Analyzing the Global Spread of Covid-19
A number of countries, such as the United States, Spain and Italy, are entering the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, countries in Asia, such as China and South Korea, are facing the second wave of the pandemic.
The epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic are now in Europe and America. A number of countries, such as the United States, Spain and Italy, are entering the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, countries in Asia, such as China and South Korea, are facing the second wave of the pandemic.
The situation of the Covid-19 outbreak has now changed. A few months ago, China and countries in Asia were wary of the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid-19. Now, China and countries in Asia are wary of the entry of people from western countries.
Since March 26, the United States is the country with most confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the world. By that day, 83,840 people in the US had tested positive for Covid-19 and more than a thousand people had died. This figure exceeded the number of confirmed cases in China which at that time had reached 81,780 cases.
Now, China and countries in Asia are wary of the entry of people from western countries.
By April 7, after more than doubling within a week, the number of confirmed cases in the US had reached 366,614. With that number of cases the US still ranks first.
In second place is Spain with 136,675 cases, followed by Italy with 132,547 cases.
Covid-19 cases in each of the three countries exceed those in China. The number of confirmed cases in China reached 82,665 cases, increasing by less than 1 percent over a week.
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Pandemic peak
The number of daily new confirmed cases gives an impression of the spread of Covid-19. Visualized on a curve, this data points to an increase or decrease in the number of new cases.
If the number of new cases continues to increase every day, the curve will become steeper. However, if the number of new daily cases declines, the curve will become “flatter”.
At present, countries such as the United States, Italy and Spain are reaching the peak of the pandemic. This is indicated by the increasing growth of the Covid-19 case.
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Covid-19 was first reported in the United States on January 21, when a man around 30 years of age tested positive after briefly traveling to Wuhan, China.
After that, more tests and tracking were carried out, revealing 5 new cases within a week. The number of new cases increased every day. On April 1, the number of daily new cases reached a preliminary record of 24,000.
In the past week, the average finding of Covid-19 cases reached 19,200 per day. While in the previous week, the average cases reported were only around 8,500 cases per day.
The same thing was experienced in Spain. The first confirmed case from this country was reported on January 31. One in five samples tested positive for Covid-19. The sample was owned by a German patient treated at Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe Hospital.
In two months, the number of cases has increased. On April 1, the number of daily new cases reached 9,222. This number is the highest number during the last two months.
Meanwhile, in the past week, the average reported number of new Covid-19 was 7,800 a day. The number increased compared to one week before. In the previous week, only 4,800 cases were reported a day.
Italy experienced a peak of the pandemic in the eighth week after the first case was reported on January 31. Within seven days, it reported 5,600 new cases a day, while the highest number of new cases reported was 6,600 on 22 March.
Even though it became a global spotlight due to the rapid increase in Covid-19 cases, the curve of new discovered Covid-19 cases has gradually declined since March 23. As of April 1, the number of new cases was 4,053.
Flattening curve
Meanwhile, the curve of new cases in some Asian countries, such as China and South Korea, has begun to flatten. This indicates a decrease in the number of new cases every day as well as the peak of the epidemic in the country.
China, the first country to report a Covid-19 case at the end of December 2019, has succeeded in suppressing the increase in the number of cases. China experienced its pandemic peak in the seventh week.
The average number of confirmed cases that week reached 4,700 cases per day. The highest number of new cases recorded that week was 15,000.
After that, the number of new cases decreased, the curve flattened. As of March 21, China reported zero cases of local transmission in three consecutive days.
The same thing happened in South Korea. The first confirmed case was reported on January 20. After that, the number of new cases increased to a peak in the seventh week.
At that time, the average number of cases per day reached 609. After that, the number of new cases being reported decreased. In the past week, the average number of new Covid-19 cases was only 92.7 cases per day.
The pandemic is not over
Based on the trends of Covid-19 cases, there are two groups. First is the group of countries that are still in the outbreak period. Within this group are the United States, Spain, Italy and Indonesia.
Second is a group of countries that have succeeded in reducing the spread of viral infections. That is, the mitigation of health disasters in these countries is at the stage of recovery. Countries in this group are China and South Korea.
The curve of new cases in some Asian countries, such as China and South Korea, has begun to flatten.
Both groups are still equally struggling in dealing with this pandemic. The United States, Spain, Italy and Indonesia are still struggling with case tracking to prevent further spread. On the other hand, because they are at the peak of the pandemic, these countries are also responsible for providing optimal services to patients to reduce mortality.
Meanwhile, for China and South Korea, even though the curve of new cases is flattening, the two countries are also still holding back the rate of transmission. An issue of concern is transmission from imported cases or infections from overseas transmission.
The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that the pandemic is not over in Asia. The challenge is to prevent a reemergence. This is because there is an increase in new cases coming from abroad. On March 18, China reported 34 new cases originating from people returning to China.
The increase in Covid-19 cases outside Asian countries has driven people to return to their countries, which raises the risks in the country visited. If this happens, countries that have succeeded in reducing the number of Covid-19 cases may face a second wave of the pandemic.
Restrictions on entry from outside the country are still in place. The Chinese government limits flights into the country.
In addition, migrants entering the country are also subject to controls. The government routinely checks the condition of migrants placed in special hotels through the WeChat application. Every day, they must report their body temperature. The government also uses tracking features on their cellphones.
Meanwhile in Hong Kong, the government requires migrants to quarantine at home for 14 days. They are given an electronic tracking bracelet that can report to the Hong Kong Police and Health Department if the user leaves his place of residence.
Staying at home is a big contribution to the world in a pandemic.
The Covid-19 pandemic will last a long time, considering that many countries are still in the phase of increasing cases, so the task for governments across the world is to practice international social restrictions.
The people can participate by doing activities from home to break the chain of transmission of the coronavirus. Staying at home is a big contribution to the world in a pandemic.
As long as there are pandemics in various countries, a second wave of Covid-19 is still possible in any country. For this reason, the fight against the pandemic continues to require a shared global commitment. (KOMPAS RESEARCH CENTER)