Oasis in the Middle East
Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud also saw progress in dialogue with Iran even though "not enough".
When the world's attention is still pouring out in the Ukraine War, which until now remains unclear as to when it will end, in the "hot spot" region and the Middle East conflict zone, slightly soothing news can be heard.
It is not well known that the fifth round of the meeting of high-ranking Saudi Arabian and Iranian officials took place on 22 April 2022 in Baghdad, Iraq. The series of meetings that began in April 2021 took place in Baghdad because it was bridged by the Iraqi government supported by Oman.
The meeting focused on two main agendas: the normalization of relationships and the war in Yemen. Even though it has not yet produced a significant breakthrough, the meeting has produced 10 points of "memorandum", including: 1) Saudi Arabia allowed Iran to reopen its embassy in Riyadh, for activities related to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) based in Jeddah; 2) Saudi allowed 40,000 Iranian residents to perform the Haj pilgrimage in July 2022 and 3) Both parties will send a delegation within 30 days to discuss the opening of the embassy and its consulate.
Saudi-Iranian relations
Iran and Saudi are two main forces in the Middle East, especially since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Competition for influence, security and regional dominance has resulted in a proxy war in the region, such as in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and especially Yemen. The competition between the two revolves around several key issues, such as beliefs (Sunnis vs Shia), state systems, issues of pan-Arabs such as Palestinian problems, strengthening of the influence of large countries (United States) in the region and conflicting energy policies.
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In the present context, the Saudis cut off its relationship with Iran in January 2016 after Iran's protesters pushed into the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, in response to the execution of Shia scholar, Nimral-Nimr, by Riyadh. The breakdown of diplomatic relations was even followed by the termination of the connection between the Arabic quartet (Saudi, Bahrain, UAE and Egypt) and Iran as well as Qatar. The two countries were also on the opposite parties in a deadly war since 2015 in Yemen, and Syria.
The Saudi and Iranian meeting was made possible following a series of conducive developments in the region. Among other things, first, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in the City of Al-Ala, Saudi Arabia in January 2021. This Summit resulted in reconciliation between the Arabic and Qatar quartets, the second of which had been considered to facilitate terrorist groups and had been boycotted since June 2017. During the boycott action of the quartet, Qatar became closer to Iran, marked by the provision of facilities for Qatar Airways airlines using Iranian air territory, while the Saudi government forbade it.
Second, the OIC special session regarding the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan on 19 December 2021 in Islamabad, Pakistan. Without extensive publications, on the sidelines of the meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Hossein Abdollahiyan held a meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Fausal bin Farhan al-Saud. The discussion of the two foreign ministers represented a significant development for two regional rivals that had been in a proxy war in the Middle East for more than a decade. This also marked the key role played by two mediation forces: Pakistan and China.
The progress of the latest Saudi-Iranian talks occurred when the United Nations extended two months of ceasefire in Yemen which ended on 2 June.
Third, the Yemeni war for eight years has been the center of conflict between the two countries because the Saudis supported the government of President Rashad al-Alimi in the south and Iran supported the Houthi group that de facto came to power in the north. The progress of the latest Saudi-Iranian talks occurred when the United Nations extended two months of ceasefire in Yemen which ended on 2 June.
On the other hand, the Saudis and Gulf countries are also increasingly critical and skeptical of US security commitments, including the slow progress of the Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA), and see reconciliation with Iran as a way to protect themselves from the future threats of the Mullah country.
Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud also saw progress in dialogue with Iran even though "not enough". In line with Vision 2030, Saudi saw the future "which is built on hope, built on prosperity, above development, above cooperation".
Winner and loser
Meetings in Islamabad and Baghdad represented the potential of warming up, in line with a broader strategic goal because the restoration of Riyadh-Tehran relations is considered to be in everyone’s best interests. Saudi-Iranian cooperation will provide greater control over global oil prices because together they contribute 25.7 percent of world oil proven reserves (Saudi 16.2 percent, number two; and Iran 9.5 percent, number four) or 35.5 percent from OPEC oil reserves (www.world Ometers.info, 11/7/2022).
According to Abby Baggini and Farah n Jan in the article The Origins and Futures of the Saudi-Iran Detènte (Responsible Statecraft, 11/1/2022), both Saudi Arabia and Iran depend on economic stability for their survival so that they can benefit together from intense efforts to reduce the temporary tension (détente).
The "Pivot to Asia" strategy of President Barack Obama (2012) and breakaway from the Middle East was carried out to compete with China economically, militarily and diplomatically in its own turf. Now it is China which has taken advantage of this moment as an opportunity to build its influence in the Middle East. This effort was also carried out economically, militarily and diplomatically, including ballistic missile
The position and shared interests (mutual interest) of Riyadh and Tehran are increasingly similar to Beijing, and are considered profitable, so China is happy to facilitate the efforts to reduce the tension between the two rivals.
agreements with the Saudis and the signing of a 25-year cooperation agreement with Iran. The position and shared interests (mutual interest) of Riyadh and Tehran are increasingly similar to Beijing, and are considered profitable, so China is happy to facilitate the efforts to reduce the tension between the two rivals.
The Saudi-Iranian continued discussion was also in accordance with five Items of the Beijing Initiative (2021) for the Middle East, which is basically encouraging political settlement in the hot spot area, and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East. Peter Birgbauer in his article The US Pivot to Asia Was Dead on Arrival (The Diplomat, 31/3/2022) said, since it was launched by the Obama government, the US "axis" (pivot) to Asia continues to slip by the emergency in another place, where the Ukraine war is the latest example.
Map locating Aden in Yemen and the international airport hit by deadly explosions on Wednesday. – AFP / AFP
”Blackfish” effect
In politics, including international politics, the Blackfish effect was popularized by US former foreign minister Condoleezza Rice and Amy B Zegart in the book Political Risk (Gramedia, 2021). Blackfish is a documentary about the mistreatment of Sea World Entertainment (SWE) against the orca whale, which then killed its coach. The release of the film led to the collapse of the big entertainment company.
In the Blackfish effect, two things can appear together without one becoming the cause of the other. However, in this case, the causal relationship is very real. According to Rice and Zegart, it happens because of the absence of calculated political risk, which can occur ranging from traditional risks, such as geopolitics, to new political risks that penetrate boundaries, for example cyber threats and terrorism.
US efforts to "force" the entry of the Ukraine into NATO and the Russian invasion appear to be separate, but are actually closely related to causes and effects. The protracted Ukrainian war, with human victims on the rise and the destruction of infrastructure, which is increasingly massive, it seems that it is not carefully calculated. As a result, Washington is "forced" to give up a variety of resources, especially the military, which is very expensive to support Ukraine in the war.
The Pivot to Asia policy and the sense of being abandoned in the Middle East were not wasted by China, which was full of economic interests in the region, to take over the role of the US.
That is the political risk that it must bear.
Saudi and Iranian rapprochement is clearly a refreshing oasis in the Middle East, especially for China. Beijing will compete with the time to strive for the achievement of Saudi-Iranian peace while the Russian-Ukrainian War drags on. For the US, the completion of the Russian-Ukrainian War does not mean being able to directly return its attention immediately to the Middle East or Asia, because Washington will still be preoccupied with Ukrainian reconstruction efforts; while Europe must rearrange its economy. That is the political risk that it must bear.
Dian Wirengjurit
Dian Wirengjurit,Analyst of Geopolitics and International Relations
(This article was translated by Hyginus Hardoyo)
