Ramadan in the Middle of Pandemic

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

A Prasetyantoko

What will the world look like after the coronavirus pandemic? To be honest, no one knows. However, everyone has the opportunity to help determine the post-COVID-19 world.

According to Worldometers report (26/4/2020), nearly 3 million people have contracted COVID-19 and more than 200,000 people have died from it. If after the situation gradually recovers we just return to old habits, then we will lose great momentum.

Arundhati Roy, Indian novelist, wrote a reflective column in the Financial Times (4/4) titled "Pandemic is a Portal", saying the humanitarian tragedy is a gateway from one world to the next. So then, what will the next world look like?

Also read : Banks Must Act Countercyclically to Fight Coronavirus

In 1918, the world was hit by the Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than 50 million people. According to the Historia website, about 1.8 million Javanese residents died from a pandemic that spread along with the movement of the army at the end of World War I. One of the biggest pandemics in world civilization was the Black Death in 1347-1351, which killed no less than 200 million people in the world.

The Guardian (22/3) reported that William Shakespeare completed King Lear, Macbeth and Antony and Cleopatra manuscripts when London was under a quarantine. The Telegraph (2 0/4) reported that Isaac Newton discovered the principle of gravity while staying at home due to social restrictions in London (1665). A pandemic is a disaster, but also a blessing that has an important meaning for world change.

Also read : Indonesia to Mitigate Covid-19 Outbreak’s Economic Effects

Kompas

Emergency workers wearing full protective suits transport a patient to an ambulance at the Severo Ochoa Hospital in Leganes, Spain, Saturday, April 18, 2020. Spain has eased this week the conditions of Europe\'s strictest lockdown, allowing manufacturing, construction and other nonessential activity in an attempt to cushion the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Economic activities

Ramadan in the midst of a pandemic does not have any impact at all on the economy. Usually, consumption increases before Ramadan until Idul Fitri. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), two months before Idul Fitri, inflation usually rises due to an increase in demand. In 2019, the highest monthly inflation of 0.68 percent occurred in May due to the effects of Ramadan and Idul Fitri. In that month, the money supply grew by 7.8 percent or by Rp 5,861.3 trillion. Idul Fitri has always contributed a positive seasonal effect to economic growth because household spending comprises about 55 percent of Indonesia\'s gross domestic product (GDP).

This year, the economy is "fasting" due to COVID-19, which forces us to work, study, and worship at home. Large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) have been implemented since April 10 to halt the spread of the disease. Now, as many as 18 regions have implemented the same policy. Idul Fitri is usually accompanied by a massive movement of the people. But, due to the PSBB or the partial lockdown, the traditional Idul Fitri mudik (exodus) was banned.

This year it is certain that the Idul Fitri effect will not occur due to the mudik ban as stipulated in Transportation Ministerial Regulation No. 25/2020 concerning transportation control during the Idul Fitri 1441 Hijri. The ban was imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Also read : Pandemic, Recession, and Mitigation

The pandemic has caused total stagnation in the economy. However, the government has issued a financial stimulus package to support the economy so that it will not further worsen.

The government policy framework was made to save lives from disease and the livelihoods affected by the economic stagnation. After the disease can be controlled, the economic recovery program begins. These steps are carried out through government regulations in lieu of law or the third stimulus package.

Also read : Analyzing the Global Spread of Covid-19

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

People wait for a bus at Poris Plawad Terminal in Tangerang municipality, Banten, on 22 April 2020. People chose to participate in the Idul Fitri mudik (exodus) early before the ban took place on Friday (24/4/2020). The mudik ban, which aims to curb the spread of COVID-19, also took place in cities enforcing large-scale social restrictions.

The government has allocated about Rp 405 trillion or 2.5 percent of GDP to finance mitigation efforts to cope with the impact of COVID-19. Of the total, Rp 75 trillion will be used for the health sector, Rp 110 trillion for social protection, Rp 70.1 trillion for industry support and Rp 150 trillion for an economic recovery program. Social protection is needed to help vulnerable groups survive.

This Ramadan forces us to have deep reflections. First, a pandemic in the economic perspective is an event in which the nature can no longer sustain the speed of development dynamics. In the financial sector there is the term "Minsky Moment" or the event of a sudden collapse in asset prices due to excessive speculation in the previous phase. The Sunday Times (2 9/3) mentions that the coronavirus triggers another type of "Minsky Moment". In the post-pandemic era, the development agenda should be reformulated so that it will give more focus to balance, including with nature.

The only thing we can learn from history is we never learn from history.

Second, Ramadan can be an opportunity to maintain national solidarity through compassion-oriented activities for the needy. Social protection stimulus programs will have a multiplier effect with community participation. We hope that the spirit of compassion becomes a collective experience that leaves a mark that lasts well after the pandemic ends; such activities can be institutionalized through various customs or policies. That way, we will be able to safely move to the “next world”.

History teaches us that the humans are always stronger than a pandemic with various innovations that emerge after the pandemic. Hopefully Friedrich Hegel was wrong when he said, “The only thing we can learn from history is we never learn from history.”

This phrase is quoted by Slavojiek, contemporary Slovak philosopher, in his latest book, Panic Pandemic! Covid-19 Shakes the World.