Mt. Merapi Eruption Predicted to Not Be As Big As in 2010

KOMPAS/NINO CITRA ANUGRAHANTO

A number of Kalitengah Lor residents, especially women and children, fled to refugee barracks, Glagaharjo Village Hall, Cangkringan District, Sleman Regency, Tuesday (10/11/2020).

SLEMAN, KOMPAS - Residents living on the western slope of Mount Merapi in Sleman regency, Yogyakarta, have been warned about the threat of volcanic eruption with deformation at the volcano leading west. Though eruption is possible, it is predicted that it will not be as big as the eruption in 2010.

The Geological Disaster Technology Research and Development Center (BPPTKG) raised the alert advisory status of Merapi from level two to level three on Thursday last week. Areas that are in danger are located within a radius of 5 kilometers from the summit of Merapi.

In Sleman, three hamlets have been included in the danger zone, namely Kalitengah Lor hamlet in Glagaharjo village, Kaliadem hamlet in Kepuharjo village, and Pelemsari hamlet in Umbulharjo village. All three hamlets are located in Cangkringan district.

Also read: Evacuation of Residents Prepared

The head of BPPTKG, Hanik Humaida, said volcanic activity of Mount Merapi was intensifying. So far, the main potential threat lies in the crater opening in the south-southeast direction, namely in the upstream of the Gendol River, Kepuharjo village, Sleman.

"There is also deformation or bloating. The magma thrust is on the west and northwest side. It is possible that the eruption will impact the area in that direction," said Hanik at the Glagaharjo village hall, Cangkringan district, Sleman, on Tuesday (10/11/2020).

Also read: 20 Volcanoes Show Increasing Activities

According to BPPTKG data, the observed average deformation rate was 12 centimeters per day on Monday (9/11). Lava avalanches occurred 35 times. In addition, shallow volcanic earthquakes also occurred 42 times, while various phases of earthquakes took place 363 times.

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

Mount Merapi seen from Tlogolele Village, Selo, Boyolali, Central Java, Tuesday (10/11/2020). Mount Merapi has been on Alert status since November 5, 2020.

Hanik said that the potential threat of danger on the west side of the slopes could be more real if the lava dome had appeared on the surface. Currently, the lava dome has not been seen. The potential for danger can be calculated from the growth rate of the lava dome.

"That is what we will use later to calculate how far the material has flown or, during an eruption, how far it will fly. We will update the recommendations later," he said.

Yogyakarta Governor Hamengkubuwono has urged residents who live on the west side of the slopes of Mount Merapi, Sleman regency, to also be aware of the threat of eruption. There are at least two sub-districts in the area, namely Turi and Pakem. The Sultan hopes that the hazard mapping could be well prepared to reduce the risk of casualties.

Also read: Residents Start to Evacuate

"A warning is needed. At least, in the west, there should be notifications that lava domes will form, "said the governor.

Sleman Regent Sri Purnomo said that mitigation efforts for Turi and Pakem districts had been prepared such as by providing evacuation barracks in the two sub-districts. However, currently, the focus of the mitigation plan is based on BPPTKG recommendations, namely in Cangkringan district.

In Glagaharjo village, Cangkringan district, the evacuation of vulnerable groups has been carried out since Saturday (7/11). According to initial estimates, at least 133 people from vulnerable groups will be evacuated. They consist of the elderly, children under five, and people with disabilities. The number of evacuees has reached 85 people. Many residents who are not from vulnerable groups also joined the evacuation because they are worried about the threat of an eruption.

A warning is needed. At least, in the west, there should be notifications that lava domes will form

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

Children from Stabelan Hamlet, Tlogolele, Selo, Boyolali, Central Java, took refuge with their families using a mini truck, Monday (9/11/2020). Residents in the vulnerable category of the hamlet, which is about 3.5 kilometers from the top of Mount Merapi, have begun to be evacuated as the danger of volcanic activity increases.

The chief executive of the Sleman Regional Disaster Management Agency, Joko Supriyanto, said that the agency would not forbid it if there were residents outside of the vulnerable groups who wanted to be evacuated. An additional barrack has been set up in Gayam hamlet, Argomulyo village, Cangkringan, with a capacity of up to 150 refugees.

"We already have data of the residents and where will they take refuge," he said.

Affecting tourism

Along with the increase in the alert status of Merapi, as many as 13 tourist attractions in Magelang regency have temporarily been closed. "The closure is indefinite. For sure, once there is a change in the status, we will make some adjustments,” said Magelang Regent Zaenal Arifin.

According to Zaenal, it is urgent to close tourist attractions for safety because not all visitors understand the emergency procedures during a volcanic eruption.

Meanwhile, a number of residents in several evacuation centers in Magelang regency began to complain of illness, such as flu, fever, cough, and itching. The local government has provided health services that operate 24 hours a day in a number of the shelters.