Defining Jokowi\'s legacy
Jokowi\'s potential legacy, built through his hard work, must serve as the foundation for his successors in guiding the people towards not only greater advancement, but also a more civilized and dignified nation.
Only three years are left in the working period of the Cabinet of the Joko Widodo-Ma\'ruf Amin administration. Allowing for political hype in the buildup to the 2024 general elections, the current administration has at most 15 working months left. What should be prioritized in the remaining time?
A hectic political agenda may take up much of its focus, but President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his Cabinet must not get their priorities wrong, given that technocracy in development is as important as politics in governance. Both will become Jokowi\'s legacy in his efforts to fulfill his political promises.
How he does this will determine how he is remembered: as an extraordinary leader or merely an average one.
Political promises
Jokowi’s political promises, known as Nawacita, are manifested in the national development plans. The first stage of Nawacita was outlined in the 2015-2019 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN), and Jokowi was seen working hard at trying to fulfill his promises.
Focusing on tackling poverty and bridging the gap between Java and outside Java, the Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla administration pulled on all resources in terms of personnel, the rural community and the infrastructure development programs.
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As a result, infrastructure developed rapidly throughout the country. Economic growth showed stable performance of around 5 percent. Inflation hovered at 2.72 percent. Unemployment dropped to 5.3 percent. Poverty fell below double digits for the first time to 9.41 percent, and the Gini coefficient measuring inequality fell to 0.381.
Critics made footnotes in the fields of law, human rights and the environment, but overall Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla worked hard to fulfill their 2014-2019 promises.
In the second stage, with Vice President Mar\'uf Amin, Jokowi raised five visions: economic transformation, continued infrastructure development, human resource development, bureaucratic reform and eased licensing.
In addition, he decided to move the nation’s capital city to East Kalimantan and prepared the 2026-2045 National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) as part of his vision for foundational strengthening to realize Indonesia’s dream of becoming the world\'s fourth or fifth largest economy by 2045.
However, Covid-19 hit the country. From March 2020 to mid-September 2021, more than 4.1 million people were infected and 138,000 died. More than half of total deaths was recorded as of July 2021.
Development progress was dealt a severe blow. By the end of 2020, economic growth had plunged to minus 2.07 percent. Unemployment increased to 7.07 percent, and poverty reverted back into the double digits with 10.19 percent.
Progress in the framework of Jokowi-Amin\'s promises was impacted. Of the five visions, progress in infrastructure development may still be on track, though it has slowed somewhat. Economic transformation and human resource development have evidently been disrupted.
Bureaucratic reform and eased licensing as mandated in the Job Creation Law are yet to proceed optimally. The preparations for relocating the capital have also been hampered, not only in terms of infrastructure, but also the complex task of relocating the state civil service (ASN) from Jakarta.
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What once seemed to be the government\'s hesitancy in prioritizing public health over the economy at the start of the pandemic actually reflected its uncertainty over whether these promises could be fulfilled. After all, the fulfillment of political promises is the key to winning public trust.
Therefore, all these promises – the five visions, the draft RPJPN, the relocation of the capital city and the ongoing pandemic handling – must be pursued through to their realization by preparing a road map.
This must be done without delay and in a more effective way. It cannot be just “business as usual”; otherwise, the work programs will not be optimal and Jokowi\'s promises will not be realized.
So how?
Work organization is required to create a legacy. First, the five visions must have key target. Of course, this is the President’s prerogative. I\'m just making a suggestion. The important thing is that the target must be realistic in face of remaining work period.
First, infrastructure development must be implemented as a framework to increase connectivity, encourage productivity and overcome the gap between Java and non-Java regions.
Second, economic transformation should be directed towards building a competitive and productive economic base by stimulating investment in the productive sector, providing incentives for MSMEs and the informal sector, enhancing poverty alleviation and rural development.
Third, human resource development must be directed to avoid the demographic trap that could lead to the productive population becoming unproductive. This could be done by making efforts to improve the quality of health and education and ensuring equal social protection for all citizens.
Fourth, the policy on simplified licensing must aim at increasingly easing doing business.
Fifth, bureaucratic reform must increase governance capacity (Kompas, 14/7/2021) through a merit-based system, ASN capacity development, and an improved government employee database.
Realizing these five visions is crucial and the President must directly manage their execution, given the increasing political trend of Cabinet ministers affiliated with political parties or harboring vested political interests becoming distracted. As such, they may need to be appointed technocratic deputies.
Covid-19 mitigation and economic recovery should move along the transition scenario from a pandemic to an endemic. A road map is thus needed for implementing the appropriate epidemiological, economic, and social interventions.
To this end, three measured steps require immediate execution: suppression, stabilization and normalization.
The number of cases and deaths must be suppressed. The scale of transmission must be controlled to create a stable condition that enables the reopening of socioeconomic activities. The normalization period requires on-site surveillance to ensure people can live normal lives (Alliance of Indonesian Scientists for Pandemic Solution, 2021).
