Covid-19 ‘Micro-spreader’ Phenomenon

A plague or an outbreak of disease is essentially a social phenomenon, a situation in which a pathogen or carrier moves and spreads disease only when a group of people actively interact with one another. These interactions are what we call social relations, the foundation of every society.

In the beginning, the Covid-19 pandemic was indeed triggered by a natural event that led to the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Somehow, through interspecies contact, this variety of coronavirus jumped from animal cells to human cells. Furthermore, the coronavirus easily piggybacked on social relations to reproduce at a massive scale through society. Thanks to globalization, the coronavirus then spread around the world at high speed and devastated the global economy.

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SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is unique in that it has a crown with a protein structure that allows it to attach easily to human cells in the upper respiratory tract. What is more interesting is that the coronavirus spreads by following a certain social pattern. In the early days of the pandemic, several researches found evidence that most cases of infection were transmitted by a few who had Covid-19.

These people are referred to as “superspreaders”, or individuals who have contracted the coronavirus and are able to infect other people in large numbers. This means that a superspreader plays a crucial social role in increasing the curve of transmission.

This superspreader phenomenon is one of the characteristics of Covid-19 that has not been found in previous outbreaks of disease. No data is yet available that shows the average number of cases a superspreader can cause.

The researchers concluded that 80 percent of Covid-19 cases are caused by 20 percent of people carrying the virus, in accordance with the Pareto principle.

However, the data from several recent studies show that Covid-19 transmission tends to follow what is known as the Pareto principle, after the famous Italian sociologist and economist Vilfredo Pareto. The researchers concluded that 80 percent of Covid-19 cases are caused by 20 percent of people carrying the virus, in accordance with the Pareto principle.

This means that majority of people who have the virus infect only a very small number of other people, while the minority group of superspreaders makes a significant contribution to overall transmission. It could be said that these superspreaders are an "elite" group possessing transmissibility that is far above the average. This superspreader theory has been confirmed by empirical data from Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China.

Knowledge about the superspreader phenomenon is very important for efforts in various parts of the world to mitigate Covid-19. One implication is prohibiting large crowds of people in a certain location, as such activities carry a very high risk of transmission if even one participant is a superspreader, especially if this social activity occurs in a closed, narrow venue.

KOMPAS/ABDULLAH FIKRI ASHRI

Civil servants dressed as the punakawan (comical characters in Javanese wayang) Semar, Petruk and Gareng distribute information on the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) to shopkeepers on Jl. Kangraksan in Cirebon municipality, West Java, Tuesday (12/5/2020).

A year since the pandemic emerged, things have changed. We know that the coronavirus has mutated many times to produce new variants. These changes have occurred not only in the virus’s molecular structure, but also in the pattern of transmission in society, especially in Indonesia.

New phase of transmission

Initially, the superspreader phenomenon was a reference for the government to make an effort to reduce the rate of community transmission. However, given the large number of cases and extent of transmission in the past month, I am concerned that Covid-19 transmission in Indonesia, especially in Java, has entered a new phase in which the superspreader phenomenon has slowly and surely been replaced by the “micro-spreader” phenomenon.

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From a sociological perspective, micro-spreaders are ordinary people. They are not "elite" like superspreaders in the sense that they do not have the ability to infect large numbers of people. They infect others in relatively smaller numbers of perhaps two or three.

Imagine four individual groups of an extended family that have one or two carriers of the coronavirus among them, who will then unintentionally become micro-spreaders within this large family.

The problem is, these micro-spreaders are large in number and they are everywhere. They are the people who are familiar to us and around us. They can be university friends, coworkers and family members like nephews, uncles, and siblings. Imagine four individual groups of an extended family that have one or two carriers of the coronavirus among them, who will then unintentionally become micro-spreaders within this large family.

The micro-spreader phenomenon is very difficult to trace, let alone stop, because it involves deep social bonds, namely close connections between individuals in a community. In this dimension, the spread of the virus is linked to a culture that shapes the daily behavior of Indonesian society, namely the culture of reluctance.

KOMPAS/MACHRADIN WAHYUDI RITONGA

A health worker checks the temperature of a car passenger at a check point as part of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) enforcement on Jl. Dr Djunjunan, Bandung municipality, on Wednesday (22/4/2020). For the next 14 days, people have been told to follow the restrictions to break the transmission of COVID-19 in Greater Bandung.

This is the tendency of Indonesians, especially in Java, to avoid confrontation as a way to respect others. And herein lies the problem, because this reluctance can have implications in terms of vulnerability to contracting the coronavirus.

Imagine if a family member or a close friend visits. The host would be reluctant to ask their guest to keep their face mask on and maintain physical distance. Such requests could be deemed impolite, because it makes it appear as though the host does not trust their guest. This culture of reluctance makes private spaces into a "contact zone" that carries a high risk of Covid-19 transmission. In this culture of reluctance, micro-spreaders are free to move and infect others.

On a broader scale, the micro-spreader phenomenon can emerge to become widespread and very difficult to contain. It continues to grow and move rapidly, because they are not identified by conventional methods of pandemic surveillance.

The water molecules are like the micro-spreaders that carry the coronavirus, spreading through every part of the closely connected fabric of Indonesian society.

In this circumstance, Indonesian society is like a sheet of fabric that falls into a puddle of water. The water molecules instantly seep into the fabric and soak through it. The water molecules are like the micro-spreaders that carry the coronavirus, spreading through every part of the closely connected fabric of Indonesian society.

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What causes this micro-spreader phenomenon to emerge? The answer is simple. For months, Indonesia has failed to implement effective pandemic surveillance. The minimal number of tests it administers and the half-hearted contact tracing efforts are fully responsible for the emergence of micro-spreaders in the country.

So, what can we do about it? We know that the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) has been ineffective at stemming the rate of transmission. Therefore, the central government must take another strategic decision than just the PSBB, and one that is much more effective. Otherwise, Indonesia will see an explosion in its fatality rate that we have not seen to date.

RESEARCH.NTU.EDU.SG

Sulfikar Amir

Sulfikar Amir, Associate Professor and Expert in Sociology of Disaster, Nanyang Technological University

(This article was translated by Kurniawan H. Siswoko).