Crisis

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Mural about wearing mask during pandemic covid-19 in East Jakarta, Sunday (13/6/2021).

The COVID-19 crisis needs to be understood carefully before finding the right solution – a solution that is neither overdone nor half-hearted. Restrictions on public activities or lockdowns require enormous sacrifices from all parties. This is only needed if the emergency situation demands it.

How do we know when the COVID-19 outbreak demands a lockdown? When can a lockdown be eased? The numbers of infected cases, cures or deaths alone are not enough to explain the pandemic situation. Twenty people arriving from abroad, testing positive and being immediately quarantined are no more worrying than just two positive cases due to local transmission.

Two local positive cases resulting from the testing of 1,000 people have different risks than two cases resulting from the testing of half of the 1,000 people. Five cases among people who are currently in isolation because they have had close contact are less worrying than two local positive cases but with no information about when or where they contracted it. In the latter case, it is also unclear how many people and who in particular were also exposed to the same source. The virus is free to spread through those who have contracted it without feeling symptoms.

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Two infected people without isolation can easily infect other people in any place they visit. The number can be perhaps dozens of people. These dozens of people have the chance to infect people at home when they return home from the office or co-workers or anyone in a public place they visit. In a day or two, the total number can double.

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

Three motorists, including a relatively older man without a mask, pass by a banner installed by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on Jl. Rawa Mekar Jaya in Serpong, Tangerang, Monday (7/9/2020). The KPU’s banner reminds the public to comply with the Covid-19 health protocol during the 2020 regional elections, which has seen large crowds of hundreds of supporters flout public health and safety measures to cheer on their preferred candidates. Many fear that the simultaneous regional elections will give rise to multiple clusters of Covid-19 infection, even as Indonesia continues to see a daily increase in new cases

The numbers of positive cases are often scattered. Regardless of the magnitude or accuracy of the numbers, what is troubling is the lack of contextual information. For each case, data on the source of transmission, the place and time of their close contact and a map of their mobility since contracting the virus are required. If the problem is not clear, how can you find a solution?

The coronavirus, especially the Delta variant, is spreading very fast. Therefore, contact tracing information must arrive faster than the spread of the virus. Tracing is not easy or cheap for dozens of cases in a city with a population of tens of thousands. Imagine if there were thousands of cases with millions of people.

That is about the difficulty of collecting data. Even with complete and accurate data, the outbreak will not be under control without testing, isolation, treatment and possibly a lockdown, in addition to vaccinations. Each of the aforementioned measures is complex, expensive and must involve many non-medical fields.

Even with complete and accurate data, the outbreak will not be under control without testing, isolation, treatment and possibly a lockdown, in addition to vaccinations.

In addition to hard work, good management and speed, these measures also take a large amount of energy and funds. They also require reliable technology, information systems, expertise, political policies, public communications and the rule of law. No less important is the cooperation and mutual support of all parties. No country is fully prepared for a pandemic. However, some are more agile than others.

Kompas

A health worker holds empty vials of the Sinovac vaccine against the Covid-19 coronavirus at Meuraxa Hospital in Banda Aceh on January 15, 2021.

In some countries there is a new record of increasing public support for the government during the pandemic. In other countries what has happened is the opposite. Actually, it is unfair to judge the success or failure of a country in overcoming the pandemic based solely on government policies.

Overcoming this crisis requires a combination of two types of power. First are institutionalized and social facilities. Second is the willingness and ability of the government to utilize the available facilities, even if they are limited.

The facilities are in the form of physical infrastructure and services, including finance, technology, state bureaucracy, law and health services. Not everything can be created suddenly by one or two current governments. Some of them are the nation\'s historical heritage. However, any great facilities will be useless if ignored by an unresponsive government.

Overcoming this crisis requires a combination of two types of power. First are institutionalized and social facilities. Second is the willingness and ability of the government to utilize the available facilities, even if they are limited.

There is a government that implements a lockdown when there are less than 10 cases in its area. There are those that reject the lockdown when in their territory there are already over 1,000 cases. The reasons may vary, but these two factors play a role.

Lesson learned

Afghanistan, Lebanon, South Africa, Ethiopia, Tahiti and Myanmar are engulfed in political crises. Whoever the head of state is will find it difficult to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Britain and the United States have far better means than the majority of other countries. However, the impact of the pandemic in the two countries is among the worst in the world.

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The chance in the United States was wasted by President Trump. His successor, President Biden, mobilized the state\'s capital to the fullest to contain the pandemic, even though the epidemic was already severe. The result was pretty good.

Vietnam and New Zealand are not as well equipped as the United States. However, both of them have been role models in the world. Brazil does not have abundant means. Chances for dealing with a pandemic are limited, whoever the president is. The situation has been made worse by President Bolsonaro\'s vigorous denial of the pandemic.

Kompas/Priyombodo

A student at Al-Bayan Islamic School, Tangerang City, Banten, doing the work of the teacher while studying at home (home learning), Tuesday (17/3/2020). School students in the Jabodetabek area and several other provinces in Indonesia must study at home following the government\'s policy to temporarily close schools in an effort to prevent the transmission of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sooner or later, the COVID-19 crisis will go. However, this is not the first, worst or last crisis in the world. In time, another crisis will come and go. Can we learn the best lessons from this disaster? Can we admit our shortcomings and improve ourselves to be better prepared for the next crisis?

Crises make clear the things that were previously vague or deliberately ignored by the people. Crises also open up opportunities for change. However, there is no guarantee it will change for the better. There is no guarantee that we will become wiser.

Ideally, the world would be united against this globalized virus. In reality, the world is confined by narrow nationalism. Most of the war against COVID-19 is taking place within a country divided by populist politics based on religion, race or ethnicity.

Ideally, the world would be united against this globalized virus. In reality, the world is confined by narrow nationalism.

The situation in Indonesia is not the same as in all the countries mentioned above. However, there is a common question for all nations. What infrastructure is lacking in society to deal with serious crises? To what extent is the government agile or indecisive in taking advantage of the available facilities?

What social conditions that have so far been hidden or ignored in society are now being exposed nakedly because of the COVID-19 crisis? If we are willing and able to take lessons from this crisis and rush to improve the condition of society for future generations, the suffering of the victims of the pandemic will not be completely in vain.

Ariel Heryanto, Emeritus Professor from Monash University, Australia

(This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswoko)