Beware of Third Wave of Pandemic
Increasing vigilance against a potential third wave is urgent. Nonetheless, promoting tourism consistently in conjunction with enforcing tight discipline in observing the health protocols is also necessary.
The Covid-19 pandemic has passed two Idul Fitri holidays and one year-end holiday season. Christmas 2021 and New Year 2022 will be arriving before long.
Based on previous experience, every long holiday has always been followed by a surge in daily Covid-19 cases. This was even more the case when the Delta variant emerged in Indonesia in June, which then triggered a drastic spike in daily cases. This forced the government to impose the four-tiered public activity restrictions (PPKM) in a sustained manner starting in July.
Thanks to the sustained emergency PPKM, the number of daily cases has now fallen to less than 1,000 from the earlier rate in July, which reached a daily record of over 56,000 cases. The latest map of the Covid-19 risk assessment level of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ranks Indonesia, China and a few other countries as countries with low Covid-19 risk (level 1).
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This achievement needs to be maintained, so anticipatory measures are needed to prevent the possibility of another surge in cases in connection with the Christmas 2021 and New Year 2022 holidays. The Delta variant and the potential emergence other new variants cannot be trivialized. Even slight negligence or opportunities resulting from relaxing prematurely could cause the daily caseload to rise sharply. Several countries that were seen to have succeeded in controlling the virus have experienced spikes in cases.
Singapore, which has a vaccination rate reaching 80 percent, has seen the number of daily cases skyrocket since early September, from below 100 cases at the end of August to over 3,000 cases in the third week of October. Around the same time, steep increases in infections have also been recorded in Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Britain, the Netherlands and Germany.
Vietnam had apparently maintained been a zero case rate from the outset of the pandemic, but its defenses finally broke down in mid-May 2021 to record 16,000 cases on 26 Aug. 2021.
Public awareness and income
The markedly increasing trend in various countries and the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic demand us to stay on the alert.
The results of the October survey of the Transportation Ministry’s Research and Development Agency showed that from a sampling of 97,855 respondents, 13 percent intended to travel during the Christmas 2021 and New Year 2022 holidays. The number of travelers in Java and Bali alone was estimated at 19.9 million people and in Greater Jakarta, 4.5 million (35 percent). The other regions surveyed include East Java (20 percent), Central Java (20 percent) and West Java (16 percent).
Most travel destinations are in Central Java (24 percent), East Java (19 percent) and West Java (18 percent), while the transportation modes are motorcycles (35 percent), private vehicles (21 percent) and buses (13 percent). Other modes of travel are trains (8.4 percent), airplanes (7.7 percent), rental cars (6.3 percent), hired cars (3.4 percent) and ships (1.2 percent).
Meanwhile, last year’s survey revealed that 27 percent of respondents intended to travel during the year-end holiday season. The majority of original destinations were also Greater Jakarta (31.64 percent), with other regional destinations including Central Java (20 percent), East Java (13 percent) and West Java (10 percent).
By percentage, the number of potential travelers during Christmas and New Year this year drastically is less than half of last year’s total. The decrease in potential travel demand over Christmas and New Year this year has been caused by two main factors: higher level of public awareness and general decline in incomes, especially among the middle income group.
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The greater part of the public has realized that holiday travel during the pandemic to their hometowns or on sightseeing tours carries health risks, especially for unvaccinated people. In addition, the public understands that the government will most likely enforce community mobility and crowd restrictions by tightening travel requirements to prevent a potential surge in infections in the post-Christmas and New Year period among travelers using land, sea and air transportation, both public and private.
The general decline in people’s incomes as an impact of the pandemic, particularly the middle income group, has directly reduced the travel demand over Christmas and New Year holidays. In macro terms, the 2021 economy has grown positively, as has third-party funds in the banking sector, because of the large contribution of rich debtors. However, this is not the case with the middle income group.
The results of a July survey revealed that 50.2 percent of middle-class respondents experienced a drop in income during the pandemic. As regards expenditure, 49.1 percent of respondents said they had borne the same financial burden before and during the pandemic, while 38 percent said that their spending was even higher amid the pandemic. Despite the general decline in income, the potential for mobility over the Christmas and New Year holidays remains relatively high at 13 percent. This rate should be lowered to less than 5 percent or just 1 percent.
Anticipatory measures
In order to restrict the potential for community mobility and public gatherings in conjunction with the year-end holiday, the government has adopted several anticipatory measures. The critical holiday period is from 23 Dec. 2021 to 3 Jan. 2022. The first and most controllable step is to restrict the mobility of state civil servants (ASN).
The collective leave slated to start on 24 Dec. 2021 has been canceled as stipulated in the Joint Decree of the Religious Affairs, Manpower and the Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Ministers. Apart from that, the government has prohibited ASN from traveling during their year-end holidays as per the Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Minister’s Circular (SE) No. 13/2021 on the Restrictions on Regional Travel and/or Leave for ASN during National Holidays in 2021.
The government, through the Human Development and Culture Coordinating Minister, has also appealed to the people to not travel back to their hometowns or take travel for nonessential purposes. All ministries and state institutions directly related to public activities, including the Indonesian Military (TNI), National Police, Home Ministry, Transportation Ministry and Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry, must synchronize their regulations and enforcement within the framework of the public mobility restrictions in light of potential crowding during the critical holiday period.
Increasing vigilance against a potential third wave is urgent.
Regulatory synchronization is apparent between Home Minister’s Instructions on PPKM levels 3, 2 and 1 No. 55/2021 (for Java/Bali) and No. 56/2021 (outside Java/Bali), and Transportation Minister’s Circular No. 93/2021 on the Amendment of Circular No. 88/2021 on Directives for Domestic Air Travel during the Covid-19 Pandemic, and the Second Addendum to the Covid-19 Task Force Chief’s Circular No. 21/2021 on Domestic Travel Provisions during the Covid-19 Pandemic.
The requirements for long-distance travel by air, train, ship and commercial bus have been tightened. The vaccination card (for at least the first dose) is now one of the requirements for interregional travel in Java and Bali as well as outside Java and Bali. Intercity travelers using motorcycles are also required to show their vaccination card and must test negative for Covid-19 at least 24 hours prior to departure. For air transportation outside Java/Bali, the negative results of an antigen test can be used instead place of a negative PCR test result. This rule is based on the consideration that the availability of PCR tests is relatively limited outside Java/Bali.
Increasing vigilance against a potential third wave is urgent. Nonetheless, promoting tourism consistently in conjunction with enforcing tight discipline in observing the health protocols is also necessary. The year-end holidays also fall close to the World Superbike and the MotoGP Indonesia 2022 in Mandalika. In addition, Bali reopened to international tourists on 14 October. Secure, convenient and safe transportation, mobility and tourism must therefore be underscored as the principle of the 2021 year-end holiday season.
According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, self- actualization is the highest motivation. Leisure and recreational activities fall within the framework of self-actualization. Human beings will strive to achieve self-actualization after they have fulfilled their basic needs in at the lower levels, both physical and psychological.
Wihana Kirana Jaya
Tourism is the sector directly related to leisure and recreational activities. In the perspective of the “rules of the game” economics theory, fulfilling the need of self-actualization, including through travel and tourism, must follow the rules of the game, which comprise the policies/regulations of relevant authorities and the new health protocol norms, from the means of travel to the destination, for the sake of controlling the spread of Covid-19.
Wihana Kirana Jaya, Special Staffer to the Minister of Transportation
This article was translated by Aris Prawira.
