Not the Time for Us to Make Peace

President Joko Widodo has asked the people to make peace with Covid-19. Relaxation of the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) is being prepared as businesses seek to reopen their doors in July 2020.

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

Some residents do not wear masks when shopping for various needs at the Kaponan Market, Pakis, Magelang, Central Java, on  Tuesday (12/5/2020). The appeal for the use of masks should be carried out by the whole community to reduce the potential spread of the Covid-19 outbreak.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has asked the people to make peace with Covid-19. Relaxation of the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) is being prepared as businesses seek to reopen their doors in July 2020. However, seeing the still-rising number of Covid-19 cases, loose PSBB implementation and lack of testing, now is not the time for us to make peace.

Entering May 2020, countries with Covid-19 are starting to relax their social restrictions after a period of regional lockdown. These include South Korea, Thailand and several European countries such as Italy and Germany. The Covid-19 infection curves in these countries are declining.

Also read: Bus Drivers Trapped Between Hunger and Contracting Covid-19

Through his Twitter account, President Jokowi expressed a wish to follow suit on May 7. The government has been proposing the idea of “making peace with Covid-19” in the past week to reopen the economy. Flights, which had been restricted in red zones, are back in operation again. Streets in Jakarta, which had been deserted for a time, are now crowded or even jammed again. “Until we find an effective vaccine, we must live in peace with Covid-19 for the foreseeable future,” the President said.

However, are we really prepared to make peace with the epidemic? In Kompas TV’s Satu Meja talk show on Wednesday (13/5/2020), University of Indonesia epidemiologist Syahrizal Syarif said that the phrase “to make peace” was incorrectly used as it blurred the fact that Covid-19 used humans as hosts.

“The phrase ‘to make peace’ makes it seems as if Covid-19 is going to be endemic in human life and we just have to yield and live side-by-side with it for a long time. This is incorrect. We have to win the fight,” Syahrizal said in the talk show hosted by Kompas daily deputy general leader Budiman Tanuredjo.

Health Ministry daily data shows that the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases still fluctuates.

Statistical facts show that the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Indonesia continues to rise, as rapid and swab tests continue to be lacking. Health Ministry daily data shows that the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases still fluctuates. As of May 14, there were 16,006 confirmed cases with the latest daily update being 568 cases. The day before, there were 689 new cases, the highest daily update since Indonesia announced its first Covid-19 cases on March 2, 2020.

Previously, on May 12, 2020, there were 484 new cases, more than twice the 233 new cases on the previous day, May 11. Therefore, Indonesia’s Covid-19 curve is not on the decline.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

Residents who violate Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) are asked to wear a vest "PSBB Violators" and sing the Indonesia Raya song during a raid by a joint officer of the Satpol PP, TNI and Polri in Pasar Baru, Central Jakarta, on Thursday (14/5/2020)

“If the government wishes to ease PSBB measures, the indicators must be clear. If we have reached the peak and daily reports of new cases have been decreasing for up to 14 days or more, then we can ease the PSBB measures. Right now, we have not yet reached the peak. It is still ahead of us,” Syahrizal said.

On the other hand, field conditions show that the PSBB measures have not been properly implemented. “Since the beginning, we have not yet seen clear PSBB protocols and regions just do what they want. Some are really strict while others are relaxed,” he said.

This is exacerbated by inconsistent regulations, such as on the Idul Fitri mudik (exodus). At first, it was banned. Then, it was announced that there could be exceptions. Just a few days after Circular No. 4/2020 on travel restrictions for Covid-19 mitigation, airlines resumed their services.

Furthermore, land-based public transportation has also resumed operations. Streets in the capital were crowded again and traffic jams were even seen. Indonesian Transportation Society (MTI) head of advocacy and public affairs Djoko Setijowarno said that 800,000 travelers left Jakarta for Central Java between March 26 and May 10, 2020 (Kompas, 12/5/2020).

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

Residents queue by limiting the distance when they want to take Non-Cash Food Aid at the Shaman District Office, Magelang Regency, Central Java,  on Wednesday (4/29/2020). The assistance of Rp. 200,000 which was channeled through BNI Bank accounts was provided, among others, to help the economy of residents affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Also read: Surviving on Donated Rice

For the economy’s sake?

The government has an excuse: PSBB measures are being eased to save the economy. Economic disruptions will lead to extraordinary social impacts. Unemployment rates will skyrocket. Poor people will suffer even more and vulnerable groups will fall into poverty.

Leading expert at the Office of the Presidential Staff, Donny Gahral Adian, said that productive-age people were allowed to go back to work to prevent this, so long as they work in the 11 sectors exempted from PSBB rules. They must still prioritize health protocols, including social distancing, maintain hygiene and wear masks while at work.

The government said the economy was inseparable from health and that it could not choose between the two. “These are the same ecosystem. The government thinks multidimensionally to sustain life as the economy and health are not two separate issues,” said another staff at the office, Dany Amrul Ichdan.

The government’s economic stimuli have not been an effective solution. Continuing to shut down the economy is not an option.

These assessments gained support from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) economic department head Yose Rizal Damuri and Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) deputy chair Shinta W Kamdani. Both said the world had been hit hard and that maintaining strict PSBB measures was no longer an option. “The government’s economic stimuli have not been an effective solution. Continuing to shut down the economy is not an option. We have to reopen but we have to observe the presence of red zones, green zones, certain sectors and, most importantly, health protocols,” Shinta said.

Yose Rizal said the war against Covid-19 was a marathon not a sprint. “We will have the proper amount of energy and be able to breathe if our economy improves, our social condition is good and our political system is supportive. If we wish to run a marathon but we force our energy, we will run out of breath and be defeated by the virus,” he said.

Nevertheless, studies have shown that, in pandemic-triggered economic crises, the priority must always be flattening the curve before economic recovery. Pandemic-triggered economic crises can never be addressed as long as the curve is not flattened.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Prospective travelers who fail to get a bus out of the Greater Jakarta area in the Baranangsiang Bus Terminal, Bogor City, on Saturday (25/4/2020). The condition of this terminal is devoid of the hustle and bustle of passengers after the implementation of the Large-Scale Social Restrictions and also the prohibition of going home to prevent the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.

A study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) assistant professor Emil Verner and Federal Reserve economists Sergio Correia and Stephen Luck shows that, based on human civilization’s journey through history, strong and effective virus mitigation will accelerate economic recovery.

The study, titled “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu” and released on March 31, 2020, observed the flu outbreak that hit the US in 1918-1919. The research shows that consistent implementation of physical and social interaction restrictions was the key to economic recovery.

Cities that imposed social restrictions earlier during the pandemic experienced 5-percent higher productivity in manufacturing than other cities, once the pandemic ended in 1923. Furthermore, cities that did not ease social restrictions hastily experienced 6.5-percent higher productivity in manufacturing.

“We do not find evidence that cities that acted more aggressively in public health were experiencing difficulties in economic recovery. Quite the contrary, cities with strict implementation of health emergency protocols rebounded more quickly in economic terms,” said Emil Verner, as quoted in the introduction of his research release at the MIT official website.

Therefore, the government is currently aiming to conduct mass testing.

Donny Gahral said that the President had stated that easing PSBB measures would only be possible when field data showed thorough epidemiological indicators. Therefore, the government is currently aiming to conduct mass testing. “This is so we can get a more complete picture of Covid-19 and we can predict when the peak will arrive. We aim to flatten the curve as soon as possible so that we can reopen the economy soon,” Donny said.

One day, when Indonesia has truly flattened the curve, we can have true peace with Covid-19 and bid it farewell. However, as of today, making peace with the disease and returning to business as usual is not an option.