Electoral Alliance for Whom?

The basic question that political parties must answered is, who are they actually forming an alliance for? To fulfill the ambitions of their general chairman and party elites, for financial backers, or for the people?

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Chairman of the National Democratic Party (Nasdem) Surya Paloh (left) and Chairman of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (right) after holding a meeting at the Nasdem Party Headquarters, Nasdem Tower, Jakarta, Thursday (23/6/2022). The meeting between Surya Paloh and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono is one of the steps towards exploring an inter-party coalition by 2024. Several other parties, such as PKS and Golkar, have explored with the Nasdem Party.

In heading towards the 2024 presidential election, political parties are continuing to explore the possibility of forming electoral alliances. Each party has a strategy and does not want to be careless and make the wrong move.

The election of the new president and vice president will take place on 14 Feb. 2024. However, the candidate registration period starts on 7 Oct. 2023 and will run until 14 Oct. 2023, or will take place in around 14 months. The political parties do not want to be late.

Political parties realize that their 2024 presidential election (Pilpres) strategy is very crucial. The presidential campaigns, which usually resonate far and wide, will have a major impact on the votes they gain in the simultaneous legislative election (Pileg).

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The regional head elections (Pilkada) will be held on 27 Nov. 2024, when a total of 271 regional heads, consisting of 24 governors, 56 mayors and 191 regents, will be elected. The Pilkada, which falls close to the inauguration of the president and House of Representatives members, could also have an impact.

If the strategy a political party adopts for the presidential election is correct, it is certain to gain a very decisive position in both the government and the House. If its strategy is wrong, it is not impossible that the party will be marginalized or excluded from national politics.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

Chairman of the Golkar Party Airlangga Hartarto (center), Chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) Zulkifli Hasan (left), and Chairman of the United Development Party (PPP) Suharso Monoarfa attend the National Gathering of the Golkar Party, PAN, PPP who are members of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). ) in Jakarta, Saturday (4/6/2022).

Given the strategic nature of the 2024 presidential election, it is not surprising that parties are exploring potential alliances early on. Moreover, parties that have large enough initial capital meet the presidential nomination threshold, which is 20 percent of House seats. Political parties certainly want to nominate their cadres as presidential or vice presidential candidates in order to have an effect (coattail effect) on their standing in the legislative elections, not just to support other parties’ candidates for the presidential election. On the other hand, political parties must also be realistic when taking into account the popularity, electability or resistance of the cadres they nominate.

Instead of getting a coattail effect, political parties that are not careful in nominating their cadres as presidential/vice presidential candidates will see their votes decline and be vulnerable to vote splitting. A Kompas R&D survey showed that 67.7 percent of respondents stated they would vote for their preferred candidate, even if the candidate was backed by a political party they did not like. Around 22-24 percent of respondents could potentially switch their vote to another party’s candidate if the party they like proposed an unpopular candidate.

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The basic question that political parties must answered is, who are they actually forming an alliance for? To fulfill the ambitions of their general chairman and party elites, for their financial backers, or for the people?

What is clear is that the challenges that lie ahead for the 2024-2029 administration are not easy, considering what has happened in 2019-2024. Pandemics caused by zoonotic diseases, climate change impacts, as well as changes in geopolitics and geoeconomics, apart from technological disruptions, are expected to continue to prevail.

Competition between countries will be tighter. The nation needs a government that is strong and solid, just, unifying and able to answer the various challenges ahead so as to improve public welfare amid the increasingly fierce global competition and increasingly uncertain external challenges in a time of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA).

This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo.