Surge in Cases Unstoppable

The number of Covid-19 cases in a number of regions has increased significantly. This is in line with the high mobility of the population during the Idul Fitri holidays.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

Officers record data on residents who will take the antigen test at the Kalideres Police Office, West Jakarta, Thursday (20/5/2021). The test is intended for residents who return to Jakarta after mudik (going home).

TEGAL, KOMPAS — The surge in Covid-19 patients after Idul Fitri has begun in a number of regions. This condition needs to be anticipated by strengthening efforts to examine, trace and mitigate the cases so that the patients are treated immediately to prevent the disease from worsening.

When compared to the number of cases, the death rate related to Covid-19 in Indonesia is high, indicating the existence of a problem in testing capacity. According to the Covid-19 Mitigation Task Force, Thursday (20/5/2021), the addition of daily Covid-19 cases in Indonesia was 5,797 people and the addition of deaths was 218 people. In comparison, in Malaysia the addition of daily cases reached 6,806 and the addition of fatalities was 59.

The Covid-19 death rate compared to the number of cases in Indonesia is 2.77 percent, higher than the global average of 2.07 percent. The increase in the number of Covid-19 patients has led to the depletion of patient beds in health facilities. At Mitra Siaga Hospital, Tegal regency, Central Java, for example, on Thursday, 22 of the 26 beds were filled.

Also read:

> Millions of People have Gone on ‘Mudik’

> Celebrating Idul Fitri, Building Solidarity

The head of the Tegal Health Office, Hendadi Setiadji, said that the post-Lebaran (Idul Fitri) increase in Covid-19 cases was dominated by family clusters, intercity travelers and mudik (exodus) travelers. "We are preparing an addition of 41 beds," he said.

The surge in the number of cases was also triggered by neglect of health protocols, as happening in Surabaya. More than 5,000 vehicles were prohibited from entering Surabaya during the Lebaran ban on May 6-17, 2021. The water tourism attraction in Kenjeran Park was closed due to the large crowds. Mass vaccination at the Grand City shopping center was also temporarily suspended because participants were not disciplined in adhering to health protocols.

KOMPAS/NIKSON SINAGA

Visitor activities at the Plaza Medan Fair in Medan, North Sumatra, Sunday (17/5/2021). In the midst of an increase in Covid-19 cases, a number of public places are increasingly being visited by residents.

In Aceh Province, in May 2021 there were 1,570 people who were exposed to Covid-19. The surge of cases made it difficult for Aceh to curb the spread of cases. According to the spokesman for the Aceh Covid-19 Task Force, Saifullah Abdulgani, the addition of cases was almost evenly distributed in regencies/cities.

The increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in North Sumatra is not only happening in the center of Medan City. Therefore, the Deli Serdang Covid-19 Task Force disseminated information about the dangers of Covid-19 by bringing coffins and ambulances to villages in Deli Serdang. In North Tapanuli, traditional parties are prohibited and one hamlet was quarantined because half of the residents were positive for Covid-19.

Meanwhile, the Balikpapan City Government is increasing rapid antigen testing for people arriving through the airports and ports in Balikpapan.

Also read:

> Indonesia’s Situation Can Get as Bad as India’s

> Anticipating COVID-19 in the Regions

Excess deaths

So far the Covid-19 pandemic has killed 3.43 million people worldwide as of Thursday (20/5). The death toll during the pandemic was estimated to be much higher as a new study found there were 1 million excess deaths in 29 developed countries by 2020. The number of excess deaths in developing countries, including Indonesia, could be higher.

The finding of excess deaths related to the Covid-19 pandemic were reported in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) today. Excess mortality is understood as the total deaths in a region over a given period compared to the annual average. This method is considered the most accurate at assessing the impact of a pandemic on the population.

The study, led by Nazrul Islam of the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK, examined mortality in high-income countries, such as the United States, South Korea, New Zealand, Britain and other European countries.

Kompas/AGUS SUSANTO

Aerial photo of the Covid-19 protocol burial ground at the Padurenan Public Cemetery (TPU), Bekasi City, West Java, Wednesday (4/14/2021).

Using a mathematical model, they calculated the 2020 weekly excess mortality in each of the studied countries, including differences in age and sex. They then compared it with the trend of mortality in the country over the previous five years.

There were 979,000 total excess deaths in 2020 in the 29 countries that were analyzed. All countries experienced excess mortality, except for New Zealand, Norway and Denmark. "The five countries with the highest number of absolute excess deaths were the US (458,000 people), Britain (94,400 people), Italy (89,100 people), Spain (84,100 people), and Poland (60,100 people)," said Nazrul.

In developing countries, the excess death rate could be 10 times as much.

The total number of excess deaths was concentrated in persons aged 75 years or older, followed by the 65-74 year age group. In most countries, the excess death toll exceeds the number of deaths reported from Covid-19. In the US and UK, for example, the estimate of excess deaths was about 30 percent higher than the reported death toll from Covid-19.

The Indonesian epidemiologist at Griffith University, Dicky Budiman, said this study shows the large impact of deaths during the pandemic, which were not recorded due to the limited number of tests or reporting matters. "In developing countries, the excess death rate could be 10 times as much," he said.

In Indonesia is suspected of having very high excess deaths because the category of deaths due to Covid-19 is only confirmed by test results, while the number of tests is very limited. (AIK/XTI/NSA/CIP/AIN/BRO/RTG)

This article was translated by Hyginus Hardoyo.