Political Parties Read the People’s Aspirations

Now that political parties have already formed coalitions, they are beginning to narrow down potential presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs for the 2024-2029 period.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

The symbols of political parties participating in the 2019 general election are still depicted on a wall in the South Gandaria area, Jakarta, Wednesday (24/8/2022). Facing the 2024 Presidential Election, political parties are starting to form coalitions.

The presidential and vice-presidential election is slated for Feb. 14, 2024, while registrations will open from 7 to 13 September, 2023. However, many political parties are starting to explore their options and are expected to do so with great care. Like a game of chess, the first move will determine the match.

During the National Mandate Party’s (PAN) national work meeting last week, the party narrowed down nine presidential candidates and divided them into three clusters. First is the executive party cluster, consisting of Zulkifli Hasan (PAN chairman), Airlangga Hartarto (Golkar Party chairman), Suharso Monoarfa (United Development Party chairman) and Puan Maharani (Indonesian Development Party of Struggle chairwoman). PAN, Golkar and PPP formed a coalition known as the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB).

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The second is the minister cluster, namely State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir. Third is the regional heads cluster, consisting of Ganjar Pranowo (Central Java Governor), Anies Baswedan (Jakarta Governor), Ridwan Kamil (West Java Governor) and Khofifah Indarparawansa (East Java Governor).

The Gerindra Party’s national leadership meeting (Rapimnas) last 12 August also confirmed that its chairman, Prabowo Subianto, will be contesting the 2024 race. Gerindra formed an alliance with the National Awakening Party (PKB). Nasdem’s national work meeting last June also proposed three presidential candidates, namely Ganjar, Anies and TNI Commander Gen. Andika Perkasa.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto (second from left) and National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar (second from right) signed a charter of cooperation between the Gerindra Party and PKB in the 2024 presidential election in Sentul, Bogor, West Java, Saturday (13/13) /8/2022).

Political parties are trying to secure a ticket to nominate their presidential and vice-presidential candidate pair as soon as possible. The law requires that a political party or combination of political parties must have at least 20 percent of seats in the House of Representatives or 25 percent of national votes to be able to nominate a presidential and vice-presidential candidate.

The KIB, the Gerindra-PKB coalition and the PDI-P currently have more than 20 percent of House seats and have the right to nominate a presidential and vice-presidential candidate. However, this right should not be used arbitrarily because the people will be the judges in the end.

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Before deciding on which presidential and vice-presidential candidates to nominate, political parties should first consider the future challenges of the government and read the people’s aspirations if they don’t want to be abandoned by their voters.

The presidential election, which will be simultaneously held with the legislative elections, is more likely to cause split voting. Thus, if political parties adopt the right strategy in determining their presidential and vice-presidential candidate pair, it can result in the coattail effect for the legislative elections. On the other hand, if political parties behave like elitists and ignore their lower-level voters, data shows that political parties can lose 20-25 percent of their loyal voters. Efforts to achieve the coattail effect will all be for naught.

This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.