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Global Uncertainty

So far, the consensus on global-economic projections for the next few years is stagflation or an era in which economic growth is low, while inflation is high.

· 5 minutes read

Uncertainty is the biggest enemy of planning, while economics is a matter of projections and strategic calculations that are passed down in the budget. Day-by-day, economic projections are becoming more uncertain, so that imagination about the future based on currently available data is needed. As a result, planning becomes dialectic between vision (ideals) and reality that can quickly change according to changing situations.

Such an approach is known as scenario-based planning. Since the 1970s, the world’s major oil-and-gas company Royal Dutch Shell has developed this approach in coping with uncertainty in oil prices due to political conflicts in the Middle East region and the era of hyper-inflation. Apparently, this approach is very relevant to recent developments at a time of heightened uncertainty.

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