Restrictions Not Enough

KOMPAS/WISNU WIDIANTORO

Windows at Hotel Indonesia Kempinski in Central Jakarta are illuminated to form a heart symbol on Sunday (26/4/2020). In addition to expressing hope that the COVID-19 pandemic will end soon, the symbol expressed gratitude for the medical workers who continue treating COVID-19 patients.

The wide-ranging social and travel restrictions are not enough to reduce the number of Covid-19 cases. The policies must be accompanied by mass testing.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Even though the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) and the ban on travel to and from Jakarta have significantly reduced the movement of people, the policies are considered insufficient to reduce the spread of Covid-19. The policies must be accompanied by mass testing and contact tracing, because many people infected with the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 have gone undetected.

"The proportion of the population staying at home is increasing, but no plan has yet been made on monitoring and evaluating the PSBB,” epidemiologist Pandu Riono at the University of Indonesia\'s Public Health Faculty (FKM UI) said in Jakarta on Sunday (26/4/2020).

Also read: Mudik Ban to Cut COVID-19 Spread

Airport closures and bans on traveling to and from Jabodetabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi), the epicenter of the Indonesian outbreak, could help prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, they have not significantly reduced the number of new cases because mass testing and contact tracing have not been optimal, especially since some people are still venturing out of their houses and joining gatherings.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

A restaurant displays its changed schedule during the Islamic month of Ramadan in Semarang, Central Java, on Sunday (26/4/2020). Many restaurants and food stalls have limited their opening hours in accordance with government policy.

Reduction in cases

The FKM UI’s SimcovID team has modeled the impact of the mudik ban on reducing the number of Covid-19 cases. The model suggests that the ban on the traditional Idul Fitri exodus has reduced the number of COVID-19 cases in Java that need treatment by 200,000.

The analysis conducted by the SimcovID team showed that the movement of provincial residents to Jakarta had decreased more than 50 percent between 31 March and 17 April compared to several days before the period.

Analysis based on data from Facebook’s GeoInsights portal showed that on April 10, 2020, when the PSBB was implemented in Jakarta, 75 percent fewer people traveled from Jakarta to other areas.

Epidemiologist Panji Hadisoemarto of Padjadjaran University in Bandung, who is on the SimcovID team, explained that mobility in Jakarta had indeed declined, but not enough to stop the spread of COVID-19. More serious prevention efforts were needed.

Also read: Greater Jakarta Locked Down

Modeling estimates from the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) projects that global COVID-19 cases will decrease 97 percent by May and that the pandemic will end by December 2020. The Singaporean epidemic is projected to end in June, while the number of new cases in Indonesia is estimated to begin declining in June.

The SUTD model is based on confirmed cases, even though testing in Indonesia is minimal, around 2,000 people per day.

However, biostatistician Iqbal Elyasar of the Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit (EOCRU) said that this model might not reflect the Indonesian condition. "The SUTD model is based on confirmed cases, even though testing in Indonesia is minimal, around 2,000 people per day," he said.

KOMPAS/BAHANA PATRIA GUPTA

Workers prepare food packages at Convention Hall in Surabaya, East Java, on Sunday (26/4/2020). The Surabaya administration is distributing food packages to 68,000 low-income families that did not receive government assistance. The packages consist of rice, instant noodles, abon (shredded meat), peanut sauce and tempeh.

According to Covid-19 government spokesman Achmad Yurianto, Indonesia had 8,882 confirmed cases of Covid-19, with 743 deaths and 1,107 recovered as of 26 April 2020. This means the death rate in Indonesia remains 8.36 percent, far higher than the global rate of 6.93 percent. The high rate of coronavirus deaths in Indonesia is caused in part by the lack of testing that has left many cases undetected.

The records showed 209,040 persons under monitoring (ODPs), a daily increase of 2,129 cases, and 19,648 patients under surveillance (PDPs), or an increase of 564 cases. The significant increase in the number of ODPs indicates potential community transmission, while the increase in the number of PDPs indicates an increase in the number of tests.

Research led by Giulia Giordano at the University of Trento in Italy and published on 22 April in the Nature Medicine journal suggests that social restrictions, even regional quarantines, will not stop the spread of COVID-19 on their own.

Social restrictions must be combined with mass testing and contact tracing efforts.

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

A health worker gives a homeless man medicine and vitamins at Gelanggang Remaja sports complex in Karet Tengsin, Tanah Abang, Central Jakarta, on Sunday (26/4/2020). The Jakarta administration has designated all of the citys sports complexes to house homeless people for the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the country. Many more people have been unable to pay rent due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Need stimulus

Mass transit companies have asked for government assistance to save the sector amidst the Covid-19 epidemic. "We are not operating at all. The employees are staying at home. The drivers have returned to their hometowns," said Nyoman Sudiarta, the chairman of the Bali Tourist Transportation Association.

"The latest data indicates that there are almost 1.3 million Organda [Organization of Land Transportation Owners] workers in Indonesia," said Organda secretary-general Ateng Aryono.

Government support such as direct cash assistance, tax relaxation, and financial stimulus is especially needed to help drivers and other employees of public transportation companies and to ensure the continuity of the transportation sector. Bus operators have proposed that their fleets be used to transport cargo.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

People keep a safe distance from each other while lining up for free rice at the Kodim 0503 military command headquarters in West Jakarta on Sunday (26/4/2020). The aid was distributed by vending machine, and each person received 1.5 kilograms of rice. The military command gave out 1,000 packages of rice in one day. The donation was made jointly by the Army, the Agriculture Ministry and state lender Bank BNI. Food from the donations will be distributed over the course of two months.

Since the implementation of the travel restriction policy, PT Jasa Marga noted a significant decline in the volume of traffic departing Jakarta at a number of tollgates on Saturday (25/4) compared to the previous day. One of these was the Cikampek Utama 1 tollgate on the Jakarta-Cikampek Toll Road, which recorded a 59 percent decline in departing traffic to 11,355 vehicles heading east towards the Trans-Java Toll Road.

We have asked them to check their health and go into self-quarantine.

However, the travel restriction had not entirely stopped people from traveling to their hometowns. Many residents in Jakarta and surrounding areas still continued to travel to the Central Java regencies of Brebes and Tegal. "They are going home because their workplaces are closed. We have asked them to check their health and go into self-quarantine," said the Brebes Covid-19 task force secretary, Djoko Gunawan.

Tegal reported 1,910 recent arrivals through various channels, including illicit means.

The head of the Tegal transportation office, Akhmad Uwes Qoroni, explained that many travelers had used private cars. Some travelers from Jakarta had changed their transportation mode along their journey to avoid checkpoints.

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

A hiking trail to Mount Telomoyo is marked closed in Pandean village, Ngablak, Magelang, Central Java, on Sunday (26/4/2020) because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Other trails and national parks have also been closed to curb the spread of the virus.

Meanwhile, quality management head Mahsun Muhammadi of PT Bio Farma (Persero) said that the company was researching plasma therapy in coordination with the Army Hospital and the Eijkman Institute of Molecular Biology. The plasma was taken from patients who had recovered from COVID-19. (AIK/DNA/CAS/WER/MTK/XTI/DIT/NCA/JOL/MEL/IKI)