Political Map Still ‘Liquid’ and Open
The party's move to declare the figure of its presidential candidate is seen as a strategy to boost party electability, which in the end also has the potential to provoke other parties to join a coalition.
The NasDem Party's move to declare Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate is believed to prompt other political parties to immediately determine their position. Nevertheless, the final coalition of political parties has yet to materialize in the near future because the political map is still relatively “fluid” and open.
The NasDem Party’s declaration of its presidential candidate is not the first. Previously, the Gerindra Party had also announced its general chairman, Prabowo Subianto, as its presidential candidate for the 2024 Presidential Election. The National Awakening Party (PKB) has introduced its general chairman, Muhaimin Iskandar, its presidential candidate.
Even though they have declared a presidential candidate, each political party is required to find another political party to form a coalition so that each proposed presidential candidate can advance in the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres). This is because Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning the election mandates that only political parties or a combination of political parties that have a minimum of 20 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) or gain 25 percent of the national valid votes can nominate a presidential and vice presidential candidate pair.
The party's move to declare the figure of its presidential candidate is seen as a strategy to boost party electability, which in the end also has the potential to provoke other parties to join a coalition. However, the public still sees that the candidacy opportunities will remain changeable until the time for the registration of the presidential and vice presidential pairs to the General Election Commission (KPU), next year.
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Just look, after the PKB, Gerindra and the NasDem Party, other political parties such as the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) also declared not only a presidential candidate, but also their vice presidential candidate, namely Ganjar Pranowo-Yenny Wahid. Although this political decision has not been supported by the two figures, the PSI move is proof that the declaration of presidential candidates made by the party has begun to warm up the political engine toward the 2024 election.
Then how does the public see the steps taken by political parties that have begun to declare their presidential candidates?
The results of a Kompas poll recorded that the public saw the declaration of Gerindra, the NasDem Party, including the PSI, could be the intersection that will determine the direction of the political coalition for the nomination of president and vice president. The poll, which was held in early October 2022, showed that 41.9 percent of respondents believed that the latest political dynamics regarding the presidential candidates would be followed by other political parties to also declare their presidential candidates.
The potential for joining other political parties to the declared presidential candidate axis does not mean closing the opportunity for other political parties to nominate figures other than Muhaimin, Prabowo and Anies who have been championed by the PKB, Gerindra and the NasDem Party, respectively. This can be seen from the view of other respondents (39.6 percent) who actually believed that there would be other candidates for president outside these names.
Continuity
The possibility of the emergence of another figure was even more visible when the opinion poll was asked regarding to which figure was considered capable of continuing the programs of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo's government whose term of office will end on October 20, 2024. The answers that emerged were not only the names of Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.
Currently, Anies and Prabowo are mentioned by more respondents regarding their beliefs about who is capable of continuing Jokowi’s government program.
It is the same with Prabowo. On a number of occasions, as the defense minister, has often expressed his appreciation for Jokowi's leadership and is committed to continuing what the government has done so far.
In a press conference during the declaration of the presidential candidacy of the NasDem Party, especially when asked about Jokowi’s government programs if he is elected president, Anies answered diplomatically that all will definitely be based on the spirit of sustainability and change.
It is the same with Prabowo. On a number of occasions, as the defense minister, has often expressed his appreciation for Jokowi's leadership and is committed to continuing what the government has done so far.
In addition to Anies and Prabowo, some respondents then answered the figure who would later be nominated by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) who would continue Jokowi’s government program, as many as 13.4 percent of respondents said it was the party that won the election twice in a row without mentioning the figure carried by the party.
Meanwhile, other respondents (4.1 percent) directly mentioned the name of the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo as a figure who was considered capable of continuing development programs as a legacy of the Jokowi government.
The emergence of this aspect of sustainable development not only illustrates that other figures are still open as candidates for president, but it has also become public attention that the transition of leadership will also be followed by the sustainability of programs that have been achieved by the previous government.
Electoral effect
The declaration of presidential candidates by Gerindra and the NasDem Party will at least invite questions of whether there is an electoral effect of this declaration on the level of electability of political parties. The results of the Kompas poll noted that most respondents (49.5 percent) believed that what the NasDem Party did by declaring the Anies as its presidential candidate, for example, was believed to increase the NasDem Party's vote gains in the 2024 election.
The experience of the two elections that the NasDem Party has participated in, the attitude of the NasDem Party's support for presidential candidates, such as the experience in the 2014 and 2019 elections which stated their initial support for Jokowi, proved to provide electoral incentives to the NasDem Party to enter the ranks of the middle board political parties in the configuration of votes and seats from the national political scene.
Of course, with the declaration of Anies' presidential candidate, the NasDem Party also has the same hope to be able to gain the electoral effect of Anies' candidacy. At least this is also inseparable from the electoral potential of Anies as a presidential candidate.
Citing the results of a face-to-face survey by Kompas, for seven measurements, Anies' electability tends to experience an upward trend. Standing in the range of 8.4 percent in October 2019, Anies' electability rate crept up to around 12.6 percent in June 2022. Although his electability rate is still below Prabowo and Ganjar, Anies' potential is still very large in influencing the map of the political party coalition later.
If almost half of the respondents believe that the electoral effect will be obtained by the NasDem Party, some of the other respondents believe the opposite. Almost one-fifth of the respondents saw that the NasDem Party's vote could be eroded by nominating Anies. This respondent’s perception could not be separated from the attitude of a number of NasDem Party cadres who decided to resign from the party after the NasDem Party declared Anies as its presidential candidate.
In the end, the NasDem Party's nomination of Anies led to a discussion of political calculations, which one has a bigger impact on the NasDem Party with its decision to declare Anies as its presidential candidate?
In their 1991 article, Cohen et al found that campaigning or nominating candidates at the start of an election can have a positive impact on candidates. One of the effects of this strategy is the mobilization of prospective voters, especially those who have not yet made a choice or who previously decided to abstain.
More interestingly, this mobilization not only directs voters who are still confused (swing voters), but from other political parties as well.
In this context, the initiatives of the PKB, the NasDem Party and Gerindra to announce their presidential candidate early will have the effect of mobilizing prospective voters. More interestingly, this mobilization not only directs voters who are still confused (swing voters), but from other political parties as well.
At this point, this also further supports the decisions of the PKB, Gerindra and the NasDem Party in determining the choice of their presidential candidates.
However, once again, to be able to nominate the presidential and vice presidential candidates in the next presidential election, there is a threshold for presidential nominations that must be met. The NasDem Party is still exploring whether to form a coalition with the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). The NasDem Party can only nominate presidential and vice presidential candidates if it succeeds in forming a coalition with Democrats and the PKS.
As for Gerindra and the PKB, although they have agreed to form a coalition and the coalition of the two political parties has met the threshold requirements for presidential candidacy, the discussion about who the presidential and vice-presidential candidates will be is not yet final, especially with the PKB still pushing Muhaimin as a presidential candidate, as well as Gerindra and Prabowo, making common ground not easy to reach.
In addition, the PDI-P variable, which is the political party that won the 2019 General Election as well as the owner of a premium ticket for presidential candidacy without having to form a coalition, has not yet taken a stand as to whom the ticket for presidential candidacy from this party will be given. In this situation, the political map has actually begun to stretch, but it is still relatively fluid and open.
(This article was translated by Hendarsyah Tarmizi)