Interpretation of Megawati's Speech
The dynamics of the PDI-P's external relations mainly stem from Jokowi's position as President.
The news reports about the dynamic within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) these days seems to bury news reports about the political races of other parties. In fact, it has also buried issues of inflation and the threat of a food crisis.
All of this, in my opinion, is due to an accumulation of four strategic things within the PDI-P. Aside from the fact that the PDI-P has the vote threshold to nominate the president-vice president pair, the political party also has Megawati Soekarnoputri, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and the growing popularity of Ganjar Pranowo.
It must be admitted, ahead of the 2024 general election, that only the PDI-P has this strategic combination of political wealth. This is what has caused internal “turbulence”, however gentle, and the party has caused national political ripples.
Internal dynamics
In contrast to pre-2014, the PDI-P now has two of the most powerful political figures – Megawati and Jokowi – and, so far, cannot be rivaled by any other party.
Also read:
> Strongest Woman in the World
> Political Party Electability Volatility
In addition, the combination of Sukarno's influence and more than two decades of accumulated political experience has made Megawati a major figure at the national level, especially within the PDI-P itself. In other words, the combination of Sukarno's influence and Megawati's personal power was the main contributor to the continuity and "greatness" of the PDI-P.
This internal political wealth is complemented by the presence of Jokowi as President. Thus, the PDI-P combines two major forces at once, namely popular power (represented by Megawati) and executive power (represented by Jokowi).
The problem is, in contrast to pre-2014 election period, between Megawati and Jokowi today, who has the greatest contribution to the "greatness" and sustainability of the PDI-P?
In this period, perhaps even into 2019, the main internal figure of the PDI-P was Megawati. However, this dominant position has been slightly balanced by Jokowi's presence.
This question will be more pronounced, or to use the Betawi term, kereng, if you look at the PDI-P's previous internal situation. In this period, perhaps even into 2019, the main internal figure of the PDI-P was Megawati. However, this dominant position has been slightly balanced by Jokowi's presence.
In this context, Jokowi's personal character is not only proven by his ability to win the presidential seat for two periods (2014-2019 and 2019-2024), but at the same time, Jokowi has unparalleled popularity in the community.
Especially for this last point, Jokowi's influence even crosses the boundaries of the PDI-P itself. Didn't Jokowi's voters in the two presidential elections expand and come from outside PDI-P supporters? Thus, much of the PDI-P's internal dynamics stem from this new “balance.”
External relations
The dynamics of the PDI-P's external relations mainly stem from Jokowi's position as President. To maintain the stability of his control as the executive, Jokowi must structurally make alliances with forces outside the PDI-P.
Here, unlike Megawati, Jokowi's position is more flexible. His presidential powers facilitate Jokowi's influence within the coalition parties of his government. This makes Jokowi, as can be seen from the smooth process of making laws, basically the controller of the legislature.
On top of that, the appointment of the general chairmen of the coalition parties (except Nasdem) as ministers gave Jokowi's influence a way to enter each of these parties. So in this context, Jokowi can be characterized as the “general chair” of the general chairs of the parties that are members of the governing coalition.
In short, despite occupying only the "second" position in the PDI-P, Jokowi has alternative political resources outside the PDI-P.
In this latter position, Jokowi not only has autonomy from Megawati's influence but also has control over a more diverse range of political resources. In short, despite occupying only the "second" position in the PDI-P, Jokowi has alternative political resources outside the PDI-P.
Thus, through the control of the political resources of members of his government coalition, without realizing it, Jokowi has emerged as a separate figure at the national level who, in some respects, has an influence parallel to Megawati Soekarnoputri.
It is in this privileged position that we can understand that Jokowi has both confidence and his own political calculations about the future of Indonesia's leaders, which do not have to be in line with Megawati's.
Ganjar Pranowo factor
This seems to be the background for the phrase "Ojo kesusu [do not rush], even though the person is here" from Jokowi. We know that the phrase was coined during a meeting of the Projo (Pro-Jokowi) volunteer group in Borobudur, Central Java, some time ago. Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo participated in the meeting.
And because his popularity continues to rise, all participants, as well as the general public, suspect that what is meant by "the person is here" in Jokowi's sentence is Ganjar. Although not directly, Jokowi signaled who had his sympathy.
Also read:
> Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies Remain on Top
> PDI-P and Gerindra’s Positions Remain Static
About this, there are two notes that we can give. First, repeating what happened to Jokowi, Ganjar's popularity radiates more from his personal strength than from party contributions. In another sense, although it is true that the PDI-P has given the stage, Ganjar's popularity is beyond the control of the party. Second, Ganjar's popularity, which is autonomous, has inspired various parties to carry out political maneuvers outside the PDI-P.
This, among other things, prompted Nasdem Party to organize the National Working Meeting (Rakernas) in its efforts to recruit presidential candidates, of which Ganjar is one. More specifically, Ganjar's popularity can be attributed to the birth of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), which consists of Golkar, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP).
We can easily see this connection in the fact that in terms of popularity, none of the elite party members of the coalition has the potential as a presidential candidate. Therefore, we do not see any reasonable reason to build this coalition except to accommodate Ganjar.
Alternative political map
It is this map of national political dynamics that provides ways for us to interpret Megawati's recent speech, which was very expressive, that the new balance of political power inside and outside the PDI-P prompted Megawati to conduct a two-sided evaluation.
First, the speech was technical, internal and juridical. Megawati's statement that she, as general chair of the PDI-P, was officially entrusted with the mandate from the congress to determine the presidential candidate from her party, was an internal technical-juridical confirmation. Second, it provided a strategic-ethical response. This happened because the basis of the struggle and dynamics of national politics today rests on the too high vote threshold in the legislature in granting the legitimacy of presidential and vice presidential candidates (presidential threshold). Although the PDI-P was a participant in creating this presidential threshold, the balance of the new political landscape outside the PDI-P seems to have forced Megawati to look at the situation more critically.
The main reason is that the presidential threshold, which is too high, has the potential to open up opportunities for capital intervention from non-party circles. This means the same as perpetuating the oligarchic element in Indonesian national politics.
So, in this second context, Megawati, through her statement regarding her prerogative to nominate a presidential candidate from the PDI-P, builds a "counterpoint" political map, namely eliminating the uncontrollable side of political movements outside the party by bringing Ganjar back into the fold under her control.
Given that the popularity of the governor of Central Java has become a source of foreign political movements and maneuvers that have an inward influence, then "reclaiming Ganjar back to PDI-P" is a strategic step to reduce this uncontrollable element.
Ganjar's statement that he is not willing to be nominated by another party is the maximum result of this tug-of-war process. This "counter" political map is, therefore, very crucial for Megawati. Given that the popularity of the governor of Central Java has become a source of foreign political movements and maneuvers that have an inward influence, then "reclaiming Ganjar back to PDI-P" is a strategic step to reduce this uncontrollable element. Wouldn't that make the New Indonesia Coalition idle?
Ethically, this step is also crucial. Although the final result is not yet known, the efforts of capital intervention from non-political actors into the presidential-vice presidential nomination process have been relatively hampered. Although certainly not completely, the oligarchic element in national politics has the potential to be reduced.
Fachry Ali
Fachry Ali,Cofounder of the Institute for the Study and Development of Business Ethics (LSPEU Indonesia)
(This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo)
