climate change). At the same time, national-rice consumption increased from 29.56 million tonnes (2018) to 30.04 million tonnes (2021) as a consequence of the increase in population.
Crossing the 8-billion world-population mark serves as a reminder of the importance of understanding population situation, its impact and appropriate policy responses.
Population numbers are not just numbers, but souls who deserve a better tomorrow than today.
Sonny Harry B Harmadi.
Sonny Harry B Harmadi, General chairperson of the Indonesian Population Coalition/teacher at Development Study Department FDKBD ITS.
(This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo).
