Outbreak Comes at Height of Demographic Bonus

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

President Joko Widodo gave a speech in the framework of the submission of the 2020 Budget State Draft Bill at the DPR Plenary Session Opening Ceremony for 2019-2020 Session Year at the Parliament Complex, Senayan, Jakarta, on Friday (16/8/2019).

"The momentum is now when we are between 2020 and 2024 at the peak of the demographic bonus period. If we focus more on developing the quality of human resources and using new methods, then I believe the demographic bonus will be a bonus for a leap in development... " -- President Jokowi\'s state speech, 16/8/2019

Since entering the demographic bonus period in 2012, Indonesia\'s dependency ratio has continued to fall below the 50 mark. This means that every 100 productive-age people bear fewer than 50 people of nonproductive age.

Statistics Indonesia’s (BPS) population projection for the 2015-2045 period, based on the 2015 Inter-Census Population Survey (SUPAS), supports the remark of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in his state speech above. Indonesia is at the top of the demographic bonus from 2020 to 2024, with a dependency ratio of 45. This period is a window of opportunity, a brief opportunity that must be exploited quickly.

This outbreak hits people from all walks of life, whether rich, middle-class or poor, and all ages from infants to the elderly, without exception.

After 2024, slowly but surely, the dependency ratio will rise. The burden of dependents of the productive-age population will increase as the dependency ratio increases. The demographic bonus is expected to end between 2038 and 2041. However, hopes and reality are not always the same. Entering 2020, the world, including Indonesia, is hit by the global outbreak of Covid-19, which poses not just a medical challenge, but also a socioeconomic one. The health crisis has turned into a humanitarian crisis that is causing a global economic and social crisis. Most activity in the world has stopped. At least 15 of the 20 largest economies in the world even face the reality of the highest number of positive cases of Covid-19. This outbreak hits people from all walks of life, whether rich, middle-class or poor, and all ages from infants to the elderly, without exception.

Also read: Post-Covid-19 Indonesia

The right strategy is needed so that during this outbreak, the window of opportunity does not turn into a door to disaster. A country is said to be successful in utilizing its demographic bonus if it is able to transform it into a welfare bonus. In essence, before the demographic bonus period ends in 2038-2041, Indonesia must be included in the group of countries of a very high Human Development Index (HDI) reading and the countries of high per-capita income. After the demographic bonus period ends, if per-capita income is high, the elderly can support themselves from savings and productive assets, rather than depending on the productive-age population. If this is realized, after 2041, we can reap a second demographic dividend.

AFP/MOHD RASFAN

AirAsia passengers walk towards the check-in counter at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport 2 in Sepang on April 29, 2020. - AirAsia resumes domestic flight operations in Malaysia on April 29, while government maintains Movement Control Order limiting activities of people as a measure to combat the spread of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus.

Mitigating the impacts of the outbreak

There are at least four main pillars to the demographic bonus, namely education, health, productivity (employment) and family planning. Efforts to mitigate the impacts of Covid-19 on all of the four are absolutely needed. The first pillar is education. At the end of March, UNESCO recorded that there were

165 countries in the world that had closed schools and campuses. More than a billion young people of the world are no longer in school. In Indonesia, more than 50 million students and students are affected, unable to attend school normally.

In response, the government, together with national education actors, needs to create several learning scenarios, designing not just online but also offline learning methods. There must still be a learning strategy without technology. Not all students have computers and internet access. Even if they do, they may not be able to finance learning with technology. If only the rich can keep learning, inequality will be even higher. During this outbreak, we must find education solutions that are continuous and inclusive.

We also need to ensure that the dropout rate does not rise. The breakdown of study time for some school-age residents, plus economic difficulties, could affect students’ motivation to continue their education. If the school dropout rate rises after the outbreak, variables of the expectation of school length of the young age population in the HDI will decrease. That will influence the overall performance of Indonesian human development. After the outbreak ends, local governments and schools must implement a "pick up the ball" strategy for students who do not return to school.

