Indonesia and BRICS
The 14th BRICS Summit (Jun. 23-24, 2022), which was hosted virtually by Beijing with the theme “Foster High-quality BRICS Partnership,
It is no coincidence that the issue of Indonesia's membership in the BRICS International Forum (BIF), which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has resurfaced this year when the forum’s chairmanship is held by China.
At the same time, Indonesia is currently the rotating president of the Group of 20 (G20) while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is still overshadowing the world geopolitical situation. The issue about Indonesia’s candidacy to become a member was first raised in 2011 when the BRICS chairmanship was also held by China and the forum had changed its name from BRIC to BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa.
The 14th BRICS Summit (Jun. 23-24, 2022), which was hosted virtually by Beijing with the theme “Foster High-quality BRICS Partnership, Usher in a New Era for Global Development,” was held amid global concern about the economic impact from the Russia-Ukraine war.
Therefore, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a business forum before the commencement of the summit, stated that the Ukraine crisis was a warning bell. He also cautioned about the expansion of military alliances in the world that sought security for themselves at the expense of the security of other countries. It’s worth noting that three BRICS members, China, India and South Africa, opted for abstention in the United Nations (UN) resolution’s vote for condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
BRICS Plus
Many initially doubted the prospects of BRICS given the political and economic differences among its members. Politically, two BRICS countries are still seen as being led by authoritarian regimes, the other three as being noisy democracies.
Russia and China are nuclear powers. India is a de facto nuclear power, while South Africa and Brazil abandoned their nuclear weapons programs in 1989 and 1990, respectively.
Two are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the other three are highly influential at the UN. Russia and China are nuclear powers. India is a de facto nuclear power, while South Africa and Brazil abandoned their nuclear weapons programs in 1989 and 1990, respectively.
China and India fought a war in 1962 and engaged in arms skirmishes in 2020-2022 in the Ladakh region, the Himalayas. China and Russia, then the Soviet Union, broke political relations in early 1960s, known as the Sino-Soviet split. Both were involved in military clashes on the Ussuri River in 1969.
Economically, Brazil, Russia and South Africa are plentiful with natural resources, while India and China are plentiful with manufacturing products. In addition, the BRICS countries have adopted economic liberalization and free market policies in their own way.
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As a cross-continental cooperation forum among emerging markets, BRICS – the acronym was introduced in 2001 by Jim O'Neill, former CEO of Goldman Sachs -- has great resources to rival industrialized countries of the G7 (Canada, United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Japan).
Founded in 2009, the BRICS countries currently combine to account for 43 percent of the world's population and 17 percent of global trade. Collectively, they posted US$ 24.44 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021, exceeding the US and accounting for a quarter of the world GDP (Statista, 28/6/ 2021).
There are at least three reasons why BRICS is looking for expansion. First is the escalation in the East-West confrontation. Second is the pursued transformation into the ”BRICS Plus” cooperation. Third is the growing demands from node countries. It is reported that several countries, such as Argentina, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are willing to join in 2023.
Indonesia's option
Many times since 2011, when BRIC changed to BRICS, has Indonesia been mentioned as the next candidate for membership. During the BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China, in 2017, the Xinhua news agency put on the issue three times that Indonesia would join the forum after the forum’s gathering.
Goldman Sachs has included Indonesia in the Next Eleven (N11) emerging economy group, along with the Philippines, South Korea, Egypt, Turkey and Vietnam.
Interestingly, according to Philip Bowring, the term of emerging markets was not introduced by O'Neill, but by president Soekarno half a century earlier when he put forward the idea of new emerging forces (New York Times, 22/4/2011). Goldman Sachs has included Indonesia in the Next Eleven (N11) emerging economy group, along with the Philippines, South Korea, Egypt, Turkey and Vietnam.
Bowring has doubted the effectiveness of BRICS considering that the emerging forces are more represented in the G20. The Financial Times has seen the BRICS summit as a “no common cause” because the countries have almost nothing in common beyond their economic scale and growth. They even compete with each other increasingly fiercely in the struggle for share in the same market. (chinadaily.com, 04/14/2011).
Both Bowring and the Financial Times seem to have missed out a notion. The world may have changed politically in the absence of ideological rivalries, but economically the gap between rich and poor remains widening. Indeed, no organization is perfect in terms of the fulfillment of the interests of all members.
Besides BRICS, operating among the emerging markets is MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia). As an informal partnership forum, MIKTA serves as a cross-regional consultative platform in establishing a common ground for cooperation.
The G20 is indeed more inclusive because of the presence of BRICS and MIKTA countries, but this group is considered to be dictated by the interests of developed countries, who are also members of the G7. Therefore, cooperation and coordination among the emerging forces/markets is still needed. With MIKTA being considered a “loose” forum, BRICS is expected to become the driving force to bridge and narrow the economic gap.
In this context, BRICS can be seen as a prime mover or a balancer in the face of the G7 or OECD domination.
To join or not to join?
Referring to the Game Theory model, Japanese sociologist Gaetano Mossaco says that an approach is directed to maintain a balance in society by accommodating the interests of various groups. In global interactions, countries which have common interests will join to form a formal or informal group and try to influence the state policies of other groups of countries in order to meet their needs.
However, in the process of bargaining, negotiation and compromise, the smaller or weaker group will succumb to the pressure of the more dominant group.
As an emerging market and the largest Muslim country -- this is acknowledged by China -- Indonesia is indeed the most prospective candidate to be given way to the BRICS membership. The strength of BRICS lies in its diversity and representation. Member countries hope to deepen cooperation with other emerging markets and developing countries and they also expect the appeal of the BRICS to increase (Global Times, 21/5/2022).
Indonesia has yet to decide whether or not to accept the BRICS “offer” for membership. Through diplomatic efforts, Jakarta has sent a clear signal about its non-aligned stance as well as affirming the commitment to participation in developing global stability and an open world economy.
In addition, BRICS has not ratified regulations or legal procedures for expansion to avoid the cumbersome process of membership that requires it to be passed through consensus (The Diplomat, 13/7/2022).
Indonesia will need an adaptation process over the paradigm, perspective and fundamental framework in seeing through the trend of countries going for collective cooperation in groups. Without adaptation, Goldman Sachs' projections could turn out to be wrong and Indonesia could face difficult prospects in its expectation to be able to match the capacity of BRICS, should it join the organization.
For this reason, it is clear that bargaining, negotiation and compromise are needed to prevent other countries’ domination. It means that in the event of losing guard, not only will Indonesia be left out, but it is not impossible that our neighboring countries will "overtake us around the corner."
Dian Wirengjurit
Dian Wirengjurit, Geopolitical and International Relations Analyst
(This article was translated by Musthofid)
