Changing Party Coalition Trends
The willingness of parties to meet and initiate early coalitions indicates a changing trend in inter-party relations going forward, especially in coalitions.
In the midst of political competition leading up to the 2024 General Election, which is expected to be a close race, political parties are starting to open up to cooperation.
The willingness of parties to meet and initiate early coalitions indicates a changing trend in inter-party relations going forward, especially in coalitions. The political innovation of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) to initiate an early coalition is interesting to observe and is expected to influence coalition formation in the future. This paper discusses how the coalition trend will change in the future and the factors that will affect coalition solidity.
Ahead of the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) it is predicted that there will be some behaviour changes and trends in inter-party relations. First, it is predicted that in the future the parties will be more open to discussing important strategic platforms and agendas at the domestic or global level. Changes in behaviour occur because of the emergence of new elites within the party who come from professional/expert groups. In addition, parties are increasingly willing to accept input from expert groups when making strategic party policies.
In the midst of domestic and global issues that present tough challenges for the future, the involvement of expert groups in party policymaking is important. For example, the following situations present serious coming challenges: the threat of food scarcity and an increase in world food prices, demographic bonuses and the growing non-productive age group (aging society) and global warming. In addition, at the domestic level, we still face challenges in issues of education and human development, such as the potential for lost generation due to the pandemic and the treatment of tengkes (stunting), which has not shown significant improvement.
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Second, party elites are starting to show willingness to meet and seek political similarities rather than differences, and this is good for our political development. In recent times, peaceful collaborations have prevailed with the meetings of party elites who had previously been in different political blocs. The general chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, met with the general chairman of Nasdem, Surya Paloh.
Most recently, the 6th President of the Republic of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) also held a meeting with Surya Paloh.
This political meeting is good for public political education to reduce the political polarization that has occurred since 2014. We hope those political meetings and agreements will focus more on discussing national strategic agenda post-2024 than negotiating the presidential/vice-presidential candidate pairs.
Third, it is predicted that inter-party political meetings will encourage parties to form an early pre-election 2024 coalition. In the case of Indonesia, pre-election coalitions are often formed at the last minute before the registration of presidential/vice-presidential candidates. Coalition formation often occurs because of the need to fulfil legal requirement rather than based on the similarity of the party's platform/agenda. As a result, these coalitions are often unstable and do not have a strong bond. This affects the tendency of the elected president to accommodate other parties after the new government is formed (Slater, 2018).
Another factor that influences the formation of early coalitions is the tendency for the presidential election to be a neck-and-neck race, thus encouraging parties to build chemistry with the candidates early. The tight nature of the upcoming presidential election race is evident in the close electability gap between popular candidates and the absence of incumbents because President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has already served two terms.
Strategic agenda
The establishment of KIB shows the party's desire to push the strategic policy agenda rather than ideological factors. In the future, parties need to be encouraged to look for similarities in terms of policies rather than similarities in ideology, in order to form coalitions early. The more flexible the ideology of inter-party coalitions, the easier it will be for parties to push for policy-based coalitions before the presidential election (Kellam, 2015).
This fluid coalition is already visible at the local level. In the analysis of the party coalition model in the pilkada (regional head election), there is no consistent pattern found in the parties in the coalition. Amid the high fragmentation of political parties at the local level and the strict requirements for candidacy, the nominating coalition in the regional head elections has become very fluid, both in terms of party ideology or political affiliation of parties at the national level (CSIS, 2018).
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At the local level, the rigid requirements for candidacy mean that there is no strong incentive for parties to look for alternative candidates because of the difficulty in forming a coalition. This state of affairs has encouraged parties to support the incumbent candidate. In the national context, the rigid requirements for candidacy in the regional and presidential elections are also expected to influence the behaviour of parties in coalitions. In the Election Law No. 7/2017 Article 222, it is stipulated that pairs of candidates are proposed by a party or coalition of parties that garner legislative seats of at least 20 percent or 25 percent of valid popular votes nationally in the previous election.
Encouragement parties to form early and permanent coalitions needs to be continuous for several strategic reasons. Among other benefits, the early coalition provides ample time for parties and coalition members to discuss strategic policies and to involve the public in the candidacy process through open screening. In the case in the regions, for example, a permanent majority coalition is capable of making good public service policies, especially in the early years of government.
With an early coalition, parties can make commitments regarding the priorities of post-election governance. A study by Freudenreich (2016) in Latin American countries shows that cabinet formation is generally determined based on commitments made before the presidential election.
In the case of Indonesia, the existence of an early coalition allows parties and presidential candidates to discuss priorities and government formation intensively before the polling day.
Another strategic benefit to early coalitions is that they provide the certainty for candidates of getting tickets and ample time to disseminate information to voters. In addition, with an early coalition, there is plenty of time for voters to study the vision and track record of the candidate.
Vulnerability
Coalition parties must also mitigate vulnerabilities that are expected to affect the solidity of pre-election political coalitions. One possible mitigation technique is ensuring more open and fair power sharing among the parties that will join the coalition.
Second, consider looking for candidates who have a long-term political vision and have the potential to win the election. Candidates who are visionary and have a good chance of winning can become a unifying figure of the coalition. Otherwise, the coalition might be vulnerable to being broken, especially if there is an external push to cross over to another coalition that is more politically and electorally promising.
The third vulnerability can occur after the presidential election. The results of the presidential election affect the solidity of the coalition that was formed before the election. The potential for parties to form new coalitions after the presidential election is quite strong. The tendency of parties that lose in elections to join the newly elected government is also a challenge in forming permanent coalitions. Moreover, some parties feel that there is no political and financial incentive in being an opposition party, so the urge to become part of the elected government grows.
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Another factor that affects the stability and durability of the coalition is the influence of political factions within the coalition. Fionna and Tomsa's (2020) study found that internal party factionalism factors influence coalition formation and cabinet formation. For this reason, political parties need to ensure that there is solidity within the party regarding the party's strategic policies in supporting certain pairs of candidates, or forming coalitions.
The durability of the coalition can also be affected by how much the party tends to represent the preferences of voters when deciding to build a coalition. The party's error in projecting a coalition will affect the party's vote acquisition in the election. The push for parties to form early coalitions is considered strategic, so that new mechanisms are available in the process of candidacy and nomination of political and national leaders in the future.
Arya Fernandes
Arya Fernandes, Head of Politics and Social Change Department, CSIS
This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo.
