G20 Presidency Dragged into Ukraine Crisis

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French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a media conference at the G20 summit in Rome, Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. The two-day Group of 20 summit concluded on Sunday, the first in-person gathering of leaders of the world's biggest economies since the COVID-19 pandemic started.

The conflict of interest between Russia and the United States regarding the Ukraine crisis has extended to the Group of 20 (G20) presidency in Indonesia in 2022. Whatever Indonesia’s attitude, this may impact the quality of the results of G20 as well as national interests.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – This year, Indonesia assumed the Group of 20 (G20) presidency. As president, Indonesia is responsible for organizing G20 activities that can effectively respond to the challenges of the present-day and future. From a domestic perspective, G20 activities are expected to support national development.

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However, the escalating crisis in Ukraine, as of 24 Feb. 2022, has put Indonesia’s G20 presidency in a tight spot. Conflicting interests and political constellations due to the Ukraine crisis have inevitably spread and are reflected in the dynamics of the G20. This is because the main actors involved in the conflict, as well as their supporters, are also G20 members.

According to international relations expert from the University of Chicago’s political science department, John Mearsheimer, the Ukraine crisis is an explosive battle of interest between the US and Russia. The US seeks to continue expanding its hegemony through the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to Russian borders, a move that was opposed by Moscow because it was viewed as a threat to Russia’s national strategic interests. As a proxy, Ukraine has become the victim.

Even invitations have become a dilemma.

Based on information compiled by Kompas, the affairs of the G20 presidency in Indonesia have started to feel complicated, sensitive and very political. Indonesia is caught in a tug-of-war between the interests of the countries in conflict. Even invitations have become a dilemma.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry’s strategic leadership support bureau head Achmad Rizal Purnama said, during a weekly press conference in Jakarta, Thursday (17/3/2022), that Foreign Affairs Minister Retno Marsudi had already communicated with the other foreign ministers of G20 countries. Discussions included the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “Indonesia must listen to all sides,” he said.

Differences of opinion at the G20 are common, Rizal added. However, it is not necessarily an obstacle to working together. This time, differing views arose concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

KOMPAS/NINA SUSILO

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.

Rizal also said that Retno had reminded her colleagues at the G20 that all wars had a negative impact on the world. Thus, its handling needed to be discussed. “Keep in mind that the G20 was formed to respond to crises,” he said.

Former foreign affairs minister for the 2009-2014 period, Marty Natalegawa, was of the opinion that the Ukraine crisis would inevitably affect the dynamics of the G20. Therefore, Indonesia must be prepared so that the crisis does not snowball during G20 activities.

The global economic impact of the Ukraine crisis, Marty continued, could serve as an opportunity for the G20 to intervene. This is because the crisis, which was accompanied by a bombardment of sanctions from the US and its allies against Russia, had begun to impact the global economy.

“Instead of waiting until the problem further divides the G20, Indonesia must come up with a concept at this G20 meeting to bridge all interests. Thus, we must take the initiative, at least through the [crisis’] economic impact as an entry point,” said Marty.

Therefore, foreign policy must serve as the basis for government decisions during the country’s G20 Presidency.

Lecturer at the University of Indonesia’s department of economics and business, Chatib Basri, said the G20 was a forum to actualize Indonesia’s foreign policy. Therefore, foreign policy must serve as the basis for government decisions during the country’s G20 Presidency.

“We should first determine our foreign policy. If our stance is to maintain balance, then we have to lobby. I don’t know how effective lobbying can be given that [Russia-US] relations are as they are today,” Chatib said.

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Every choice, Chatib added, would have economic and political consequences for Indonesia. The solution to this challenge must be calculated comprehensively by the government. “Ideally, we lobby both parties to accept our stance. But if this doesn’t occur, or if the lobbying fails, then we must also prepare contingency plans, which take into account the economic and political consequences from the perspective of national interests,” he said.

AP/MARKUS SCHREIBER

FILE - Women show posters in support of the Ukraine as they attend a demonstration along the street near the Russian embassy to protest against the escalation of the tension between Russia and Ukraine in Berlin, Germany, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2022. Europe braced for further confrontation Wednesday, Feb. 23, 2022 after tensions over Ukraine escalated dramatically when Russian President Vladimir Putin got the OK to use military force outside his country and the West responded with sanctions.

Gadjah Mada University (UGM) international relations lecturer Muhadi Sugiono said there had been discussions to exclude Russia from the G20. This discourse also emerged in a series of G20 technical preparatory sessions. “Although Indonesia has a track record as well as the capital to embrace all, this challenge is not easy to overcome,” he said in Yogyakarta.

Indonesia, according to Muhadi, needed to take the discourse on Russia’s exclusion seriously. This was because there were countries that supported and rejected it. Its proponents and detractors alike make important contributions to the global economy.

The main challenge, Muhadi said, is that relations between the US and its allies and Russia were no longer at the stage of conflict but ideological enmity.

“If the problem is a matter of interest, then there is still a chance to find common ground. But if the problem has come to the negation of other parties, then compromise will be difficult,” said Muhadi.

(This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia).