Indonesia’s pandemic response is facing challenges from the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, first detected in November. Although it is not the only variable, the emergence of the new variant has been accompanied by an increase in the number of confirmed cases.
This condition is apparent in the Kompas daily’s Covid-19 Control Index (IPC-19). The index has been logging data on pandemic control in each province since 19 July 2021 according to indicators of infection control and therapeutic management.
Infection control takes account of average and maximum caseload, the proportion of confirmed cases among tests (positivity rate), and full-dose coverage in the population expressed as a percentage. The indicators for therapeutic management comprise the ratio of recovery among total cases, the average fatality among total cases, and the average bed occupancy rate (BOR) for hospitalized Covid-19 patients.
When Indonesia was swept by the second wave in mid-2021, driven primarily by the Delta variant, the IPC-19 scored low across the nation. On 19 July, the country scored 44 out of a maximum 100. At that time, the number of daily cases had surpassed 50,000. All provinces also faced problems in Covid-19 response as regards both infection control and therapeutic management.
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At present, Indonesia needs to be alert to the risks of a high wave of infections driven by the Omicron strain. Moreover, the IPC-19 shows that the country’s Covid-19 response has begun to stagnate after recording an improving trend from August 2021. Over the past three weeks, the nationwide IPC-19 has stagnated at a score of 83.
There are two aspects that indicate the country’s need to heighten vigilance. First, the number of confirmed cases has risen significantly over the course of this month. The country saw a daily rise of 802 new cases on 11 Jan., the highest since the end of October 2021.
Second, the IPC-19 scores of many regions declined in the last two weeks of the year. The scores of 10 provinces showed a decline in the first week of 2022. A similar condition was recorded in the second week of January, with 11 provinces showing a drop in their scores.
This condition was also seen when Indonesia experienced the second wave of infections in July 2021, with increases in provincial scores following decreases in previous weeks.
Attention needs to be focused on the 11 provinces whose IPC-19 scores have shown stagnation. Some even recorded lower scores on the index for three consecutive weeks.
Jakarta has been recording a declining trend in its IPC-19 score for the past three weeks. Its score even dropped to 5 points, the province’s lowest since July 2021.
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The slump in Jakarta’s IPC-19 score was directly proportional to the increase in the number of confirmed cases. The capital city logged 537 new cases on 11 Jan. 2022, the highest single-day increase since 2 Sept. 2021.
In eastern Indonesia, the three provinces that recorded stagnation and a declining trend over three consecutive weeks were North Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi and West Sulawesi. The three provinces need to improve their Covid-19 infection control and therapeutic management.
Health services
Meanwhile, 10 regions need to strengthen local health services and facilities, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Their positivity rates have shown a tendency to fluctuate more than the positivity rates of the other provinces.
Analyzing the positivity rate and the bed occupancy rate (BOR) at specially designated Covid-19 hospitals indicates a strong positive correlation between these variables in 10 provinces: Yogyakarta, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, West Java, East Kalimantan, West Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, East Java and South Sumatra.
The strongest correlation was found in Yogyakarta. Over the last two months, an increase of 0.05 percentage points in the positivity rate has caused the BOR in the province to increase 1.3 percentage points. The province’s weekly positivity rate was 0.14 percent on 10 Jan., indicating that an increase in Yogyakarta’s positivity rate to 1 percent can cause the provincial BOR to soar above 10 percent.
(KOMPAS Research and Development)
This article was translated by Aris Prawira.
