Will Nuclear War Happen?

Russia’s war on Ukraine, which broke out on 24 Feb., has now entered its eighth month.

The war has killed thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians, as well as soldiers on both sides. The exodus of Ukrainian refugees to several neighboring countries since the invasion has reached as many as 6.8 million people, as reported by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

It is the worst humanitarian tragedy since World War II, which put Adolf Hitler on the page of the dark history of human civilization. In the wake of the Ukrainian troops’ fight to move forward and recapture several cities previously controlled by Russian forces, such as Kharkiv, Izzum, and Chernihiv, it does not seem possible to stop Russia’s aim to "temporarily" annex 18 percent of the territories of southern and eastern Ukraine: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zhaparozhia.

At Russian gunpoint, Ukrainians in the occupied regions were forced to vote "yes" to joining the Russian Federation during the unilateral referendum held from 24 to 27 Sept. Russian President Vladimir Putin now claims that the territories are is part of Russia.

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The UN has rejected the referendum. There is no international recognition of the annexed territories because Russia has violated international law in its actions against Ukraine. However, it seems the world id powerless to stop Russia's "brutal" trampling of Ukraine's sovereignty.

The Russian President has lost respect as a humane and civilized leader. Russia has yet to reflect on the reality that it is being isolated from the world. Instead, it is oblivious, walking in blinders.

Russia does not seem to be held back by the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. Putin is alienated from the international community of civilized nations. The Russian President has lost respect as a humane and civilized leader. Russia has yet to reflect on the reality that it is being isolated from the world. Instead, it is oblivious, walking in blinders.

Russia is simply disregarding the global reaction. Putin has even launched a partial mobilization of reservists to join the war. The move has triggered protests in a number of cities, and hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have been leaving to border countries to escape the draft. Some 500,000 Russians have entered Georgia, which is an observer country in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Reactions around the world

The US President, the UN Secretary-General, and the EU President have all issued a strong warning to Russia. NATO countries are on the alert in anticipation of Russia's next gallop in blinders. US and British aircraft carriers, as well as German and Danish warships, are already in the marine territory where Russia’s Nordstream gas pipeline to Europe is located.

Russia's "annexation referendum" in the four regions has fired up Ukraine to advance further to reclaim its sovereignty over occupied territory. Diplomatic pathways to peace are closed. Ukraine is accelerating its process of joining NATO. US aid for Ukraine, in the form of sophisticated military equipment, is estimated at US$100 billion, in addition to weaponry from the United Kingdom and other European countries. Ukraine has been receiving enough ammunition supplies to defend its sovereignty.

These are the five main factors that have prompted Ukraine to throw down the gauntlet to Russia: (1) Ukrainian culture and history has shaped its patriotic character to resist colonialism; (2) Ukraine has sufficient natural and human resources to support its war efforts; (3) the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine, along with the 14 other countries formed since the Soviet Union was dissolved, are recognized by the world; (4) Ukraine has economic, humanitarian and military support from the EU and NATO countries; and (5) Ukraine is currently led by a president with exceptionally strong leadership.

These five factors have given Ukrainians the confidence to face off against Russia. Their defense capacity in the past eight months proves that Ukraine is no pushover amid the Russian onslaught.

Russia seems to be turning a blind eye to the highly respected resistance showed by Ukraine in defending its territory. Russia’s gross violations in the city of Bucha in the early stages of the war not only stunned the world, but also made deep wounds on the entire Ukrainian people as a nation. Hundreds of civilians were killed. Scores of public facilities, such as schools, hospitals, and residential estates, were destroyed by Russian missiles, which were fired sporadically into many other parts of the country.

Russia will never be able to “reach” Ukraine again. Russia doesn't care about the number of civilian casualties; nor does it about the damage to the Chernobyl (Zhaporozhi) nuclear reactor for turning the site into a battlefield. Russia is not perturbed whatsoever by the world food crisis caused by the closure of shipping access the Black Sea. The Russian President is unmoved that his army and war machine have wrought destruction on Ukrainian land. Public protests against the mobilization of reserves have not moved him, either.

The unfolding situation should recall its invasion of Afghanistan, which ended in defeat and eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990.

However, Russia is beginning to wane in confidence over the aggression it launched on the bases of biased propaganda. Russia seems to be unaware about the fact that it has been ostracized by the world. It has been suffering battlefield losses in the war it started. The unfolding situation should recall its invasion of Afghanistan, which ended in defeat and eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990.

Following the results of its unilateral referendum, the Russian President is now telling the world that Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zhaporozhia are now part of the Russian Federation as of 30 Sept. So the Russian constitution comes into play if these annexed territories come under threat, and President Putin will have his reason to use nuclear weapons under the pretext of defending Russia. It is a Machiavellian theory that has been adopted by a dictator. The question is, will Ukraine back down? Is it so easy for Russia to threaten world security? Will other nuclear powers remain silent? Are those around Putin aware of the impacts of nuclear war on the world, and on Russia in particular?

Avoiding World War III

Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction. The atomic bomb with power equivalent to 15-20 kilotons of TNT that the US dropped during World War II devastated Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.

The nuclear weapons developed today carry the destructive power of over 50 megatons of TNT. They have been developed only as deterrent weapons to prevent countries from using them. This means they are used only as part of preemptive strategy, warning a country never to use them if they don't want to be destroyed. Russia is not the only country to possess nuclear weapons. The other countries with nuclear weapons include the US, the UK, China, India, North Korea, Pakistan and Israel. The 2019 report of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty reveals that an estimated 20,000 nuclear weapons exist in the world.

Countries that seek to use nuclear weapons may end up becoming targeted by the same kind of weapons to stop them. It is inconceivable what the world would be like if a nuclear war did occur. If Russia used nuclear weapons in its war in Ukraine, it would precipitate its own destruction, considering the NATO nuclear weapons installed around Russian territory.

On the other hand, the threat to use nuclear weapons will alert other countries to prepare to use their own to intercept the attacks. Nuclear war would cause a global catastrophe.

The threat to use nuclear weapons can be interpreted as Russia’s "frustration" over the protracted war. Russia’s threat to use any means, including nuclear weapons, is an indication that its military resources are declining. On the other hand, the threat to use nuclear weapons will alert other countries to prepare to use their own to intercept the attacks. Nuclear war would cause a global catastrophe.

It is the responsibility of all states to prevent it. No state in the world will expose itself as a target of mass destruction, including Russia. The ongoing exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens from their country and nationwide protests against the partial mobilization across Russia prove that the Russian people are against the war, let alone being placed under the peril of nuclear weapons. Hopefully, this will not come to pass.

Russia's war in Ukraine has become a global issue. It must be halted by upholding humanitarian principles and international law. Leaders in the world, including Indonesia, must play a role to take steps towards peace. WWII must be the last tragedy in the history of humanity. Do not let WWIII happen.

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Yuddy Chrisnandi

Yuddy Chrisnandi, Professor of Political Science, National University; Indonesian Ambassador to Ukraine (2017-2021)

(This article was translated by Musthofid)