The second pillar is health. Focusing the mobilization of resources on handling Covid-19 can result in decreased resources for other health services. Immunization programs, nutrition improvement for children under five, health services for pregnant women and childbirth and the treatment of other diseases could decline. If not done proportionally, we could actually experience a decrease in post-Covid-19 health performance.

If the nutritional requirements of pregnant women and infants are not met, the risk of infant mortality increases and its impact is a reduction of life expectancy of the Indonesian population.

At least the first-level healthcare facilities (FKTP) as the front line must still provide non-Covid-19 health services, accompanied by procedures to prevent the transmission of Covid-19. The availability of food must be maintained to meet the population’s nutritional needs, especially the fulfillment of nutrition in the first 1,000 days of life, where the provision of nutrition for pregnant women, nursing mothers and children under two years is a priority. We do not want this golden generation to be ignored. If the nutritional requirements of pregnant women and infants are not met, the risk of infant mortality increases and its impact is a reduction of life expectancy of the Indonesian population.

The third pillar deals with productivity and employment. The outbreak causes additional unemployment that is difficult to avoid. Urban economic activity has contracted with the consequence of reduced employment opportunities. Based on the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) in August 2019, there were 126.5 million workers in Indonesia. Approximately 56 percent of them work in the informal sector, which is highly affected by Covid-19. At a time when decent employment is needed to enable us to transform the demographic bonus into a welfare bonus, employment opportunities are going down and unemployment is rising.

The unemployment data can be obtained during the data collection for the recipients of social aid from the government for the communities affected by Covid-19.

The government and the business world need to respond appropriately. Data on unemployment are very important. The unemployment data can be obtained during the data collection for the recipients of social aid from the government for the communities affected by Covid-19. The government needs to have better unemployment data, with names and addresses. Similar to integrated social welfare data (DTKS) for the social protection program, we need to have integrated jobseeker data. With this data, the government can map the characteristics of jobseekers, from age, sex, education and expertise up to work experience and so on. Demographic, social, economic and jobseeker information is useful for labor market planning.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

The participants prepare to take the recruitment test for prospective civil servants at the West Jakarta Mayor\'s Office, Monday (5/11/2018).

The government, together with the business world, can identify the types and sectors of work that match the qualification of our workers so that investment strategies and job creation will be more targeted. If the job opportunities being created match our workers\' qualifications and preferences, employee productivity will be better. That would be positive for economic growth and workers’ income. High productivity accelerates the transformation of the demographic bonus into a welfare bonus.

Also read: Economy in Post-Pandemic Era

The fourth pillar is related to family planning. Based on data from the 2017 Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey (SDKI), around 72 percent of married women of childbearing age use modern methods of birth control, pills and injections. The two short-term contraception methods require regular family planning services. Policies to stay at home and the limited family planning services during the outbreak have the potential to increase pregnancy and birth rates, especially for couples of childbearing age who do not participate in the family planning program. A large increase in the birth rate would increase the dependency ratio and shorten the peak demographic bonus period. Pregnancy among high-risk women could also increase maternal mortality. The National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) through counselors and medical staff must actively provide services to "pick up the ball", so that unwanted pregnancies with all the associated risks can be avoided.

Mitigating the impact of the outbreak on the four pillars of the demographic bonus is as important as the handling of Covid-19 itself. Even though the outbreak forces us to take one or two steps back, we must be optimistic. With the right policy response, we can use the peak momentum of the demographic bonus to make many advancement leaps in the post-outbreak period.

KOMPAS/FAJAR RAMADHAN

Sonny Harry B Harmadi

Sonny Harry B Harmadi, Chairperson of the Indonesian Population Coalition; Lecturer at the Department of Development Studies, School of Creative Design and Digital Business (FDKBD) of Sepuluh November Institute of Technology (ITS)