Looking into "Kompas" Pre-election Survey
A nomination by party or coalition of parties for candidates with low electability would mean political suicide. The 2024 elections is a historic, crucial moment in the journey of the Republic.
Given the results of the recent survey by Kompas Research and Development this month on "National Leadership, Political Party Electability and Presidential Candidate Electability for the 2024 General Elections," political party leaders must build insight into why their party's electability has decreased or increased.
Likewise, they also know which prospective figures deserve to be nominated as presidential and vice presidential candidates and with which parties they should go to for a coalition.
While still among the most popular parties along with Gerindra Party and the Democrat Party, as the survey showed, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), at 21.1 percent, experienced a 1.7 percent decrease in electability compared to the June survey. The party's reservation from announcing its presidential running mates may have a negative impact on its electability.
Giving sanctions to law infringement-embroiled cadres is the right step to maintain the party's integrity, despite being held back, which makes it difficult for the party's best cadres ready to fight in the 2024 elections. The PDI-P must prepare itself to become a more progressive and inclusive party in the post-Megawati Soekarnoputri era, which remains attractive to the old and young, the upper and lower societies, the high and low educated, as well as rural and urban communities.
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Golkar, which used to be the ruling and dominant party during the New Order era but was later relegated to second position in 1999 behind the PDI-P in the first reform-era election before regaining the top position in 2004, is now in fourth position on the survey at 7.9 percent. Golkar must transform itself from the political style of the New Order. It no longer has a board of trustees that saw Jenderal Besar (supreme general) Soeharto’s uncontended power.
Division into A (for ABRI, the old abbreviation of national military), B (Bureaucracy) and G (Golkar) is no longer in place in the party’s political career pathway. There is no longer the administering of the military’s social work program and employee corps in the Home Ministry. There are no more briefings in the offices of ministries and government institutions ahead of an election, which the New Order government used to do to mobilize ASN (state civil employees, previously PNS) to vote for Golkar.
Golkar's lynchpin organizations, such as Kosgoro, Soksi and the MKGR, are almost idle. They have failed to produce new cadres that would be energetic, smart and capable of driving the party. It is no wonder that those who are now occupying important positions in Golkar are still the older generation of the New Order regime.
Why was the electability rate of the Democrat Party, which is at 14 percent, almost twice that of the Golkar Party? It might be due to Democrats’ more committed work to tap on grassroots compared to Golkar and a reliance on a new and young leader who makes political statements in contention to national leadership, even though the issues raised at times appeared to be a miscued shot.
Why did the United Development Party (PPP) look to bleed further with its more mediocre 1.7 percent electability, compared to other Islam-based parties, such as the Nation Awakening Party (PKB) wirh 6.3 percent and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) with 5.6 percent? Has the party’s slogan "Kaaba as the Common House of Muslims'' failed to woo voters? Or have PPP voters defected to other Islam-based parties, such as the PKB, the PKS and the National Mandate Party (PAN)? Or is the PPP still being plagued by internal conflicts it has faced since the New Order until the Reformation era?
Why did the Nasdem Party, who had announced Anies Baswedan as a prospective candidate since early October, have its electability rate trickling up only by 0.2 percent to 4.3 percent from June’s survey?
Coalition and presidential contest
Delving into the results of the Kompas survey this month and following the daily’s news headlines in the 22-26 October editions, we can also see which coalitions will be formed and which presidential and vice presidential candidates will be nominated.
While remaining unperturbed in the art of political silence regarding party coalition and the presidential nomination for the 2024 General Election, it is inevitable for the PDI-P to lobby other parties or alliance of parties to form a coalition. Ceteris paribus, the PDI-P will be going for a coalition with Golkar, the PPP and PAN, having built an alliance called the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB).
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> Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies Remain in the Top Three
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Delivering his speech during Golkar's 58th Anniversary, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo stated that Golkar, which has joined an alliance with the PPP and PAN, might need time, as a sign of prudence, mindfulness and cautiousness before determining the candidates for president and vice president. However, he warned against taking too long to choose appropriate figures as candidates for the state’s “pilot.” His statement showed his high hopes for the KIB.
West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil’s statement that he had been approached by the Golkar party was affirmed by the party’s chairman, saying that Ridwan’s true color was yellow despite him wearing a batik shirt. It sent out a message that this coalition was most likely to go for Ganjar Pranowo and Ridwan Kamil as its presidential and vice presidential candidates.
The PDI-P would be appropriate to opt for a coalition with the KIB because this alliance does not yet have a fixed running mate. The coalition between the PDI-P and the KIB would see the former as the frontrunner.
Ganjar Pranowo and Ridwan Kamil will make very ideal running mates. Ganjar is popular among male voters, while many female voters have started to turn to Ridwan Kamil. From a regional perspective, Ganjar is excelling especially in Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali and East Nusa Tenggara.
In the Maluku-Papua electoral cluster, Ganjar has also built popularity to match Prabowo, especially in West Papua. He has won affinity among voters across generations, regions, parties, socioeconomic communities, as well as educational backgrounds from elementary school to higher education (Kompas, 26/10/2022, page 15). With his irrefutable social attachment to West Java residents, Ridwan Kamil has also gained support from residents in rural areas.
The Nasdem Party, the PKS, and the Democrats are preparing to build a coalition and announce their presidential and vice presidential candidates on Nov. 10. This coalition is most likely to be Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, with the Democrats being the largest party in the coalition.
A nomination by party or coalition of parties for candidates with low electability would mean political suicide.
Political discourses have also mentioned National Military (TNI) chief Andika Perkasa as an option as a vice presidential candidate. Unfortunately, both Agus and Andika’s electability is slightly over 2 percent. Anies has been prominent in the Maluku-Papua electoral cluster, particularly in North Maluku, in addition Jakarta, Aceh, East Kalimantan and Southeast Sulawesi. He is beginning to rival Prabowo’s popularity in West Sumatra.
The Gerindra and PKB coalition is most likely to pair Prabowo with Muhaimin Iskandar as a vice presidential candidate. Besides his popularity in West Sumatra, Prabowo is also generally more preferable in North Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and South Sulawesi as well as Banten. But in West Java, his popularity has been increasingly eroded by Ridwan Kamil. Muhaimin Iskandar certainly is popular in East Java and other areas, which are strongholds of PKB lynchpin Nahdlatul Ulama.
Political suicide
Surveys from other credible polling institutions are awaiting. We need to review the quarterly survey because it will serve as a guide for voters to choose their parties and presidential candidates.
A nomination by party or coalition of parties for candidates with low electability would mean political suicide. The 2024 elections is a historic, crucial moment in the journey of the Republic to herald the leadership of the nation’s new generation ahead of the 100th anniversary of Indonesia.
Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, Political Researcher at Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) (1984-2017) and Indonesian Ambassador to Tunisia (2017-2021)
This article was translated by Musthofid.