Regional Instability Threats
We have a constitutional responsibility to protect the country from the "conflict" between the two powerhouses at odds with each other.
Heryunanto
Indonesia is in a state of vigilance. As Indonesia grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic impact, the security situation in the region has been escalating.
In the north, China\'s dominance in the South China Sea is growing stronger. Without Indonesia\'s permission, six Chinese warships crossed the North Natuna Sea on 13 Sept.
In the south, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, together with United States President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, announced the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, United States) trilateral security pact on 15 Sept.
The establishment of AUKUS has evoked memories of the Cold War. This is because it is believed the alliance formed between the three countries is intended to counterbalance China\'s power in the Indo-Pacific region.
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AUKUS also enables Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines as well artificial intelligence, quantum and cyber technologies.
On the other side, China has denounced the alliance as “irresponsibly creating threats”. China has also pointed to AUKUS as an affront to the commitment to a nuclear-free South Pacific. This reaction shows aggravation on the part of Beijing, which has ruled the region for the past decade.
Alliance proxy
AUKUS is different from ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, United States), which was born after World War II. However, both pacts have similar vested interests. Australia has become a proxy of the Western powers in facing the hegemonic threat posed by the East. Morgenthau (1948) called this “balance of power”.
AUKUS’ existence will certainly have significant implications on the region’s new energy source ventures. The growing trend of the electric-powered vehicle industry demands nickel and lithium as raw materials for batteries.
With the largest nickel reserve in the world, it is clear that Indonesia is up for grabs. There are those who suspect that nickel is being sold cheaply to China and Indonesia is overly siding with foreign workers.
President Joko Widodo gave a speech at the ground breaking of the electric vehicle battery factory owned by PT HKML Battery Indonesia at the Karawang New Industrial City Complex, Karawang Regency, West Java, Wednesday (15/9/2021).
In response to the accusations, the Indonesian government is planning to build an electric battery factory in cooperation with China and South Korea at an investment value of around Rp 296 trillion.
Cooperating with just one country would only provoke a reaction from the other country. Indonesia will be inevitably forced to follow the pace and interests of each major actor. In this case, Indonesia can learn from the Middle East.
Ownership of new energy sources has turned into a disaster. Countries rich in oil and gas have become a battlefield between global powers, from a safe and peaceful area to an area of endless war and conflict. In fact, it is not impossible that it will become an arena of infighting among citizens.
Quick response
In response to the situation, Indonesia should not just wait under the looming maneuvers of each side. Indonesia must ramp up its intelligence and open its eyes and ears to understand the map and trends of the competing powers in the region.
Focusing on domestic issues and terrorism should not divert its attention from strategic issues in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia must recognize its vulnerability as a geographically strategic and resource-rich nation, as well as how it can determine the ideological direction of the region.
Every maneuver of Western and Eastern powers can impact Indonesia’s agendas on economic-political development and national sovereignty. Do not allow us to be careless and unable to anticipate changes to the situation.
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Towards this end, Indonesia must do three things. First, Indonesia must implement a free and active foreign policy in its interaction with any power, as long as they are not a threat to us.
The dominance of a single power will almost certainly not benefit the national interest. In the past, Japan ruled the Asia-Pacific because the Allies had been late in anticipating Japan’s intent for domination.
Today, China has wrested economic dominance in the Indo-Pacific. If there is no balance, China can co-opt the strengths of the countries in the region. They might become a “cash cow” for supporting its economic power and political influence.
Indonesia must therefore maintain its independence and reduce its economic-political dependence so it does not collapse amid the fight between the two powerhouses.
Didie SW
Central axis
Second, apart from intensive communication with the two powers, Indonesia needs to use diplomacy to build a central axis. Indonesia must take a more friendly and pro-democratic approach in international relations so it is not a threat to anyone.
Indonesia must be more active in its cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, especially those involved in the South China Sea dispute. Indonesia can also turn to New Zealand for cooperation.
Despite being a member of the Five Eyes, the five-way intelligence alliance with the US, the UK, Australia and Canada, the “Kiwi Country” has opposed the AUKUS nuclear pact. In 1984, New Zealand quit ANZUS in protest against the US, which deployed its nuclear submarines in the Pacific.
The central axis is an alliance expected to tip the power balance against every maneuver by either of the two powers, AUKUS and China.
Third, all national components must maintain unity and solidarity. Do not be easily divided to end up in reciprocal animosity (devide et impera) as a result of any one influence.
Achieving programs intended for the national interest must be guarded together. Exploitation of the country’s resources by foreign countries under the pretext of investment must be reexamined.
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Investment is definitely imperative, but it must benefit both parties, not only in terms of knowledge transfer and profit sharing, but also sustainability.
Foreign entities should not exploit and cause harm to the environment, which in the end, will only be a burden for us. Therefore, involving communities as the rightful beneficiaries of resources is necessary. Do not ignore history, said Bung Karno, one of the founding fathers of our nation.
In addition, we must not forget the hundreds of years of colonization by the Dutch East India Company (VOC), which initially arrived to invest and do business with us.
We have a constitutional responsibility to protect the country from the "conflict" between the two powerhouses at odds with each other. Indonesia must be able to capitalize on the negotiation space by using all relevant elements to gain a “strategic advantage”.
In this way, we will be able to turn threats into great opportunities that herald national awakening.
Iftitah Suryanagara, CEO & Founder of Romeo Strategic Consulting; Alumnus of US Army Command & General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, USA.
This article was translated by Musthofid.
