Sailing Amid the Clashing Waves of Two World Powers
Conflict and civil war persist in several countries, especially in the Middle East (Syria, Yemen and Libya). Another war almost began between US and Iran.
By
MH Samsul Hadi
·5 minutes read
In 2020, now only a few days away, the Republic of Indonesia will be 75. Throughout 2019, the closing year in the second decade of this third millennium, the world saw protests across various countries with people demanding changes in government. Meanwhile, there is still no end in sight to the clash between the US and China, two global powers struggling for world supremacy through a trade war.
Conflict and civil war persist in several countries, especially in the Middle East (Syria, Yemen and Libya). Another war almost began between US and Iran. On the Korean Peninsula, after negotiations with the US failed, North Korea has continued to create tension through a series of missile tests.
International relations experts have adopted varying perspectives in seeking a common thread through all these global events. Some have viewed it as a decline of the liberal order based on international rules.
The rise of China and its clash with the US reminds one of the theory called the “Thucydides Trap”. “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled in Sparta, that made war inevitable,” said the ancient Greek historian.
Thucydides was recounting the dangerous tensions between the emerging city of Athens and the ruling city-state of Sparta more than 2,400 years ago. The ancient historical tale is often used as a reminder to manage today’s clash between the US and China so it does not lead to war.
Under such a situation, it is highly vital that Indonesia finds a proper stance. Therefore, it was an apt moment when in June, ASEAN adopted the Indo-Pacific Outlook initiated by Indonesia. The Outlook was a highly valuable asset in the effort to sail amid the clashing waves of the world’s powers, including the American-Chinese trade war.
On the other hand, experts like Francis Fukuyama have focused on the rise of identity politics. It is a mainstream concept – instead of a fringe idea – that explains many events in today’s world. Political developments in Indonesia in the past several years can also be linked to this wave of identity politics.
Identity politics has gained strength amid the liberal world order’s failure to resolve economic injustices and social inequalities.
Identity politics has gained strength amid the liberal world order’s failure to resolve economic injustices and social inequalities. The sense and perception of marginalization are abused to root these identities, be they national, religious, ethnic, sexual, gender-based or others (Foreign Affairs, September/October 2018).
“Illiberal” hegemony
The election of Donald Trump as the US President and the victory of the pro-Brexit group in the UK in the 2016 election and referendum are the most prominent examples of the rise of identity politics and the decline of the liberal world order. Since his inauguration in 2017, Trump has totally changed the US model of hegemony.
He has chosen competition over cooperation, protectionism over free trade, unilateralism over multilateralism and authoritarianism over democracy. Barry R. Posen, the Director Emeritus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) Security Studies Program, calls this “illiberal hegemony”. The term seeks to illustrate Trump’s grand design of maintaining the economic and military superiority of the US as well as its position in shaping security in various regions of the world by departing from democracy and multilateral agreements.
Tensions in various regions throughout 2019 have been the effects of his approach. The Arabian Gulf, for instance, heated up between May and October through assaults on and seizures of tankers, Iran’s shooting down a US drone, the attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and the missile attacks on Iranian tankers. On 20 June 2019, the US was close to bombing Iran before the attack was called off at the eleventh hour.
The root of these tensions was the US’s decision to withdraw from the 2018 Iran nuclear deal. The decision was soon followed by a “maximum pressure” policy with the return of economic sanctions against Iran.
In the Asia-Pacific, the US-China clash has taken form as not just a trade war, but as security issues also.
In the Asia-Pacific, the US-China clash has taken form as not just a trade war, but as security issues also. ASEAN should be wary of this development. Among the heated issues in the US-China competition is the South China Sea. Four ASEAN countries – Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam and the Philippines – plus Taiwan, are involved in claim disputes with China in the maritime region. The tug-of-war of interests between the US and China have frequently affected ASEAN’s internal dynamics.
A report from the 2019 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) showed that the 2018 defense spending of the US and China accounted for half of the world’s defense spending. The US and China increased their respective defense spending by 4.6 percent to US$649 billion and by 5 percent to US$250 billion.
Under such conditions, Japan has ranked the Chinese military second as its focus of interest after the US military for the first time. NATO has also intensified monitoring of the Chinese military. China’s military might was partly displayed at the 70-year anniversary of the PRC on 1 Oct. 2019, when Beijing presented the Dongfeng (DF)-41, a supersonic nuclear missile with a range of 15,000 kilometers.
At the end of 2019, the pro-Brexit group has secured a decisive victory in the UK election and is attempting to accelerate Brexit in 2020. In the US, Trump has been impeached by the House of Representatives. He may yet survive the impeachment trial by the Senate to be reelected in the presidential election in November 2020, which would reinforce the superpower’s identity politics, as Fukuyama says. Whoever wins – Trump or the eventual Democratic Party candidate – many observers say that it will not bring an end to the rivalry between the US and China.