Caseloads Decline, Entry Points Still Under Tight Control
Indonesia’s Covid-19 caseload is starting to decline as bed occupancy rates at hospitals are becoming more controllable. However, a potential spike in cases is still on the surveillance radar.
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KOMPAS TEAM
·4 minutes read
Kompas/Wawan H Prabowo
Residents thronged Jalan Asemka, West Jakarta, to hunt for various children\'s toys, Sunday (12/9/2021). During the extension of the level 3 community activity restriction (PPKM), many traders and visitors in the area are still reluctant to carry out the Covid-19 prevention health protocol properly and correctly.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS – The declining trend in Covid-19 transmission can be seen in the number of new cases, hospitality rate and fatality rate, all of which are falling.
New cases of Covid-19 reportedly stood at 14.7 per 100,000 population per week, the hospitalization rate at 7.35 patients per 100,000 population per week, and the fatality rate at 1.19 deaths per 100,000 population per week.
In addition, the ratio of the number of tests to those returning positive results, known as the positivity rate, reached 4.23 percent per week. A ratio of below 5 percent is in accordance with the threshold set by the World Health Organization (WHO).
“With the pressure on hospitals starting to ease, our current strategy is focused on the upstream area. We will increase testing, tracing and isolation. Tracing efforts must also be strengthened at the country’s entrance gates to prevent the entry of new variants of Covid-19," Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said during a working meeting with House of Representatives Commission IX in Jakarta on Monday (13/9/2021).
Heightened surveillance at entry points is seen as an urgent anticipatory measure against a potential spike in cases due to the importation of new Covid-19 variants from overseas.
Surveillance has focused mainly on the Lambda and Mu variants, classed as “variant of interest (VOI)” by the WHO. The two coronavirus variants are feared to be able to evade the body\'s immune system, making vaccines less effective.
The government is seeking to limit the number of entry points on land, sea and air routes, in addition to imposing a minimum eight-day mandatory quarantine. Administering tests for entry and exit are also provisioned.
KOMPAS/COKORDA YUDISTIRA
The government has allowed malls, shopping centers and tourist sites in Bali to be opened to visitors but with strict implementation of the Covid-19 prevention health protocol. The use of the PeduliLindungi application and barcode scanning is mandatory for both visitors and mall employees. The atmosphere at the entrance to a mall in Denpasar City, Thursday (9/9/2021).
These measures aim to prevent the entry of new variants as had happened previously.
"The other day, we somehow let our guard down on the sea. Many ships carrying goods came in and their crews disembarked, [and they] turned out to be carrying the Delta variant," the health minister said.
Anticipatory measures also include ensuring the availability of hospital beds, oxygen, and other health infrastructure. The Covid-19 drug supply is now estimated to be sufficient until the end of this month.
The number of people who have received their second jabs to achieve full vaccination has reached 42.3 million, still 20.3 percent of the target.
2022 scenario
The government has been preparing a Covid-19 handling strategy for 2022, when the current pandemic is likely to develop into an endemic. The strategy has also been adopted to anticipate potential spikes in cases.
For the endemic scenario, Covid-19 testing is expected to cover 28 million people, while 58 million people are to be tested in the caseload spike scenario. The available treatment and isolation facilities are expected to meet 20 percent and 80 percent of cases, respectively.
"Vaccination in 2022 will [use] domestically produced vaccines. We are also planning to administer third jabs, but the government will bear the cost only for community members who are assistance beneficiaries,” said Budi.
RUSMAN - BIRO PERS SEKRETARIAT PRESIDEN
President Joko Widodo greets students taking vaccinations in Sukoharjo Regency, Central Java, Monday (13/9/2021).
Overshooting threats
Covid-19 vaccination in West Java, which is targeting 37.9 million recipients, is expected to finish by the end of December 2021. However, with less than four months remaining in the year, the vaccination rollout has reached only 31.95 percent for the first dose and 16.49 percent for the second dose.
"On a calculation of only 180,000 [doses] per day, [the vaccination program] will not end until July 2022," said Dedi Supandi, the West Java Covid-19 task force’s head of vaccine acceleration.
In order to boost the vaccination rate, the provincial government has requested a monthly supply of 15 million vaccine doses from the central government. However, the request has yet to be approved.
Nationwide, among the areas with highest second-dose coverage are DKI Jakarta (68.8 percent), Bali (53.6 percent) and the Riau Islands (32.0 percent). The areas with the lowest coverage include Lampung (7.8 percent), West Nusa Tenggara (9.1 percent), and West Sumatra (9.4 percent).
A recent study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that unvaccinated people were 4.5 times more likely to be infected, 10 times more likely to need hospitalization, and 11 times more likely to die from Covid-19. The study tracked more than 600,000 Covid-19 cases across 13 states from April to mid-July, when the Delta variant caused a spike in cases.
Don\'t get too carried away by ignoring or violating the [health] protocols that might risk a resurgence in transmission.
Epidemiologist Windhu Purnomo at Airlangga University in Surabaya, East Java, said that officials and the public still needed to be vigilant amid the decline in cases.
"Don\'t get too carried away by ignoring or violating the [health] protocols that might risk a resurgence in transmission," he said. (TAN/AIK/TAM/RTG/BRO/WKM)
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