Anticipating the Post-Demographic Bonus ‘Sandwich Generation’ Boom
The results of the Kompas Research and Development survey, conducted in August 2022 in all 34 provinces, illustrates the extent of Indonesia’s sandwich generation, which reached 67 percent of the respondents.
The success of population development has positive implications for achieving Indonesia's human development goals.
The marriage age maturity program has improved the level of education and health across the population. The average life expectancy has increased. The Family Planning Program has succeeded in reducing the birth rate as well as the dependency ratio. As a result, Indonesia will experience a demographic bonus from 2012 to 2040.
However, the demographic bonus in Indonesia will be followed by a boom in the sandwich generation. The concept of the sandwich generation was introduced in 1981 to the social work and gerontology fields by Dorothy Miller and Elaine Brody, and refers to a generation of people who carry the double burden of caring for their ageing parents as well as their children.
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Like a sandwich, the sandwich generation is squeezed by the generations above and below it, bearing a huge burden. This can potentially reduce human investments at the household level, including the fulfillment of education, health and nutrition financing. It has long-term impacts on Indonesia's human and economic development.
This survey can be an important reference, considering that Indonesia has no comprehensive data on its sandwich generation.
The results of the Kompas Research and Development survey, conducted in August 2022 in all 34 provinces, illustrates the extent of Indonesia’s sandwich generation, which reached 67 percent of the respondents. The proportion of the working age population in this group is around 56 million people. This survey can be an important reference, considering that Indonesia has no comprehensive data on its sandwich generation.
Two categories
The sandwich generation can be divided into two categories. The first covers members of the sandwich generation who live in the same house with those they care for. The second covers members of the sandwich generation who do not live in the same house with their dependents. According to the available data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the profile explored here is more to do with the sandwich generation living as an extended family in one house. This means that in one house is a nuclear family as well as other relatives, such as grandparents, grandchildren, siblings, children-in-law and other in-laws.
According to the data gathered in the March 2022 National Economic Survey (Susenas), it is estimated that 8.4 million Indonesians belong to the sandwich generation living as an extended family, or the EF sandwich generation. Most live in East Java (23.71 percent), followed by Central Java (19.14 percent), West Java (12.10 percent), Bali (3.99 percent) and then North Sumatra (3.77 percent). More than 61 percent of Indonesia’s EF sandwich generation lives in Java.
By their place of domicile, 51 percent live in urban areas and the rest in rural areas. Almost 17 percent are poor, so the double burden they bear is very heavy. In fact, 58 percent of the EF sandwich generation has a junior high school education or below.
So, which age group dominates the sandwich generation? Nearly 92 percent of the EF sandwich generation was born between 1964 and 1998 (aged 24-58 years). This age range is fairly wide compared to that in developed countries, who are generally in their 30s to 40s. There are more women than men in the EF sandwich generation, at respectively 51.25 percent compared to 48.75 percent. Almost 30 percent of the sandwich generation manages the home full-time.
Even though 70 percent of the EF sandwich generation works, the fact that 30 percent takes care of the household should be a concern for the government. Their double burden is not supported by an adequate income.
Those not in the sandwich generation support 3-4 family members on average. However, this figure reaches 4-5 family members for the EF sandwich generation. In fact, 34.29 percent of the EF sandwich generation supports six or more family members. Ageing parents comprise the largest number of dependents outside the nuclear family (husband, wife and children), followed by other family members, such as siblings, in-laws, and grandchildren.
Indonesian society is generally family-oriented and it is normal to support an extended family. In fact, the additional burden of financially supporting family members clearly has long-term impacts for both the sandwich generation and national development.
First is the low ability to save money. National savings is one of the sources of investment financing. Low savings have implications in the low capacity of national investment financing, creating dependence on foreign investment and hampering economic growth.
This affects productivity and self-development.
Second is the problem of limited time. The EF sandwich generation must allocate its time to a variety of activities, from work to taking care of their children and ageing parents. This affects productivity and self-development.
Third, it hampers human development due to their limited capacity to finance education, health and nutrition. Fourth, it increases psychological pressure and affects mental health.
Post-2040 sandwich generation
According to population projections based on the 2015 Inter-Census Population Survey (Supas), Indonesia is in a demographic bonus from 2012 to 2040. In 2020-2024, Indonesia is at the peak of its demographic bonus and the lowest dependency ratio, the golden period of its demographic bonus. At the same time, however, we still have many members of the sandwich generation with heavy dependency burdens. Currently, more than 93 percent of the sandwich generation is in their productive age.
After the demographic bonus ends, Indonesia will enter the period of an ageing society, where the proportion of the elderly population continues to increase as the proportion of youths decreases. If Indonesia is able to convert its demographic bonus into a welfare bonus, then the end of the demographic bonus will be marked by a high per capita income. The elderly will be able to meet their daily needs from their savings and will be less dependent on intergenerational transfers. The size of the sandwich generation can be reduced.
On the other hand, if Indonesia fails to convert the demographic bonus into a welfare bonus, after 2040 it will see an "explosion" of the sandwich generation. There are at least three reasons for this.
First, higher life expectancy is not accompanied by a proportionate increase in per capita income. The ability to save is low, leaving the elderly to be dependent on the younger generation and giving rise to many new members of the sandwich generation.
Second, the difference between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy will create financial and time burdens for the sandwich generation. The World Health Organization’s data show a difference of 6-8 years between life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in Indonesia. The elderly have a life expectancy of up to 72 years, but a healthy life expectancy of only 64 years. During the last seven years of their lives, elderly people will be ill and need time for care and health financing.
Third, a follow-up impact of the second point is a large number of elderly people who need a nurse (caregiver), but after 2040, the proportion of the younger generation with a high level of education will shrink. The market will not have an adequate supply of caregivers. Children will take on that role and become part of the sandwich generation.
We must optimize the benefits of the current demographic bonus. The challenge is that the global pandemic struck during the peak period of Indonesia’s demographic bonus (2020-2024) and caused a global crisis. However, we still have the chance to recover soon.
We must convert the demographic bonus into a welfare bonus to prevent the "explosion" of the sandwich generation at a time when Indonesia will be marking its 100th independence anniversary in 2045. In order to make this a reality, we must "Recover Faster, Rise Stronger", the theme of the 77th anniversary of the Republic of Indonesia.
Sonny Harry B Harmadi.
Sonny Harry. B Harmadi, Chairman of the Indonesian Population Coalition and a lecturer at the 10th November Institute of Technology’s Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (FDKBD ITS)
(This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo)