The government\'s move to shift the priority of the 2022 state budget (RAPBN) from infrastructure to human resource development should be appreciated.
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The infrastructure budget is only Rp 384.8 trillion compared to Rp 255.3 trillion for public health, Rp 427.5 trillion for social protection, and Rp 541.7 trillion for education.
This is the most prudent move and most realistic option. Some suspected the government of hesitancy in prioritizing pandemic mitigation over fears of potential economic and political impacts.
However, 17 months of the pandemic has taught us that if the government does not prioritize pandemic handling, the situation will lead to economic and political crises. The challenge lies in the measures that are implemented.
Lengthy and convoluted bureaucracy does not help in critical and urgent situations. The delays in delivering social assistance, incentives to health facilities and compensation for families of the health workers who died, as well as the stuttering vaccination rollout, are evidence of an as yet unreformed bureaucracy.
The idea on the need for a crisis-managing institution, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States, may later grow into a meaningful legacy.
This does not necessarily require forming a new institution, and could be done by strengthening the Health Ministry’s prevention and control (P2P) directorate general or designating the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) as the highest authority during crises and disasters.
Third, the plan to move the nation’s capital must proceed by taking into account the dynamics of the pandemic. Since its announcement in a state address on 16 Aug. 2019, no concrete steps have been taken. The public is beginning to doubt whether the plan will go ahead. In fact, the bureaucracy needs certainty to drive action.
If it is decided that the capital city relocation plan will go ahead, the development of physical infrastructure must be prioritized, monitored and tightly controlled. To relocate entire ministries and state institutions, along with thousands of their employees, will require the extraordinary support of physical infrastructure. The timeline must be clear on what to do, when and how.
If it is decided that the capital city relocation plan will be postponed (not cancelled), an adequate narrative of the reasons must be provided to ensure that the next administration executes the capital city relocation plan. Whatever the decision, the regulatory and institutional frameworks must be in place. The capital city relocation bill must be finalized with utmost urgency and the Capital City Authority Agency be established immediately.
Addressing these challenges means the President must prepare a plan that identifies the mission and priority programs.
Lastly, the Jokowi administration has a unique advantage in that it has formulated the Indonesia Vision 2045 while preparing a government road map. Therefore, completing the 2026-2045 RPJPN as part of the road map to Indonesia Vision 2045 must be the President’s focus.
The RPJPN should give clear directions and a firm framework to becoming a developed country. It must address a number of the nation\'s key challenges across at least eight issues: low social mobility, rapid urbanization, economic tertiarization, climate change, food security, natural resource management, energy security, and institutional quality (Knowledge and Innovation Ecosystem, 2020).
Addressing these challenges means the President must prepare a plan that identifies the mission and priority programs.
Moving forward
As time is pressing, there is a need for systematic and direct control over these would-be legacies. First, the President must be able to coordinate directly with officials at the technical level to ensure progress on the promised programs, which are seen as key but have not been executed well.This applies to in three areas. One is bureaucratic reform. Three years is enough to realign the competencies development curriculum of government employees, improve employee data to establish a talent pool, increase bureaucratic responsiveness in pandemic handling, and work out functional positions as a result of bureaucratic easing. These four quick wins will boost bureaucratic performance.
Two is the integration of social assistance programs as part of social protection and public services reform based on the citizen identification number (NIK). This policy that was first raised in 2016 must be realized, or at least begin its realization. The integrated social protection scheme must be completed by mid-2022 and can be trialed in 2022-2023 before the term of office ends.
Three is National Talent Management (MTN) as part of human resource development. The President\'s promise for a breakthrough national talent must be realized. The grand design and institutional proposals must be completed by the end of 2021, with the budget to be approved in the 2022 RAPBN towards realization in 2022-2023.
There are actually many other things that have not been explored, including legal reform, human rights improvement, protection of freedom of expression, environmental conservation, and renewable energy transition.
Not all can be realized by the end of 2024, but the President’s direct attention will give weight and accelerate progress.
Second, progress on all government programs needs objective assessment. Independent research institutions, civil society, business associations, and nongovernmental organizations can start preparing the tools to measure the government\'s performance at the end of Jokowi\'s term.
There will definitely be discrepancies between the achievements that are claimed and the evaluation results. However, this is necessary, even essential, to maintain objectivity and build credibility.
Third, all government achievements need to be reported as knowledge records. The public needs to know what requires following up from the previous government, what progress the new government makes, and what is to be prepared for the next government.
This is important, because appreciating the achievements of the previous government and the follow-up initiatives of the next government will gauge the quality of Jokowi\'s statesmanship.
A true legacy is not just a record of the past, but a provision for stepping towards the future. Jokowi\'s potential legacy, built through his hard work, must serve as the foundation for his successors in guiding the people towards not only greater advancement, but also a more civilized and dignified nation.
Yanuar Nugroho, Advisor to Center for Innovation Policy & Governance; Researcher at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; ALMI members; Deputy II Chief of Staff to the President (2015-2019)
This article is translated by Musthofid.