RI G20 Presidency Provides Optimism
Especially for Indonesia, there are additional determining factors, namely the effectiveness of the central-regional governments, as well as political and security stability ahead of the 2024 General Election.
The Russia-Ukraine war has posed threats of a new crisis amid the world's efforts to recover from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. Globalization is diminishing, and world fragmentation is becoming evident. The Group of 20 has the opportunity to be a solution to this situation.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The world is undergoing a major change of order, not being triggered by planned transformation but the threatening excess of multiple crises. After the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has plunged the world into complicated and dangerous geopolitics marked by the sharp fragmentation of countries.
Indonesia's Group pf 20 presidency has the opportunity to provide optimism and contribute a solution to this situation.
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Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, in a videoconference with Kompas daily, said from Washington DC on Friday (22/4/2022) that the Russia-Ukraine war and Western economic sanctions against Russia had caused global economic impacts with countries across the world currently responding to find ways to reduce risks in their respective domestic interests.
“There will be a phenomenon that we [commonly] see in the global economy. So far, globalization is considered a mechanism acceptable to all countries as a way to increase people's prosperity," Sri Mulyani said.
However, the Russia-Ukraine war, which was followed by Western sanctions against Russia, she said, gave rise to world sentiments of a new Cold War era. This triggered a loss of trust between countries as well as caution over globalization.
"What may happen? The world will probably change completely," she said.
Prior to the Russo-Ukrainian war triggering Western sanctions against Russia, a number of studies stated that the world was heading toward a new order. They mentioned at least four main factors that would shape the new world order. First was the health crisis due to the pandemic. The second was the economic crisis due to the pandemic. The third was climate change. The fourth was the United States-China competition, which was seen as greatly affecting the geopolitical map of the region and the world.
Especially for Indonesia, there are additional determining factors, namely the effectiveness of the central-regional governments, as well as political and security stability ahead of the 2024 General Election.
In her book entitled The Pandemic is a Portal, Arundhati Roy writes that historically, pandemics have always forced mankind to detach from their past and at the same time imagine a new world. This Covid-19 pandemic is no different. The current situation in eastern Europe has added to the complexity of risky change.
Globalization diminishing
Sri Mulyani said the world would either continue the path of globalization that had been going on for the last 40 years or be as fragmented as it was before World War II. World polarization was feared to affect the economy and the people, especially in trade and investments.
Sri Mulyani emphasized that Indonesia must be able to respond to the global major changes. She saw Indonesia, as the holder of this year's G20 presidency, had the opportunity to interact intensively with G20 member countries to access direct information.
"We become aware of what they [countries] are thinking. This should enable us to respond properly amid the difficult situation," she said.
She said the trade war made the prices of world commodities, such as energy and food, skyrocket as they were highly sensitive to social upheavals. Many countries, especially those under democratic governments, were at risk of dynamic, intense and complex sociopolitical conflicts.
So, Indonesia has a huge responsibility for the increasingly complicated global situation.
“I would say it’s very complicated, sensitive and dangerous. Indonesia must really work very seriously to protect domestic interests. However, as mandated by the constitution, Indonesia should maintain the world order based on [the principles of] sovereignty, peace and social justice. So, Indonesia has a huge responsibility for the increasingly complicated global situation," she said.
The G20 has become a concrete platform for Indonesia to take on this responsibility. On the other hand, the G20 is the largest economic cooperation forum involving 85 percent of the world's gross domestic product. With superpower countries involved in the current conflict among its members, the G20 has the potential to be a solution.
Concerns have been raised that the G20 would not be up to the challenges of the world’s current problem in the face of world fragmentation brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Washington DC on April 20, as a benchmark for the next series of G20 activities, as Sri Mulyani said, showed hope-sparking dynamics.
“In the wake of a chaotic situation and news [about world crises], all member countries, including those at odds in the war, pledged support to the Indonesian presidency and all the agenda of the Indonesian presidency. And that's evident," she said.
If the war stopped in the near future, the G20 would find it easier to carry out its agenda.
However, Sri Mulyani pointed out that the next G20 activities would not necessarily be as smooth as expected because of the challenging factors that would determine the dynamics of the G20 going forward. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war continuing, the situation was feared to worsen and the challenges of the G20 grow even more severe. If the war stopped in the near future, the G20 would find it easier to carry out its agenda, Sri Mulyani said.
"I don't want to get too boastful [about the prospect], but we [are working] very intensely. It takes time to communicate with all the G20 members. My team and I will continue to communicate intensively to find out the development and focus on achieving the agenda we want to achieve.”
Strong economy and military
An international relations expert from the University of Chicago, John Joseph Mearsheimer, on several occasions, argued that the world order had been built on anarchism and that it was the reality of the
world up to this day. There are no legal systems and institutions that can effectively regulate the behavior of states.
If there is no conflict between national interests and global values, according to Mearsheimer, the states will go hand in hand. However, a conflict will make a state always prioritize its national interest.
In such a situation, he says, the most rational thing that each state can do in order to survive and protect its national interests effectively is to become as strong as it can be, both in the economic and military fields.
Meanwhile, the second round of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Banks Governors meeting on Friday agreed on the establishment of financing facilities to anticipate and prepare for future pandemics as part of strengthening the international health architecture under the Financial Intermediary Fund (FIF) mechanism.
(DIM/RAZ/FAJ/LAS)
(This article was translated by Musthofid)