Tropical cyclone seeds were observed above the Indian Ocean, south of West Java and southwest of Bengkulu. This means heavy rains may hit a number of areas in the country from April 9 to 10.
By
KOMPAS TEAM
·5 minutes read
JAKARTA, KOMPAS -- Tropical cyclone Seroja is moving away from the mainland of East Nusa Tenggara, but the weather in Indonesia is still volatile due to the presence of two cyclone seeds above the Indian Ocean. Learning from the Seroja cyclone, Indonesia must strengthen its tropical cyclone early warning system and integrate it with community responses.
Data from the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) on Thursday evening (8/4/2021) show 163 people died and 45 people are missing as a result of the disaster in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT). NTT Governor Viktor Bungtilu Laiskodat declared an emergency status in the province from 6 April to 5 May 2021. The emergency status related to tropical cyclones, floods, landslides and tidal waves in the province was based on the impact of the tropical cyclone Seroja in Kupang municipality and 21 regencies in NTT from 2 to 5 April 2021.
Based on the report of the Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Seroja on Thursday (8/4) was located around coordinates 16.3 South Latitude and 112, 6 East Longitude, about 890 kilometers south or southwest of Denpasar, Bali. Seroja is moving southwest away from Indonesian territory at a speed of 33 km per hour.
However, at the same time, according to the head of the BMKG’s Center for Public Meteorology, Fachri Radjab, two cyclone seeds were
observed, namely 90S and 91S. Cyclone seeds of 90S were observed around the Indian Ocean south of West Java, precisely at 15.8 South Latitude and 105.7 East Longitude. "In the next 24 hours, 90S has the potential to become a tropical cyclone in high category, but the position is far from Indonesia," said Fachri.
Satellite images show significant convective cloud formation around the center of the 90S low pressure system. Meanwhile, the cyclone 91S seeds are located above the Indian Ocean to the southwest of Bengkulu, to be precise at 9.7 South Latitude and 93 East Longitude. "For the 91S, the chances of it becoming a tropical cyclone are relatively low," said Fachri.
With this development, the BMKG warned that from 9 to 10 April, heavy rains could hit a number of areas. Regions with flood alert status include Jakarta, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, NTT, North Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Southeast Sulawesi, Maluku, West Papua and Papua.
Eastern area still vulnerable
Most of these tropical cyclones hit and moved along the eastern area of Indonesia in April.
A meteorological researcher of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (Lapan), Suaydhi, warned that in April tropical cyclones could still potentially hit southern Indonesian waters, particularly in the Banda Sea and Arafura Sea. From 1983 to 2019, 10 tropical cyclones were formed in these waters.
"Most of these tropical cyclones hit and moved along the eastern area of Indonesia in April. In fact, some occurred until early May," he said.
Climate change and meteorology expert from the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Edvin Aldrian, said that, learning from the Seroja cyclone, Indonesia must strengthen its integrated tropical cyclone early warning system. "Cyclone Seroja is clearly an anomaly, but the potential for future occurrence is getting higher due to climate change," he said.
BMKG weather early warning subdivision coordinator, Agie Wandala Putra, said the BMKG operated the TCWC that can predict cyclone patterns until they become cyclone seeds seven days in advance. Meanwhile, the process of cyclone seeds becoming tropical cyclones can be predicted three days in advance.
However, Agie added, the early warning issued by the TCWC has not been integrated with other institutions, both at the national and regional levels. This is different from the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS), which is integrated between the BMKG as the agency issuing the early warning, the BNPB and the local administrations that have the authority to issue public evacuation orders.
Distribute aid immediately
In Larantuka, East Flores, NTT, National Disaster Mitigation Agency head Doni Monardo ordered his team to speed up the distribution of aid to disaster victims on Adonara Island, East Flores. He reminded that aid should not be piled up in certain locations.
"[Social] assistance must be in the hands of the victim quickly and precisely. The distribution chain is carried out as simply and concisely as possible,” said Doni. In order to help disaster victims in NTT, the Kompas Humanitarian Fund has provided assistance in the form of various basic necessities and personal needs, such as materials and blankets, totalling two trucks in the first phase. One truck will depart from Maumere on Friday afternoon for Larantuka. This trip will continue by boat to Adonara.
As for another truck, it is being prepared to go to Lembata and Alor for the time being. The provision of assistance will continue in the coming weeks. In an official statement, President Joko Widodo\'s personal secretary Anggit Nugroho said the Palace had prepared 15,000 basic food packages for disaster victims in NTT, 13,000 food packages were also prepared for disaster victims in Bima, NTB.
Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto and National Police chief Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo, for example, inspected the disaster-hit areas in NTB and NTT. They are ensuring that the aid reaches the people who need it.